Jan 30 2026| Nº. 191

Editorial

In a week marked by diplomatic calibration, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva underscored his capacity to engage cordially with ideological adversaries who are willing to do business. On Tuesday, January 27, Lula met in Panama with Chile’s president-elect, the right-wing José Antonio Kast, in their first face-to-face encounter since Kast’s election. Both leaders emphasized institutional respect, regional stability, and cooperation on security and trade, while sidestepping the sharper ideological contrasts that defined Kast’s campaign rhetoric. Lula also signaled openness to attending Kast’s inauguration in Santiago on March 1, reinforcing the message that Brasília intends to keep channels open across the political spectrum. Earlier in the week, on Monday, January 26, Lula held a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump, after which he announced plans to travel to Washington in March for an in-person meeting. At the same time, the Brazilian president continues to publicly express doubt about Trump’s proposed Board of Peace. The conversation between both men produced no immediate policy breakthroughs, but each side framed it as constructive, with Lula highlighting the importance of direct dialogue to manage differences and stabilize relations with governments that do not share his worldview.

Domestically, Brazil’s center-right political landscape is showing enduring signs of fragmentation that could undercut the notion of a single opposition challenger to Lula in 2026. The Social Democratic Party (PSD) now has three sitting governors — Ronaldo Caiado (Goiás), Ratinho Júnior (Paraná), and Eduardo Leite (Rio Grande do Sul) —positioned as potential presidential contenders, reflecting an internal pact that will see the party choose a nominee in early April rather than coalesce around a single figure now. While some party leaders argue that multiple candidacies strengthen their strategic flexibility against Lula and the far-right base mobilized around the candidacy of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, others see PSD’s maneuvering as reshaping the broader opposition field, offering a center-right alternative that isn’t strictly tied to the former president. With Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas, the governor of São Paulo widely considered the most formidable potential Lula foe, now backing Flávio, there is no clear path to unity on the right as the presidential race heats up later this year. 

As the 2026 campaign season accelerates, Lula’s own political camp is pushing to ensure competitive slates down-ballot and maximize the president’s coalition reach. Lula’s current Secretary of Institutional Relations, Gleisi Hoffmann, announced this week that she would be stepping down from the cabinet to pursue a senate seat in Paraná. She publicly urged Minister of Finance Fernando Haddad and others to run for elective office this cycle, framing broader candidacies as essential to confronting right-wing forces — a push that underscores internal pressure on Lula’s cabinet to leave executive posts to contest Senate and governorship races. Haddad has resisted such entreaties, reportedly in part because there is no clear path to victory against Tarcísio in São Paulo. Still, the argument for him jumping in is that he is the only person capable of keeping the race within a relatively close margin. Losing by little in key southeastern states will be imperative for Lula to win a fourth term.

Highlights

• High Interest Rates. The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee maintained the basic interest rate in Brazil at 15% per year. This is the fifth consecutive time that the body has kept the rate at this level, which is already one of the highest in the world. The justification is to force inflation to remain within the target. One of the effects is the increase in household debt. In Brazil, about 30% of the population ended 2025 with overdue bills. Indebtedness affects almost 80% of Brazilian households.

• Master Case. The intricate case of the liquidation of Banco Master, suspected of fraud and various other financial crimes, had a new chapter this week with the opening of an investigation against digital influencers who allegedly received payments to post content recommending the bank to investors. At least 40 people were allegedly paid to speak well of the bank and attack the Central Bank, due to the agency's attempts to restrict the actions of its owner, Daniel Vorcaro.

• Return from recess. The Brazilian Congress returns to work next Monday, February 2, after the end of the year-end recess. At least for now, the House leadership preferred to schedule the voting on bills of general interest, instead of promoting proposals related to the amnesty of Jair Bolsonaro and his supporters, imprisoned for attempted coup d'état. Also, for now, the presidents of the Chamber and the Senate have not given any indication of intending to confront the Supreme Federal Court, with whom the legislature ended the year 2025 in dispute.

• Lightning from the heavens. Participants in a far-right protest were struck by lightning, which led to more than 80 people being rescued, this Sunday, January 25, in the capital, Brasília. The protesters were part of a march led by Bolsonaro-supporting federal congressman Nikolas Ferreira, which departed from the outskirts of Belo Horizonte a week ago, heading on foot to the Plaza of the Three Powers in Brasília, where he called for amnesty for the coup plotters of January 8, 2023. The incident drew attention because of the frequent associations that conservative Evangelical activists make between politics and supposed divine signs.

2026 Election Observatory

Kim Kataguiri. Federal Congressman Kim Kataguiri, one of the rising stars of the far right, gave a lengthy interview this week to the Folha de São Paulo newspaper, in which he considered the possibility of running for governor of the state of São Paulo. The deputy's move is noteworthy because it exposes divisions within the conservative camp. Kim was politically linked to the Bolsonaro family, from which he gradually distanced himself in order to strengthen the Free Brazil Movement (MBL), the group in which he originated politically and which recently launched its own party, called Missão (Mission).

Michel Temer. Former president Michel Temer, who was Dilma Rousseff's vice president and became the main protagonist in her impeachment in 2016, declared this week that he does not rule out a presidential candidacy. Although this is a very remote possibility, it has gained relative attention in the news, with Temer saying that voters are tired of the polarization between the Lula and Bolsonaro camps, and may want what he called a more moderate alternative.

News from ABO and social organizations and movements:

Changes at Brasa. Brazilian Studies Association (BRASA) announced important changes this week. Rubia Valente, a former research associate at the WBO, was elected vice-president of the institution, automatically making her the next president in 2028. The current vice-president, Fabio Sá e Silva, also a research associate at the WBO, will assume the presidency at the next congress, to be held in Salvador in July. Ben Cowan, a member of the WBO board, was elected to fill one of the vacancies on BRASA's executive committee. Learn more.

Cerrado and Caatinga. Indigenous peoples from different regions of Mato Grosso began the year gathered in the Quatro Cachoeiras Village in the Utiariti Indigenous Land for the 8th General Elective Assembly of the Federation of Indigenous Peoples and Organizations of Mato Grosso (FEPOIMT). The meeting, held between January 25th and 30th, focused on the selection of new leaders and the debate on political strategies for the coming period, including the 2026 electoral scenario. The assembly took place against a backdrop of progressively worsening conflicts in the countryside in recent years. According to data from the Pastoral Land Commission (CPT), Mato Grosso registered a 137.25% increase in rural conflicts and a 518.27% increase in the number of people involved in 2024, leading the records of land violence in the Central-West region.

Code of conduct. Brazilian civil society organizations launched a campaign this week to collect signatures for greater transparency in the Supreme Federal Court. The campaign includes "Republic, Transparency Brazil," "Tearing Down Walls," and "Well-Spent Budget Movement." The organizations stated: “We express our full support for the adoption of a Code of Conduct, a measure fully aligned with best practices observed in consolidated democracies. This is a timely, necessary, and urgent initiative to restore the image of the Brazilian Supreme Court and other superior courts, and to guide the provision of justice throughout the country.” Click to sign.

Feature Article

Brazil as Host of an Important LGBTQIA+ Conference

By Victor De Wolf*

This article was originally published on the Brasil de Fato website on January 8th and kindly provided by the author for republication in the weekly newsletter and on the Aliança Brazil Office website.

This January 8th, amidst the context of the greatest neo-imperialist offensive against Latin America since the 1960s and 70s, should be dedicated to the dissemination of anti-authoritarian values ​​and social justice. Despite any ideological, moral, and utopian adherence we may have to the idea of ​​democracy, it is fundamental to recognize that it is linked to the idea of ​​equality. Its historical existence is strongly linked to the struggle of social movements and the Left.

In the history of most Latin American and European countries, democracy is linked to objective advances in the living conditions of the working classes. Marta Arretche[1] states that, under democratic regimes, there has been a decrease in inequality through the implementation of social policies to the poorest and to rural areas, with territorial decentralization, even though inequality remains high. Despite the prevailing premise that democracy is linked to the power of the ruling classes, which is theoretically acceptable and empirically observable, the facts demonstrate that the ruling classes and imperialism develop and consolidate their power best in authoritarian situations and dictatorships.

Above all, the coup process in Brazil, which has its symbolic synthesis on January 8, 2023, but whose beginning was with the illegitimate impeachment of Dilma Rousseff, aims to destroy democracy to allow better conditions for the super-exploitation of workers and the poorest. The coup attempt by the Brazilian far-right is, first and foremost, a reactionary effort to diminish the gains and wealth of the poorest. Only in authoritarianism would it be possible to prohibit workers from using the tools to win rights and increase the value of their labor. In democracy, this is far more difficult because workers have the capacity to resist and gain positions within the State.

The dismantling of the January 8th coup attempt, while not definitively extinguishing the authoritarian possibility in Brazil, was fundamental in preventing it at this time. It was the containment actions and, subsequently, the investigation that revealed the extent of the fascist and authoritarian plot. This culminated in Brazil’s largest judicial proceeding, which ended up criminally convicting generals, police chiefs, and a president. If Brazil is not currently experiencing an authoritarian situation and the eradication of fundamental rights, it is due to the struggle of the Brazilian people, which led to the defeat of the neo-fascist candidacy in the 2022 elections. The definitive obstruction of coup attempts in Brazil is related to making the far right politically irrelevant.

*Victor De Wolf holds a master's degree from the Culture and Territoriality Program at the Federal Fluminense University (UFF), is President of ABGLT, representative of Brazil at ILGALAC, and a WBO Advisory Board member.

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.