Jun 16 2023 | Nº. 71

Editorial

June marks the ten-year anniversary of the street demonstrations that rattled Brazilian politics in what observers then said was the largest expression of civil discontent in the country’s history. On June 17, 2013, for example, over two million Brazilians took to the streets in more than 400 cities. For a decade, scholars have debated the causes and significance of those demonstrations. Nobody disagrees, however, that they set the stage for the tumultuous years that followed, defined by the razor-thin reelection of then-president Dilma Rousseff in 2014, her impeachment two years later, and the election of a far-right extremist in 2018. Indeed, the memory of June 2013 remains a contentious topic in Brazilian politics. A new poll conducted by Ipec/O GLOBO found that only 16 percent of Brazilians were proud to have supported the protests in 2013. Among Bolsonaro voters, that figure was 21 percent compared to a mere 13 percent among Lula supporters. Lula supporters were also more likely to say they regretted supporting the demonstrations than those who voted for the ex-president. One way to read these numbers is as a reflection of a sense among right-wing voters that the events of 2013 advanced their agenda, or at least that more Bolsonaro supporters feel that way than do Lula’s. 

It is hard to imagine demonstrations of that size occurring again anytime soon—although the protests were, of course, a surprise when they happened—but that does not mean the Lula government is not wary of the costs of misadministration. One of the common refrains of the first five months of Lula’s unprecedented third term is that his mandate is fragile. Several commentators have maintained that Lula must govern with the mindset that his was the narrowest of majorities rather than appealing excessively to his traditional base. To fail in that regard is to invite a right-wing resurgence in four years. This week brought some good economic news that seemed to validate the approach that Lula has adopted, in particular by naming a relative moderate from his party to manage the nation’s economy. On Wednesday, June 14, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad celebrated the fact that S&P Global Ratings revised the outlook on its long-term global scale ratings on Brazil from stable to positive. “S&P, which cut the nation’s credit score to junk back in 2015, cited better-than-expected data and the government’s emerging framework for fiscal policy as reasons for the outlook change,” according to Vinicius Andrade and Martha Viotti Beck. Economic growth has also modestly beat expectations, a sign that good personnel choices could be meeting good fortune as the Lula administration nears the six-month mark. 

There have been fewer breakthroughs on international affairs, although a door apparently opened this week as Celso Amorim, Lula’s key foreign policy advisor, spoke on the phone with the chief of staff to Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy. After a rough patch of diplomatic passive aggression between Brazil, which seeks a mediating role in Russia’s ongoing war on its neighbor, and Ukraine, this week’s developments signal that maybe a path to productive dialogue remains. It still seems a longshot, but contributing to a peaceful resolution to the war would mark a major foreign policy contribution from Lula, who is clearly eager to make a mark on the world stage.

Highlights

• BOLSONARO TRIAL. On Thursday, June 22, the Superior Electoral Court, which oversees Brazilian elections, will start a trial that could make former President Jair Bolsonaro ineligible to run for public office. The lawsuit, filed by the Democratic Labor Party (PDT), accuses Bolsonaro of having used the government machinery in favor of his own election campaign. The case in question occurred in July 2022, when Bolsonaro summoned 40 foreign diplomatic representatives to his official residence, Palácio da Alvorada, to express unfounded suspicions about the reliability of Brazilian electronic voting machines. According to accusations against Bolsonaro, the attacks on the electoral system were part of an orchestrated campaign to undermine the credibility of the elections and illegally prevent the victory of his opponent, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

• COUP D'ETAT. The Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry that is investigating the attempted coup d'état of January 8, 2023 announced this Tuesday, June 13, the summoning of two Bolsonarist generals to testify: Augusto Heleno, who was head of the Institutional Security Office under Bolsonaro, and Walter Braga Netto, who was minister of defense, presidential chief of staff, and candidate for vice president on Bolsonaro's ticket in 2022. In addition to them, Lieutenant Colonel Mauro Cid, a former assistant to Bolsonaro, and Anderson Torres, the former minister of justice, who was secretary of security for the Federal District government in Brasília at the time of the attack on the buildings that seat the three branches of government. Opposition parliamentarians also approved the summoning of Gonçalves Dias, who was head of the Institutional Security Office at the time of the attacks. GDias, as he is known, was considered Lula's trusted man, but was exonerated after recordings from the closed circuit of cameras at the Palácio do Planalto, the seat of the Brazilian executive branch, showed the reserve soldier talking to the invaders in the corridors from the presidential floor of the building.

• BILLION DOLLAR FRAUD. New documents released this week show that one of the biggest corporate scandals in Brazil's history could reach the equivalent of more than US$230 billion, which is more than double what was previously thought. The case involves the fraudulent management and falsification of accounting data at Lojas Americanas, one of the largest retail chains in the country. The scandal, which surfaced for the first time in January 2023, involves three of the richest men in the country: Jorge Paulo Lemann, Marcel Telles and Carlos Alberto Sicupira, and reveals the complacency of the financial system and public bodies with business tycoons in the private sector, in contrast to a penal system that is traditionally tougher on minor crimes committed by poor people throughout the country.

• NO MAJORITY. Since taking office, President Lula has faced difficulties in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of the Brazilian Congress. This is because his electoral victory was achieved by a very narrow margin – just 2 million votes – and because the leftist parties, which supported him, did not get a majority of seats in the lower house. Only a quarter of the 513 seats in the Chamber of Deputies are on the left. The two majority blocs are made up of politicians who were formerly allies of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The block led by Arthur Lira (Popular Party, PP), the current president of the Chamber, is composed mainly of four political parties: PP, União Brasil, the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) and the Democratic Labor Party (PDT), and they add up to 174 of the 513 seats. On the other hand, the Social Democratic Party (PSD) the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), and Republicans have a total of 142 deputies.

• DIFFICULT NEGOTIATION. To deal with a hostile Chamber of Deputies, the Lula government makes use of two common tools in Brazil: the release of funds for parliamentarians to spend on public works in their states and municipalities of origin and the offer of positions in ministries and government bodies. But even the division of positions in the government has been causing friction with rival groups within the Right. The biggest problem this week involves the Ministry of Tourism. União Brasil is trying to unseat Minister Daniela Carneiro and put Celso Sabino in her place. The two are from the same party, but belong to rival wings. Local newspapers also report the interest of right-wing parties in taking control of the Ministry of Health, which has the biggest budget within the government. But even this division of positions does not guarantee support. Elmar Nascimento, the leader of União Brasil in the Chamber of Deputies, has said that he cannot force members of the party to vote in favor of the Lula government.

• ZANIN IN THE SUPREME COURT. Lula's former personal lawyer, Cristiano Zanin, had a week full of meetings with right-wing senators and deputies, including evangelical leaders and historic Bolsonarism supporters. Zanin will have to go through a confirmation hearing in the Senate so that he can take over the vacancy that was left by former Supreme Court Justice Ricardo Lewandowski. The meetings in Brasilia are a way of gathering support for his nomination to be approved. The confirmation hearing is scheduled for June 21. Lula's former lawyer has stated that he will recuse himself from voting in cases involving the current president, due to a conflict of interests.

• EUROPEAN UNION. Ursula von der Leyen, the German president of the European Commission, met with President Lula in Brasília on June 12 to discuss the free trade agreement between the European Union and Mercosur. The meeting showed a convergence of interests in seeing the agreement approved, but Lula was disappointed with the idea of the Europeans requiring mandatory compliance with a number of environmental clauses that were not set forth in 2019, when negotiations began. The Brazilian president complained about what he called "distrust" and the risk of "sanctions" against Mercosur. Lula's main concern is a European device that would prevent the purchase of agricultural or livestock products that originate from environmentally devastated areas. Lula considers the provision too rigid.

• RAPPORTEUR'S VISIT. On June 7, Soledad García Muñoz, Special Rapporteur on Economic, Social and Environmental Rights of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, began a ten-day visit to Brazil. After meetings in São Paulo, Brasília, Salvador and Rio de Janeiro, García Muñoz will produce a report on the situation of human rights in Brazil. The visit of the rapporteur is a response to a request made by 25 civil society organizations, including the WBO, and was approved by the Brazilian government.

Feature Article

by Túlio S H Ferreira, Davi Figueiredo Gonçalves Vilar, Maria Eduarda Costa Marques de Moraes e Silva, Samuel Ângelus Henrique Farias

First 100 Days of Lula's Foreign Policy: A Glimpse of the Headlines Around the World

he foreign policy of countries is directly related to the identification and defense of national interests (LAFER, 2004). The previous governments of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2010) aimed to project Brazil internationally in a universalistic tone, seeking to consolidate the country as a global player. Thus, it was largely guided by multilateralism, regional integration, and the prestige gained through presidential diplomacy (AMORIM, 2010; RICUPERO, 2017). In the Lula 3 government, it is expected that, to some extent, his foreign policy will express a resumption of Brazil's foreign policy carried out during his previous terms. However, despite the fact that this article does not address the profound discussion of changes in the international system, it should be noted that there are currently significantly different contextual aspects from those expressed in the international scenario of the first decade of the twenty-first century.

This brief article considers, in a narrower sense, the media, which is an important variable in the analysis of foreign policy. More specifically, it seeks to present how, in the first 100 days of the government, the foreign policy of Lula 3 was reported in the headlines of four media outlets in different regions of the world. This focus is justified because the media emerges as a lens for observing external actions and can influence the decision-making process of foreign policy through framing and attempts to set agendas (COHEN, 1963).

To do so, we selected a set of news articles published in The Guardian (United Kingdom), The New York Times (United States), RT (Russia), and G1 (Brazil). The objective was to analyze a portion of the content and sentiment expressed in the headlines of those articles that mentioned the foreign policy of the Lula 3 government. The analysis focused solely on the headlines as they serve the purpose of announcing the news and capturing the reader's attention, providing a relevant indication of the sentiment intended by the media outlet. The findings are shown in the graph below:

Number of articles published about Brazil’s foreign policy

The Brazilian news portal G1 published 50 news articles containing the keywords "foreign policy" and "Brazil." Upon analyzing the headlines of the collected news items, there was a high frequency of mentions of President Lula. Similarly, the most cited countries are the United States, China, and Argentina. This indicates that the news followed the destinations of presidential visits in the early days of his term in office. Lula met with President Joe Biden in Washington, D.C. on February 9th. G1 highlighted the reestablishment of bilateral agendas related to the environment and the importance of issue of "democracy" in the presidential dialogue. The newspaper mentioned the United States in contrast to the information about Lula's visit to China. This comparative dynamic was portrayed in the news from the perspective of U.S. government concerns about Brazil's approach to the Chinese.

Similarly, the newspaper followed Brazil's domestic politics and preparations for the meeting in Beijing. Commercial and economic issues were the main topics. This coverage highlighted the "change of course" in Brazil's foreign policy regarding China in comparison to the previous Bolsonaro government (2018-22). Lastly, G1 closely covered Lula's meetings with Argentine President Alberto Fernández, emphasizing the friendly bilateral relations between the two presidents and the integrative potential of the two countries. Below, there is a word cloud summarizing the most used words in the texts, as well as a graph showing the average sentiment of the analyzed texts.

The Russian newspaper RT published only one specific news article regarding Brazil. This report referred to the Brazilian proposal for the "Peace Club" to address the Russian-Ukraine War and appeared precisely during the meeting between President Lula and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. Below, there is a word cloud and a graph depicting the average appearance of different topics in the article.

In the U.S. newspaper The New York Times, there were seven news articles that directly or indirectly involved the foreign policy of the Lula 3 government. They highlighted topics related to democracy, the climate agenda, and political decisions involving Russia and the war in Ukraine. They emphasized the connection between the current Brazilian government and the democratic agenda, with Lula 3 being associated with the idea of a "return to democracy." The countries "Ukraine" and "Russia" appeared next in the headlines. The articles emphasized Brazil's position in the search for consensus and peace. However, the newspaper reported a divergence between Presidents Biden and Lula regarding the provision of weapons to Ukraine. Regarding the Amazon, the newspaper demonstrated alignment between the ideas of Brazil and the United States, with this being an arena for strengthening the foreign relations of these two countries. There was a special focus on the role of Minister Marina Silva with the expectation of reducing illegal deforestation in the Amazon that expressed confidence in Marina's track record in managing environmental issues.

In the British newspaper The Guardian, 29 articles appeared in the World News section. The invasion of the National Congress gained prominence with headlines linking the attack to "Bolsonaro's fascist supporters" and "neo-fascists." The newspaper also drew attention to the recent humanitarian crisis of the Yanomami people. Regarding President Lula, The Guardian mentioned his diplomatic visit to China. The newspaper also referenced the president in relation to his environmental policy and his stance on the Yanomami crisis. Simultaneously, The Guardian also cited accusations of genocide against former President Jair Bolsonaro and operations against illegal mining in indigenous lands. In relation to the War in Ukraine, the editorial focused on President Lula's diplomatic visit to China and his position as a potential mediator in the conflict. The publication emphasized the statements made by the Lula government regarding the conflict, particularly the suggestion by the president of Crimea's secession as a means to appease the war.

This small sample of the treatment of Brazil's foreign policy in the first 100 days of the Lula 3 government highlights some aspects valued in the international political agenda. G1 and The Guardian presented more critical reporting, despite the fact that the majority of the analyzed headlines were neutral or positive. The New York Times showed a predominantly neutral tendency, while the only news article found in RT was clearly positive. Further studies, with a greater number of media outlets and a longer time frame, may contribute to a better understanding of the trends and perceptions reflected in the media regarding the Lula 3 government.

References

Amorim, Celso. “Brazilian foreign policy under President Lula (2003-2010): an overview.” Revista brasileira de política internacional v. 53 (2010): 214-240.

Cohen, Bernard. Press and Foreign Policy. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1963.

Lafer, Celso. A identidade internacional do Brasil e a política externa brasileira: passado, presente e futuro. São Paulo: Editora Perspectiva, 2004

Ricupero, Rubens. A diplomacia na construção do Brasil: 1750-2016. Rio de Janeiro: Versal, 2017

Túlio S H Ferreira is a Research Fellow of the Washington Brazil Office. Davi Figueiredo Gonçalves Vilar, Maria Eduarda Costa Marques de Moraesk e Silva, and Samuel Ângelus Henrique Farias are enrolled in the course in International Relations at the Federal University of Paraíba and are members of the team monitoring Brazilian foreign policy that is coordinated by Túlio Ferreira.

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.