Jan 9 2026| Nº. 188

Editorial

Brazil’s government moved quickly this week to condemn Washington’s operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, framing the episode as a grave breach of sovereignty and international law. On Saturday, January 3, the foreign ministry criticized the U.S. action and urged a multilateral response through the United Nations, while President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva emphasized the need to contain regional spillover and preserve diplomatic channels. The reaction has been carefully calibrated at home: while Brasília has been firm in opposing U.S. intervention, much of the Brazilian left has conspicuously avoided mounting an explicit defense of Maduro himself, retreating after backlash on social media and amid sensitivity to recent electoral setbacks linked to associations with authoritarian allies. Even so, Lula has found himself in high demand, with international leaders reportedly seeking his input over the weekend and into Monday as Latin America scrambles to respond to this sudden show of force by the Trump administration. 

That diplomatic activism unfolded alongside renewed momentum on the proposed trade deal between the European Union and Mercosul, another long-running effort. After years of stalemate, European officials signaled this week that the agreement may finally be within reach, following moves by Brussels to shore up support among skeptical member states. Italy, viewed as a potential holdout due to domestic agricultural pressure, has in recent days sent multiple signals that it could back the pact, potentially shifting the internal balance inside the European bloc. On Tuesday, January 6, European authorities convened farm ministers in an effort to lock in support and manage resistance from farmers in countries like France, another holdout. For Brazil, the prospect of a breakthrough has revived hopes of anchoring its export strategy more firmly to Europe at a moment when geopolitical uncertainty is complicating trade ties elsewhere.

Meanwhile, considerable attention at home has turned to the deepening scandal surrounding Banco Master, a small lender placed into liquidation by the Central Bank late last year over suspected irregularities. That action has become the focus of a widening controversy after reports revealed that influencers were approached with offers to post coordinated content attacking the Central Bank’s decision and defending the bank’s management. The revelations surfaced the same week that the government sought to refocus the national conversation on institutional resilience, with President Lula and members of all branches of government gathering in Brasília on Thursday, January 8 to mark the third anniversary of the January 8, 2023 insurrection by supporters of former president Jair Bolsonaro.

Highlights

• Anniversary of the Coup. January 8 marked the third anniversary of the failed coup attempt with events in defense of democracy throughout the country, especially in the capital, Brasília, where President Lula was present. To date, more than 2,000 people have been investigated for involvement in the coup attempts. In total, 898 people involved have been held accountable in some way. Of this group, 371 have been convicted, with 223 of them to serve prison sentences. Of those sentenced to prison, 71 are already in jail, while another 30 await the end of the trial, including all chances of appeal.

• Bolsonaro in Jail. This week, former President Jair Bolsonaro fell and hit his head inside his cell at the Federal Police headquarters in Brasília, where he is serving a 27-year and 3-month sentence in a closed regime for his involvement in the failed coup attempt. Although not serious, the episode prompted new requests from his family to the courts for Bolsonaro to serve his sentence under house arrest. The judge in charge, Alexandre de Moraes, however, is resisting. He has been requesting frequent medical reports to assess the former president's health condition and is expected to take into account the fact that Bolsonaro attempted to break his electronic ankle monitor while under house arrest.

• Judicial accountability. The Brazilian Supreme Court continues to hold accountable those who still engage in actions to undermine democracy. This week, Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes took action against the president of the Federal Council of Medicine for opening an investigation into the medical care Bolsonaro has been receiving in prison. The body has become known for its alignment with the far right since the pandemic, when it endorsed practices without proper scientific evidence. In the same week, Moraes ordered evangelical pastor Silas Malafaia, Bolsonaro's right-hand man, to explain the public accusations he recently made against the army command. Malafaia is one of those who complain that the military did not support the 2023 coup.

• Environmental concern. A leak from an oil drilling machine at the mouth of the Amazon River this week raised a worrying alert. At least 15,000 liters of a product used in the drilling rig leaked into the environment, reinforcing the criticism from environmentalists who strongly opposed the decision made by the Lula government to allow the start of drilling in the Amazon. The project's approval occurred on the eve of COP30 in Belém, Pará and exposed some of the contradictions to which the government is subject in the environmental area. Authorities are still investigating the true extent of the incident and its environmental impacts.

News from ABO and social organizations and movements:

Research fellows. The Washington Brazil Office (WBO) announced this week the opening of the 2026 annual cycle of its Research Fellows Program. The selection process is open both to fellows wishing to renew their participation in the program this year and to new candidates interested in collaborating with the WBO in three priority areas: Brazil-United States relations, Brazil-Europe relations, and internationalization and environmental defense of the Cerrado and Caatinga biomes. Read all the information about applying at this link.

Venezuela and the USA. This week, the WBO signed a public statement, along with several other organizations and social movements in the Americas, regarding the US attacks on Venezuela. The document treats the American action as an “armed aggression that openly violates international law and sets a dangerous precedent throughout the region.” It also refers to the “grave human rights situation in Venezuela” before the invasion. Read the full statement at this link.

Caatinga. The Escolhas Institute has opened applications for positions in the Escolhas Chair of Economics and Environment – ​​Caatinga. The program is aimed at master's and doctoral students born in the Northeast of Brazil and affiliated with economics courses or interdisciplinary programs with a research focus in economics, at educational institutions in the region. Applications are open until March 31st, and information is available at this link.

Memory. The National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) approved support of R$ 7.9 million in non-refundable resources from the BNDES Cultural Fund for the Vladimir Herzog Institute (IVH) to organize, catalog, digitize, and promote access to and dissemination of 13,840 items from three collections (Vladimir Herzog Collection, IVH Institutional Collection, and Memories of the Dictatorship Collection) that bring together a fundamental set of documents for understanding the recent history of Brazil (from 1955 onwards), especially the period of the civil-military dictatorship (1964-1985). Read more at this link.

Feature Article

The priority in 2026 is to defend democracy in Brazil

By Paulo Abrão*

Brazil will hold national elections in October of this year. The first round will be on the 4th and the second on the 25th. More than 150 million voters will go to the polls to vote for their candidates for President of the Republic, State Governor, Federal Deputy, State Deputy, and Senator.

Officially, there are still no registered candidacies, which should only happen in April. But unofficially, it is already known that the current president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is expected to run for a fourth term, while, on the opposite side, the opponent is Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, one of the sons of former president Jair Bolsonaro, who is now imprisoned and ineligible after being convicted by the Supreme Federal Court for his participation in a failed coup attempt in 2023.

The picture on the left is clearer, with Lula assuming his usual leading role, without questioning within his own political sector. The current president appears as the favorite in all polls. On the opposite side, there is a poorly disguised divergence between the Bolsonaro family and other exponents of the far right who, although they do not openly confront the former president, are trying to find their own space. Flávio's nomination was surprising, as the bets until then were on the current governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, one of the many reserve military officers who served as ministers under Bolsonaro.

Regardless of which candidates are officially presented in April, this will be a gigantic electoral marathon, marked by challenges on a continental scale, in the year that the country celebrates 41 years of redemocratization, counted from the end of the military dictatorship in 1985, and 30 years of the electronic voting system, which began to be implemented in 1996.

Both anniversaries are, at the same time, a reason for celebration and concern, because it was through unfounded questioning of the Brazilian electronic voting system that a new radical far-right movement began to attack democracy in the country, starting with the last presidential elections, held four years ago. It was through the dissemination of fake news about electronic voting machines that the Brazilian far-right began its journey of undermining democratic institutions, culminating in the failed coup attempt of January 8, 2023.

There is a risk that, in this year's election, this same political sector will return with massive disinformation campaigns about electronic voting machines. However, this time, these same sectors will appear better connected to international actors who, in their respective countries, also use this same tactic to disrupt their own electoral systems and undermine their own democracies. It is enough to remember that the unfounded questioning of the results of the 2022 Brazilian presidential elections emulated similar questions made by the American far-right in the 2020 elections, and the coup attempts of January 8, 2023, were a reproduction of the similar coup attempt in the US in 2021.

Eduardo, brother of Flávio and son of Jair Bolsonaro, is a key figure in the articulation of the Brazilian far-right with its counterparts in the US. He established himself in American territory in March, from where he began to ask the Donald Trump administration to apply sanctions against ministers of the Supreme Federal Court, through the use of the Magnitsky Act, and to impose customs surcharges on Brazilian products exported to the US. The undertaking produced the expected results at the beginning, but then Lula managed to open a direct channel of communication with Trump and, surprisingly, not only reversed most of these measures, but also began to be mentioned positively by the American president, while Eduardo was left aside.

It is still too early to say that this current picture of the situation will remain unchanged until the October elections. In fact, the prevailing climate is one of distrust, as Lula and Trump represent antagonistic models that are in conflict in various parts of the world. Furthermore, the recent American offensive against Venezuela, coupled with explicit threats against Colombia and Cuba, suggests that Brazil could also be placed in this line of targeted countries. If the rhetorical path to achieve this end is the same one used against Venezuelans and Colombians, then Brazil must be prepared to deal with a deliberate scheme of political propaganda that dishonestly seeks to associate the Lula government with cartels and factions that have been classified as narcoterrorists by the American government. Certainly, it would be a deceitful and dishonest ploy, but no more so than all the ploys previously attempted by the far right for the same purpose, including questioning the electronic voting machines.

Whatever the scenario, the Brazil Office Alliance – comprised of its branches in Europe (Europe Brazil Office), the USA (Washington Brazil Office), and Brazil (Brazil Office Association) – is already prepared to work intensively in partnership with its network of affiliated organizations and with other Brazilian civil society organizations and movements to strengthen the democratic field and the defense of human rights; the environment; indigenous peoples and local communities; and the LGBTQIA+ community.

Whether through the production of scientific knowledge, through its network of associated researchers (research fellows), or the organization of Brazilian delegations to the USA and Europe, the Brazil Office Alliance will work intensively to accurately and reliably present the Brazilian reality abroad. Whether through dialogue with governments, parliamentarians, civil society, academics, and journalists, or through the publication of reference materials such as annual reports, thematic reports, newsletters, podcasts, articles, and interviews, we will remain steadfast, building and sharing knowledge and engagement so that democracy continues to be strengthened in Brazil, despite all the threats and challenges that lie ahead.

*Paulo Abrão holds a doctorate in law, is a former National Secretary of Justice (2011-14), former Executive Secretary of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (2016-20), and Executive Director of the WBO (Washington Brazil Office).

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.