Editorial

Presidential Candidates on Prime Time

On Monday, August 22, President Jair Bolsonaro became the first of the major candidates to participate in the crucial series of interviews on Jornal Nacional, the country’s leading nightly news broadcast. Despite changing viewing habits in Brazil, like everywhere else, the show still attracts a wide viewership, offering presidential contenders a major national platform as the campaign officially gets underway. The 40-minute exchange between Bolsonaro and the interviewers was tense, bordering on hostile at times. The anchors grilled Bolsonaro on his disastrous handling of the pandemic and Amazonian deforestation as well as his ongoing rhetorical attacks on Brazilian institutions. Already Bolsonaro is using the heated exchange in campaign events to argue that the press is openly against him, calling the interview an “inquisition.” Recapturing some of the outsider energy that fueled Bolsonaro’s rise in 2018—despite the fact that he had served in Congress for decades—will be absolutely essentially if he is to turn the tide against former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT), who has led in every poll taken this year.

On Tuesday, August 23, it was the turn of former Ceará governor Ciro Gomes, who has consistently argued that he is the only remaining candidate with any chance against Lula and Bolsonaro. Indeed, during the interview, he made a point of citing some of the other would-be candidates of the so-called “third way” that have risen and fallen by the wayside. Ciro, however, has yet to demonstrate he is a legitimate threat to either of the frontrunners. He has recognized the steep task ahead of him, but he took advantage of the opportunity on Jornal Nacional to lay out his thorough plans and attempt to convey warmth and level-headedness, important signals for a candidate with a famously combustible temper. Ciro has a sophisticated marketing team at his disposal led by João Santana, the man behind successful PT campaigns in the past. Nevertheless, as noted, Ciro has not shown that he can be truly competitive. Ciro’s biggest challenge remains credibly making the case that he can win, but it is unlikely that voters will flock to his candidacy if his poll numbers don’t budge soon. This is the existential quandary Ciro faces.

On Thursday evening, Lula faced a tough interview on Jornal Nacional. He started off somewhat shaky responding to questions about he would avert future corruption scandals. Ultimately, he urged voters to consider what the PT had done in office, fortifying the public institutions that brought massive graft to light. As the interview progressed, Lula became increasingly animated, particularly when discussing Bolsonaro’s relationship to Congress. He attacked the incumbent for ceding the powers of the presidency to unscrupulous legislative allies and diminishing the office of the presidency. This seemed to energize Lula, who soon displayed the strong rhetorical skills that have made him an enduringly popular figure in Brazilian politics. The interviewers raised thorny questions about how Lula would work with the Landless Workers’ Movement (MST), which conservatives see as a criminal organization and whether he believed countries like Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua still deserved deference in the name of respecting state sovereignty. He effectively avoided making news in these areas, which means he did not commit any gaffes. Indeed, by vigorously defending Brazilian democracy, recalling the highlights of PT administrations and his alliance with a former rival in Geraldo Alckmin while promising to focus single-mindedly on doing better in power than last time, it would not be surprising if Lula gained support after his appearance on the country’s leading news show.

Facing pressure from Lula’s endurance in the polls and growing domestic and international calls in defense of Brazilian democracy, Bolsonaro and his allies affirmed this week that they will respect the outcome of the election. The president, as usual, continues to add a caveat to that statement, insisting that the election must be fair. Given his history, it is not surprising that Bolsonaro’s critics take this disclaimer to mean that he reserves the right to act against the peaceful transfer of power should Lula win. This situation has continued to raise alarm in the United States, particularly in the wake of the meeting between U.S. elected representatives and Brazilian activists and civil society representatives sponsored by Washington Brazil Office. Senator Bernie Sanders, for example, has called on the United States to refuse to recognize any government in Brazil that did not come to power through a free and fair election. The point of announcing this proposal, of course, is to act as yet another deterrent against Bolsonaro’s most dangerous instincts. The prospect of the election not happening, or its results ignored, is remote. As the campaign officially heats up, Lula’s overwhelming lead may temper the conspiratorial machinations that Bolsonaro has gestured toward in the past.

Highlights

• DATAFOLHA POLL. A poll carried out by the DataFolha Institute on Thursday, August 18, shows ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party with 47% support in the upcoming October elections. Trailing behind is the incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, with 32% of intended votes. Claiming to represent the “third way,” Ciro Gomes of the Democratic Labor Party has 7%, Simone Tebet of the Brazilian Democratic Movement has 2%, and Vera Lúcia of the United Socialist Workers' Party has 1%.

• SEDITIOUS CONSPIRACY. Following the orders of Brazil’s new chief electoral judge Alexandre de Moraes, the Federal Police (PF) carried out search and seizure operations on Tuesday, August 23 against eight business owners who, in a Whatsapp group chat, defended a coup d'état led by President Bolsonaro in the event that Lula wins the presidential election. The businessmen involved in the scandal talked about the possibility of bearing arms and, in a clear violation of electoral legislation, paying bonuses to employees who voted for Jair Bolsonaro. Heightening tensions between the judiciary and the government, Moraes’s operation hopes to uncover whether the businessmen are involved in a larger illegal conspiracy.

• BOLSONARO ON JORNAL NACIONAL. On Monday, August 22, President Jair Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party participated in a 40-minute interview with Jornal Nacional, one of the most significant news programs in the country. The president was asked to commit to accepting the result of the elections, which he agreed to under the condition that “the elections are clean.” Other topics discussed included Bolsonaro’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, his economic policies, and his alliance with the Centrão. Bolsonaro was the first candidate to participate in the JN series of interviews.

• MARÇAL’S CANDIDACY. Pre-candidate for the presidency representing the Republican Party of the Social Order, Pablo Marçal, pleaded with the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) to prohibit his party from supporting other campaigns until a final decision is made on his candidacy. Marçal’s meeting with the court follows his party’s attempt to withdraw his nomination in favor of a Lula-Alckmin ticket in the October elections. In practice, Pablo Marçal will remain a candidate until the Superior Electoral Court says otherwise.

• CAMPAIGNING ON THE JOB? The Workers’ Party filed a complaint on Sunday, August 21, with the Federal Court of Accounts (TCU) against the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro for allegedly campaigning on the job. According to the Workers’ Party’s legal team, Bolsonaro promoted his campaign on five different instances during the working hours of the public offices of the Federal Executive branch. According to the party, this signifies "the use of the public machine to promote his [Bolsonaro’s] electoral campaign," which, the Workers’ Party argues, is "prohibited by legislation." The Democratic Labor Party, represented by Ciro Gomes in the elections, also alleged in front of the Superior Electoral Court this Monday, August 22, that President Jair Bolsonaro and his vice-presidential candidate Walter Braga Netto "used official broadcasts to ask for votes, explicitly, for himself and for 17 political allies.”

• LULA AND THE AMAZON. Speaking to foreign journalists this week in São Paulo, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vowed to launch a major crackdown on Amazon crime if returned to power in the October elections following the “barbaric” murders of the Indigenous expert Bruno Pereira and the British journalist Dom Phillips. When asked what concrete steps he would take to address the surge in Amazon devastation and attacks on Indigenous communities, Lula promised to create a ministry for native peoples and rebuild the environmental agency, Ibama, which many claim Jair Bolsonaro has deliberately dismantled since taking office. “We will put a complete end to any kind of illegal mining. This can’t be simply through a law – it must be almost a profession of faith,” Lula declared.

Feature Article

Rising Violence and the Risk of Democratic Rupture: the 2022 Presidential Elections in Brazil

By Vanessa Maria de Castro

In Bolsonaro’s Brazil, words, debates, and ideas are not the most salient political weapons. Instead, there is a prevailing appeal to brute force and violence, such that political differences acquire a new level of dispute that often breaks with the institutional order.

This has been the tone of the Bolsonaro administration, and this institutional climate has also reverberated within the Armed Forces. Brazil has a civilian government, but it is effectively coopted by the military.

The struggle for those who want to protect Brazilian democracy is to preserve it in the face of the serious risks it faces this presidential election year, especially if Bolsonaro is reelected. The incumbent has been unable to campaign effectively for reelection. All electoral polls so far have shown that former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, from the Workers' Party, will win the elections in any scenario, and may even be elected in the first round of voting, held on October 2nd. Still, the challenges are many, and the struggle to guarantee a democratic election is constant.

The radicalization of hate speech that was the hallmark of Bolsonaro's 2018 campaign emerges again, placing the nation on alert for what could happen between August and December 2022. Afte all, even if Lula is elected, he would not be sworn in until January 1, 2023.

The radicalization of hate speech that was the hallmark of Bolsonaro's 2018 campaign emerges again, placing the nation on alert for what could happen between August and December 2022.

After all, even if Lula is elected, he would not be sworn in until January 1, 2023. If candidate Bolsonaro did so much to deconstruct the minimal civilizing ties of electoral grammar in a democracy during the 2018 campaign, we can expect an even more aggravated and violent scenario on the part of him and his supporters this year. The memory of September 1, 2018 is still strong, when, in a campaign speech in the state of Acre, in the Northern Region of Brazil, Bolsonaro held a camera tripod as if it were a machine gun, and while simulating shooting he said: "Let's go shoot the Petralhada here in Acre.” The “Petralhada” he was referring to were Workers' Party (PT) voters, at the time aligned behind their presidential candidate, Fernando Haddad.

This fact is emblematic for understanding what has been happening in Brazil in 2022, a process that culminated in the July 10 murder of Marcelo Aloizio Arruda, a municipal guard and treasurer of the Workers' Party in Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná, by a Bolsonaro supporter.

 Arruda was celebrating his 50th birthday, and the theme of the party was associated with Lula's presidential campaign. A supporter of Bolsonaro, irritated by the theme of the celebration,  stormed the party shooting at Arruda, shouting “here, it’s Bolsonaro”.

It seems that Bolsonaro's wishes have found an echo in some of his followers. The gravity of this violent attack unfolded in the president's comments days later as he reduced what happened to a casual fight.

Bolsonaro's political agenda is anchored in hate speech, fake news, and the construction of untruths.

Data on lethality show that Brazil is bleeding. Indigenous people are experiencing a war in defense of their territories. Under Bolsonaro, there has been a 61% increase in the number of murders of indigenous people between 2019 and 2020, as shown by the Report on Violence Against Indigenous Peoples in Brazil CIMI - 2020. In a survey I conducted in 2018 with Bolsonaro voters, I presented the thesis that “Bolsonaro’s rhetoric legitimates the right to kill”, with an analogy to the idea of ​​an enemy. Since then, data has shown that this is happening.

In Brazil, there is a climate that fosters gun ownership mediated by Bolsonaro's arms policy, and the data are alarming. The 2022 Public Security Yearbook shows that there was a 473% increase in the number of firearms licenses between 2018 and June 2022. Another datapoint that reflects the increasingly armed civilian population in Brazil is the 575% increase in individuals with firearms registered between 2018 and June 2022.

The politically motivated assassination of Marcelo Aloisio Arruda may be just the beginning of the escalation of violence that we will witness during these months of electoral campaign. Every day there are threats to progressive candidacies made by Bolsonaro supporters in different parts of the country. Furthermore, the Bolsonarista discourse that delegitimizes the electoral process through electronic voting machines, which culminated in a meeting with several ambassadors convened by Bolsonaro to decry electronic voting machines and the Federal Supreme Court (STF).

On October 2, 2022, 154,454,011 million voters will vote to decide which Brazil we will have beginning in 2023.

With a political base embedded in the increasingly armed civilian population and the structural alignment of the Armed Forces with President Bolsonaro, Brazil could experience disruptive moments in the democratic order. Brazilian democracy is riven by fissures due to a government that seeks daily to unravel the country’s democratic fabric, and on January 1, 2023 we will know how our democracy will behave, in the hope that better days will come.

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Vanessa Maria de Castro is a professor at the Graduate Program in Human Rights at the University of Brasilia

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Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.