Oct 4th 2024 | Nº. 137

Editorial

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was in Mexico this week to meet with outgoing president Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known universally as AMLO, and attend the inauguration of Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s first woman and first Jewish head of state. Sheinbaum ran as AMLO’s heir, but she is an impressive figure in her own right with whom Lula evidently wants to work. More than any specific diplomatic development, however, the coverage of Lula’s visit to Mexico was dominated by technical difficulties with the presidential aircraft. Upon leaving Mexico City, the plane carrying Lula and the rest of the Brazilian delegation was forced to spend several hours circling the Mexican capital before it could land. Lula eventually returned to Brasília without incident, but it underscored his longstanding frustration with the official aircraft.

Lula’s visit to Mexico forced him to cancel a campaign appearance with his ally in the high-stakes São Paulo mayoral. Congressman Guilherme Boulos, a close Lula ally in the Party of Socialism and Liberty (PSOL), is at or near the top of an extremely contested race to govern Brazil’s largest city. Lula is set to campaign with Boulos on Saturday before Brazilians across the country go to the polls on Sunday, but his participation in the race has been less pronounced than many close to Boulos had hoped. Boulos is the main leftwing candidate facing two candidates vying for the voting base of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Although Lula has been less involved in supporting Boulos than many initially expected, the race will inevitably be seen as a bellwether for his own political standing as he enters the third year of his administration. The race will also likely be construed as a test of Bolsonaro’s ability to continue shaping political outcomes at the highest level.   

While Brazilians prepare to cast their ballots in municipal elections, the global geopolitical situation remains deeply unsettled. At least two Brazilian nationals were reportedly killed in Lebanon this week as a result of Israeli bombings, adding a layer of complexity to Brazil's approach to this pressing international issue. Lula has been among the world leaders most critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Brazil has a large population of Lebanese descent. On Monday, September 30, the Brazilian embassy in Beirut began providing emergency assistance to the Brazilian community in Lebanon. The goal is to first assess the number of residents who want to leave the country so that the government can prepare an operation to remove Brazilians from the country in the days ahead.

Highlights

• Deforestation. The European Commission proposed to postpone by at least one year the implementation of an anti-deforestation law that could affect up to 30% of Brazil's current exports to Europe. The original proposal was to bar the import of products from areas that had been deforested after 2020. The new rule would come into effect on December 30 of this year. The sectors most affected would be soy, coffee, timber, palm oil, beef and rubber. The suspension proposal still needs to be voted on by the European Parliament and the Council.

• Sex scandal. Anielle Franco, the Minister of Racial Equality,  said in a statement to the Federal Police that she had been sexually harassed by the now former Minister of Racial Equality Silvio Almeida, since the end of 2022. According to her, the situations even involved physical contact. Almeida was dismissed from his position by President Lula after the Me Too organization accused him of sexual harassment. At first, the complaint was full of speculation, as it did not make precise reference to names, places and dates. Even Franco's involvement was shrouded in doubt because she herself was evasive when asked about it. The testimony of more than an hour given to the Federal Police now gives even more substance to the complaint.

• Twitter/X. Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered the unblocking of Twitter/X's bank accounts in Brazil. The decision was made after the company guaranteed that it would pay in full the fines that already total the equivalent of US$5.2 million. Initially, the judge threatened to seize funds from Starlink, another company owned by Elon Musk, to cover Twitter/X's debts to the courts. Now, however, Musk's lawyers in Brazil say they will transfer funds from Twitter/X abroad to cover the amount owed. Musk's social network went offline in Brazil at the end of August for failing to appoint a sales representative in the country. Musk claims that the decision, linked to a corporate formality, conceals an impetus for censorship attributed to the justice, who is leading several legal proceedings against Bolsonaro activists whose posts advocate political violence.

   

• Good rating. Brazil's credit rating maintained its “positive” outlook and was raised from Ba2 to Ba1 by the rating agency Moody's. This means that the country is one step away from being considered insufficiently safe for international investment, although it still is considered risky. The last time Brazil entered this range was from 2008 to 2015, a period that corresponds to the governments of Presidents Lula and Dilma Rousseff, both from the Workers' Party. The improvement in the outlook was driven by economic growth and the fiscal reforms that have been implemented.

News from the WBO, Organizations and Social Movements

Brazil Unfiltered. In this month's episode of the WBO's Brazil Unfiltered podcast, host James N. Green interviews Tainah Santos Pereira, who holds a master's degree in political science and a doctorate in international police economics. She is also the coordinator of the Brazilian civil society organization Mulheres Negras Decidem (Black Women Decide). The episode discusses the challenges faced by progressive candidates in the municipal elections on Sunday, October 6, throughout Brazil. Click on the link to watch and listen.

United Nations. On Thursday, October 3, the WBO held a virtual meeting open to the participation of all of its 72 affiliates to discuss the main requests for inputs issued by United Nations agencies for the months of October and November. The areas covered were mental health and human rights, reparatory justice for Africans and people of African descent, the impact of arms transfers on human rights, the protection of human rights defenders working in remote and rural areas, Indigenous peoples, children's rights, and the fight against discrimination, violence, and harmful practices against intersex people.

Racism and sexism. On Wednesday, October 2, Geledés – Instituto da Mulher Negra held a side event at the 57th Session of the UN Human Rights Council at the Royal Hotel in Geneva, Switzerland, to discuss issues of race, sexism, and global governance. The event was attended by June Soomer, president of the UN Permanent Forum for People of African Descent; Barbara Reynolds, president of the UN Working Group of Experts on People of African Descent; and Sara Hamood, chief of the Anti-Racial Discrimination Section of the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR). Read more at the link.

Police violence. In addition to the event organized by Geledés, this week, in parallel with the 57th Session of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, there was also an event that discussed the impact of police violence on the Afro-Brazilian population. The panel included Ana Paula Oliveira from Mães de Manguinhos; Rute Fiuza from Mães de Maio; Maria José Menezes from Coalizão Negra por Direitos; and Nayara Khaly Silva Sanfo from Coalizão Unarc.

Global South. On October 15, the Instituto Novos Paradigmas will hold the third session of the Preparatory Workshop for Cycle 2: Democracy and the Global South, which is part of the preparations for the G20 Social plenary in Rio de Janeiro. At the meeting, texts will be presented that will serve as the basis for the document that will contain notes and suggestions in defense of democracy and fundamental rights, which will be delivered to the G20 authorities on November 15.

Feature Article

2024 Municipal Elections: Local and National Impacts in a Scenario of Polarization and Institutional Crises

By Pedro Kelson*

Elections in Brazil take place every two years, alternating between municipal and general elections. In the municipal elections, held every four years, mayors and city councilors are elected with a focus on local city administration. In all, 156 million voters will go to the polls in the country's 5,568 municipalities. The results of these elections have a direct impact on the general elections and on the reconfiguration of the national political scenario. They are often seen as a barometer of the popularity of parties and national leaders. Elected mayors and city councilors play important roles in coordinating candidacies for the general elections, influencing party alliances and strategies. In addition, control of city halls in large cities can strengthen or weaken political projects with national ambitions, also serving as a breeding ground for new leaders.

The 2024 election is taking place at a moment of intense political polarization, represented mainly by former President Jair Bolsonaro and current President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Another important center of power is the “Centrão,” (Big Center), a traditional and pragmatic bloc in Brazilian politics with a broad presence in all levels of government with strong control of the federal budget. This group, with a self-serving and conservative profile, tends to ally itself with the political forces that have the greatest chance of winning in each municipality. In small and medium-sized municipalities, these alliances of convenience are even more common, and the electoral debate tends to focus more on local issues. In the large capitals, the polarization between Bolsonaro supporters and Lula supporters is more pronounced, mirroring the national dispute. 

The São Paulo election is seen as a proxy for the 2026 elections, due to the national implications of the dispute. President Lula actively supports the candidacy of Guilherme Boulos (Party Socialism and Freedom, PSOL), while the current mayor, Ricardo Nunes (Brazilian Democratic Movement, MDB), and businessman Pablo Marçal (Brazilian Labor Renewal Party, PRTB) are competing for the explicit support of Bolsonaro and his supporters. The three candidates are technically tied in the polls.

Marçal stands out as the newcomer to the election, running for the small PRTB. Despite his limited party structure, he has an engaged network of young volunteers and a strong presence on social media, surpassing all other politicians in the country except Lula and Bolsonaro. Inspired by figures from the international far right, Marçal adopts the conservative agenda of Bolsonaro, the aggressiveness of Argentine President Javier Milei, the erratic rhetoric of Donald Trump, the style of Salvadoran President Najib Bukele and the media strategies of Andrew Tate. His candidacy, however, is embroiled in a series of lawsuits for electoral crimes, abuse of economic power and misuse of the media, creating a challenge for the Judiciary. If his candidacy is contested or his mandate is revoked, this could reinforce his anti-system rhetoric, elevating him to the national stage and further weakening trust in electoral institutions.

Marçal's ability to use social media reinforces the importance of the debate on regulating this type of tool. With the digitalization of campaigns and unprecedented access to artificial intelligence and synthetic content production tools, public debate has become even more vulnerable to mass disinformation. Over the past two years, the Brazilian Congress has tried, unsuccessfully, to pass a law to regulate big tech. In the absence of specific legislation, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) assumed this responsibility and, after consultations and public hearings, drafted a set of resolutions that regulate the use of artificial intelligence, prohibit deepfakes, create a repository of court decisions on content removal, and define transparency rules on paid boosting of publications, in addition to increasing the responsibility of platforms for the circulation of information that is known to be false. Although these measures have proven effective so far, they are generating new tensions between politicians, civil society, and the electoral justice system.

Another important element to consider in the 2024 electoral context is the prospect of improving political representation. The Congress is approving, for the fifth time, an amnesty package for parties that did not meet the quotas to fund women and Black candidates. Thus, it is likely that in 2024, electoral and party resources, which total R$4.9 billion, will continue not to be allocated to candidates from politically minority groups, perpetuating the history of minimal diversity in national politics. In addition, the issue of climate change and urban adaptations to it remain off the electoral agenda in most municipalities, despite the serious disasters that occurred last year, such as the floods that devastated dozens of cities in Rio Grande do Sul, the landslides that buried entire communities on the coast of São Paulo, and the fires that destroyed important areas of the Cerrado, Pantanal, and Amazon.

These are some of the general elements that are relevant to consider when understanding the political moment that Brazil is going through in the context of the municipal elections. This situation poses enormous challenges to organized civil society and progressive forces as a whole, as it indicates the consolidation of a conservative, anti-democratic and anti-environmental project in the country that has a broad base and popular support.

*Pedro Kelson is coordinator of the WBO Democracy Program

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.