Editorial

Minor Candidates and Strategic Coalitions

The basic contours of the presidential race remain unchanged, with former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva beating the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro by double digits. There has been intriguing movement in one of the candidacies still vying to break through, however. Senator Simone Tebet, seeking the presidency for the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), seems likely to choose as her running mate Senator Mara Gabrilli of the Party of Brazilian Social Democracy (PSDB). This would be the first all-woman ticket in Brazilian history, a significant development in a political culture still largely dominated by men. Yet Tebet is a distant fourth behind former Ceará governor Ciro Gomes and faces few viable paths to the top. She has already said she will support whoever is up against Bolsonaro in a potential run-off, signaling, in other words, her intent to back Lula. In that regard, she would be joining several prominent leaders of her own party who would like to withdraw her candidacy and align with Lula right away.

As the campaign formally gets underway, attention has turned to the debates. Bolsonaro has all but said he will not meet the other candidates. Lula has also placed strict stipulations on his participation. Meanwhile, Ciro, known for his verbosity and combative rhetorical style, has essentially bet the viability of his candidacy on sharing a stage with the frontrunners. Ciro has said repeatedly, for example, that one he has a chance to confront Lula and Bolsonaro directly the dynamic of the race will be transformed. If Lula and Bolsonaro refuse to show up, however, it is very hard for the television and radio networks to justify holding debates at all, particularly since the other contenders currently poll so weakly. CNN Brasil, for example, which was set to host the first debate on August 6, cancelled the event after it could not get the two candidates leading the polls to confirm they would attend. Ciro excoriated the frontrunners for what he says is their unwillingness to be transparent with voters. Indeed, this line of attack—that he is the only one with a plan to talk about while his opponents refuse to debate—has become a central component of Ciro’s stagnant campaign. It remains to be seen whether this will gain traction, although it seems unlikely that criticizing the bipolarity that has defined the race thus far will change anything dramatically at this point. For better or for worse, the parameters of the race seem set to most voters.

Further evidence that the race is all but certain to come down to Lula or Bolsonaro is the fact that Luciano Bivar withdrew his nomination for president as the head of União Brasil, a party born of the fusion between Democratas and the Social Liberal Party, which launched Bolsonaro in 2018. Bivar’s role in the race was significant not because he had garnered much support—he polled in the low single digits, if at all—but because his party will have at its disposal a wealth of television time given its success in the last presidential election when it benefited from the Bolsonaro wave. Despite the former president’s entreaties, there is no way the party will support Lula in the first round. The second round, however, is a different story, with the challenger likely to expand his broad coalition against Bolsonaro. It is difficult to imagine any other figure in Brazilian politics stitching together the kind of multifaceted alliance Lula is, one that invites bitter former enemies into an electoral undertaking centered firmly around the former president. This campaign is intensely personalistic, revolving around the particularities of Lula and Bolsonaro and their individual personalities. This is likely to become ever more apparent as the campaign kicks into high gear.

Highlights

• SUCCESS IN WASHINGTON D.C.: During the week of July 25 to July 29, a delegation of 19 civil society groups from Brazil met with U.S. lawmakers at an event organized by the Washington Brazil Office. After meeting with U.S. politicians, State Department officials, ambassadors from the Organization of American States (OAS), and members of the Foreign Relations Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives, the Brazilian delegations released a joint statement reporting that the trip to Washington D.C. “achieved its objective” of garnering international support for the protection of Brazil’s democracy."American interlocutors were especially sensitive to the issue given the recent memory of the attacks on democracy perpetrated by the ex-President Donald Trump when he questioned the U.S. electoral system and acted to prevent the inauguration of the winner and current president Joe Biden," noted a participant. Among the support received, the delegation participants highlighted that from Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders and Democratic Representative Jamie Raskin.

• DATAFOLHA POLL: A poll released by the Datafolha Institute on July 28 shows former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party with 47% of the votes in the first round elections. Trailing behind is the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party with 29% of the votes, Ciro Gomes of the Democratic Labor Party with 8%, and Simone Tebet of the Brazilian Democratic Movement with 2%. In a possible second round vote, Lula is shown with 55% and Bolsonaro with 35%.

• DROPPING OUT OF THE RACE: Luciano Bivar, the pre-candidate for the Presidency representing the Brazil Union, withdrew from the elections on July 29. He now plans on running for re-election as a congressional representative for the northeastern state of Pernambuco. At a national convention in Recife on Sunday, July 31, Bivar announced that Soraya Thronicke, Senator of Mato Grosso do Sul, will be the party's nominee in the presidential race. Additionally, André Janones of Avante also left the presidential race this Thursday, August 4, to support former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva who he claims agreed to adopt some of his government plans. Now the tenth candidate of the third way to withdraw from the elections, Janones has his eyes set on running for re-election to represent Minas Gerais in the Chamber of Deputies.

• MORE CAMPAIGN LAUNCHES: Throughout this week, many candidates for the Presidency were officially launched, including Sofia Manzano of the Brazilian Communist Party, Vera Lúcia of the United Socialist Workers' Party, Felipe d’Avila of the New Party, and Pablo Marçal of the Republican Party of the Social Order. In addition, on August 1, the Brazilian Labor Party approved the candidacy of former federal deputy Roberto Jefferson who has been under house arrest since January 2022 for involvement in a criminal organization that acted through social media to attack democracy.

• TEBET'S VICE: The Brazilian Social Democracy Party nominated São Paulo Senator Mara Gabrilli to join pre-candidate Simone Tebet as her vice-presidential candidate. After affirming that her running mate would indeed be a woman at the Federation of Industries of São Paulo (Fiesp) on August 1, the Senator representing Mato Grosso do Sul formally announced the collaboration with Gabrilli on August 2, at the headquarters of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party’s State Directory in São Paulo. "That's why I want to announce to you, ladies and gentlemen, that for the first time in the history of the Republic of Brazil, we will have a pure ticket for the candidate for the Presidency of the Republic. My vice will be a woman," said Tebet. The United Socialist Workers' Party also announced on July 30, an exclusively female ticket for the presidency, with pre-candidate Vera Lúcia and her indigenous running mate Kunã Yporã.

• CONTROVERSY OVER MARÇAL’S CAMPAIGN: The Republican Party of the Social Order decided to withdraw their nomination of coach Pablo Marçal, who is representing their own party, to support the Lula-Alckmin ticket in the October elections. The announcement was made this Wednesday, August 3, during a meeting with the Workers’ Party and the Brazilian Socialist Party. Pablo Marçal’s candidacy was then put in the hands of the Superior Court of Justice (STJ), which, on Wednesday night, returned the command of the Republican Party of the Social Order to Marcus Holanda – a favorable decision for the faction of the party that supports Marçal. Prior to the decision made by the STJ, Pablo Marçal made clear that he would not give up the presidential race and would appeal to the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) to continue his campaign if needed.

• HOW POPULAR IS BOLSONARO? A poll carried out by the Genial/Quaest institute this month revealed an improvement in the public’s image of the Bolsonaro administration. According to their statistics, Bolsonaro’s government has a 27% approval rate and a 43% disapproval rate. This month’s numbers show the lowest level of rejection of the government since the survey began in July of 2021.

Feature Article

Statement by the Delegation of Representatives of Brazilian Civil Society Organizations on a Visit to Washington on July 2022

“We, from the delegation representing 19 Brazilian civil society organizations, who were in Washington between July 24 and 29, 2022 to discuss the attacks on democracy in Brazil, consider that the trip achieved the objective of informing some of the most prominent and influential actors in American politics about the delicate moment that Brazilian democracy is facing.

In over 20 meetings held over these five days, we were received with deference and listened to with genuine attention from all the relevant actors we sought to meet. We could see that today in the United States – as we are certain is the case in other parts of the world as well – special attention is being paid to the political moment that Brazil is going through.

We were able to understand that the fate of a country of continental dimensions, with a population of more than 212 million inhabitants, an environmental and cultural heritage of global importance, and with a prominent place in the world economy, is a matter that has implications that go beyond our borders. The Brazilian elections are undoubtedly, above all, a Brazilian matter, and this message was reinforced by the delegation and corroborated by the American interlocutors themselves in Washington. However, the strength of Brazilian democracy and the respect for human rights, individual freedoms, the rule of law, the environment, indigenous people, and the black population are matters that concern all of ​​humanity and, as such, attract legitimate attention and concern in a world of interconnected and interdependent relationships. Informing key players in the United States about the Brazilian reality was, therefore, one of the delegation’s priorities.

From the Capitol to the Department of State, from the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights to Washington television studios and the headquarters of local social and union organizations, the delegation always found a warm welcome and strong interest in the current situation in Brazil. In all these meetings, the delegation repeated two messages: inform yourself about the ongoing attacks against the Brazilian electoral system and quickly recognize the election result in October, whoever the winner is, so as to reinforce the voice of the international community and, as a result, make it impossible to implement the coup threats that have been publicly made over the last few years.

At all times, we find an attentive and concerned listeners. Several times, we immediately received public support of Brazilian democracy, as in the cases of the statements of Senator Bernie Sanders and Congressman Jamie Raskin, whose words had significant repercussions in Brazil.

We returned to Brazil with the certainty that our efforts helped to better inform the international community, in this specific case the United States, whose government, through several of its bodies, has already publicly positioned itself in defense of democracy in Brazil. We believe that this diverse and united Brazilian delegation played a fundamental role in the challenge of preserving, protecting and improving Brazilian democracy.”

Organizations that make up the delegation, in alphabetical order:

ABGLT (Associação Brasileira de Lésbicas, Gays, Bissexuais, Travestis, Transexuais e Intersexos/Brazilian Association of Lesbians, Gays, Bisexuals, Tranvestites, Transexuals, and Intersex people)

Site: https://www.abglt.org/

Twitter: @ABGLT

APIB (Articulação dos Povos Indígenas do Brasil/Articulation of Indigenous Peoples)

Site: https://ifnotusthenwho.me/pt-br/

Twitter: @ApibOficial

Artigo 19 (Article 19)

Site: https://artigo19.org/

Twitter: @artigo19

Comissão Arns (Arns Commission)

Site: https://comissaoarns.org/pt-br/

Twitter: @comissaoarns

CONAQ (Coordenação Nacional de Articulação das Comunidades Negras Rurais Quilombolas/National Coordination of the Articulation of Rural Black Quilombo Communities)

Site: http://conaq.org.br/

Twitter: @conaquilombos

Conectas Direitos Humanos (Human Rights Connections)

Site: https://conectas.org/

Twitter: @conectas 

Geledés – Instituto da Mulher Negra (Geledés – Institute of the Black Woman)

Site: https://www.geledes.org.br/

Twitter: @geledes

Greenpeace Brasil

Site: https://www.greenpeace.org/brasil/

Twitter: @GreenpeaceBR

Grupo Prerrogativas (Prerogatives Group)

Site: https://www.prerro.com.br/

Twitter: @GrupoPrerro 

Instituto Clima e Sociedade (Climate and Society Institute)

Site: https://climaesociedade.org/

Twitter: @climaesociedade

Instituto Marielle Franco (Marielle Franco Institute)

Site: https://www.institutomariellefranco.org/

Twitter: @inst_marielle 

Instituto de Referência Negra Peregum 

Site: https://peregum.org.br/

Twitter: @inst_peregum

Instituto Vladimir Herzog (Vladimir Herzog Institute)

Site: https://vladimirherzog.org/

Twitter: @vladimirherzog

Pacto pela Democracia (Democratic Pact)

Site: https://www.pactopelademocracia.org.br/

Twitter: @PactoDemocracia

Transparência Internacional Brasil (International Transparency Brazil)

Site: https://transparenciainternacional.org.br/

Twitter: @TI_InterBr

Uneafro (Afro Unity)

Site: https://uneafrobrasil.org/

Twitter: @UNEafroBrasil

Voz das Comunidades (Voices of the Communities)

Site: https://www.vozdascomunidades.com.br/

Twitter: @vozdacomunidade

342 Artes/342 Amazonia

Twitter: @342Artes @342Amazonia

NAVE

Twitter: @NAVEBrasileiro

Washington Brazil Office

Site: https://www.braziloffice.org/pt/home/

Twitter: @Brazil_Office

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Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.