Editorial

A Debate to Show Us Why the Campaign Should End this Sunday

Last night’s debate on Globo, Brazil’s largest and most widely watched television network, was the last chance for candidates to shape the presidential race in their favor. Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has led in the polls throughout the campaign. His objective going into the debate was clear: remain above the fray and respond forcefully if any of his opponents attacked. To that end, the sheer number of candidates on the stage—seven, including a farcical turn from a self-styled priest whose only purpose seemed to be to boost the far-right incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro—benefited the former president, drawing attention to other less competitive adversaries before things got too heated. Also working in Lula’s favor was the late hour of the debate, which began at 10:30pm and lasted over three hours. Polls indicate Lula is on the brink of winning an outright victory this Sunday. The more static the race remains, the better.

President Bolsonaro clearly sought to shake Lula up, coming off even more aggressive than usual. He called the former president names and denied any and all wrongdoing or shortcomings while in office. Former Ceará governor Ciro Gomes, who has never broken out of third place, sought to present himself as a capable, even-keeled alternative to the center-left and far-right candidates leading the polls. The problem for Ciro, of course, is that he is not an unknown quantity. This is his fourth race; voters know who he is. It is unlikely that a candidacy like his, which has been trending downward in the polls, will find many new converts after last night. Senator Simone Tebet, who made a national name for herself by participating actively in the congressional investigation into Bolsonaro’s disastrous handling of COVID-19, has likely set herself up to be a prominent voice in the next few years. Indeed, she’ll have a big choice to make under a potential new Lula administration: either join the government—she could easily end up in the cabinet, for example, especially if there is a run-off and negotiations take place to secure her support—or stake out a prime spot in the opposition with an eye toward 2026. Senator Soraya Thronicke found herself in a tricky situation at times when the president pointed out that she had been a vocal supporter of his in 2018 before turning into a harsh critic now. 

It may well be that if the debate had been held earlier, it would have a greater effect on the outcome of the vote this weekend. In practical terms, the campaign’s will use footage from the debate for last-minute ads and social media content to inspire their bases. There are not many undecided voters left. One thing to watch, however, is the soft support of second- and third-tier candidates. If Ciro Gomes voters continue to move away from him in the hope of ending the election in the first round, Lula would likely be the biggest beneficiary. If, however, Bolsonaro managed to do just enough at the debate to hold onto his hardcore of support, the race could well head into a head-to-head matchup between him and Lula that would likely be the most acrimonious in recent Brazilian history. Indeed, there is a reason so many are calling for everyone committed to democracy to support Lula this Sunday, even if they favor someone else. Indeed, there are real concerns that the temperature of Brazilian politics cannot rise much higher without exploding. The sooner Bolsonaro is defeated, from this perspective, the better. Ciro Gomes, Simone Tebet, and the others insist they will stay in the race until the end, imploring their followers to stick with them. If voters are ready to be done with this whole ordeal, however, the runners-up may have less say over the outcome of the race than they’d like. Hopefully, the campaign will come to a peaceful conclusion this Sunday. The alternative would be a harrowing, high-stakes battle in a nation already on the brink. 

Highlights

• THE SECOND DEBATE. Hosted by CNN in partnership with SBT, the second presidential debate took place on Saturday, September 24. In total, six candidates were in attendance, including Jair Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, Ciro Gomes of the Democratic Labor Party, Simone Tebet of the Brazilian Democratic Movement, Soraya Thronicke of Brazil Union, Felipe D'Ávila of the New Party, and Padre Kelmon of the Brazilian Labor Party. While former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party had already announced that he would not attend the debate on account of previously scheduled campaign rallies in São Paulo, every candidate in attendance was quick in expressing their disapproval of Lula’s absence. "It amazes me that he who preaches  ‘tactical voting’ [voto útil] runs away from a debate rather than telling Brazil what his proposals are," said Senator Simone Tebet. In addition to criticizing Lula, the candidates wasted no time before attacking one another, specifically on issues related to corruption, the economy, and the controversial notion of “tactical voting.”

• BIDEN ADMINISTRATION SUPPORT OF DEMOCRACY IN BRAZIL. Reiterating its complete confidence in the Brazilian electoral process, the United States formally announced on Saturday, September 24, that it will recognize the result of the Presidential elections in Brazil regardless of candidate or political party. This statement came only days after the Chargé D’Affaires for the U.S. Embassy in Brazil, Douglas Koneff, met with former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva who leads in all polls. “Our confidence in the Brazilian elections has been clearly reinforced by several high-ranking U.S. government officials and remains unchanged. The eventual U.S. recognition will come to the candidate who wins the presidential election as a result of our determination on the integrity of the electoral process led by Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court, not a negotiation with any candidate or political party,” said the U.S. Embassy in a statement.

• US SENATE RESOLUTION ON BRAZIL. On Wednesday, September 28th, the U.S. Senate passed a resolution “urging the Government of Brazil to ensure that the October 2022 elections are conducted in a free, fair, credible, transparent, and peaceful manner, otherwise the US must reconsider its relations with the Brazilian government and suspend cooperation programs, including in the military area. The text was proposed by U.S. Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA) — the Chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere — and Bernie Sanders (I-VT). The approval was unanimous, since no senator opposed the text, including members of the Republican Party. The document says that “the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil is experiencing a 335-percent increase in violence directed against political leaders in 2022 relative to 2019" and notes, without mentioning by name, that President Jair Bolsonaro works to "undermine the electoral process in Brazil". The US Senate asks that the US government to “immediately recognize the outcome 13 of the election in Brazil” and to “review and reconsider the relationship between the United States any government that comes to power in Brazil through undemocratic means, including a military coup.”

• BOLSONARO PROHIBITED FROM USING UN SPEECH IN CAMPAIGN. On Friday, September 23, Minister Benedito Gonçalves of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) ruled that major social media platforms, including Facebook, Twitter, Tiktok, and Youtube, must remove all videos of President Jair Bolsonaro at the UN General Assembly that bolster his campaign. Fearing that such videos could conjure up a false perception of international support for Bolsonaro’s reelection, the Minister gave social media networks 24 hours to comply, under penalty of a daily fine of R$ 10,000. In the same decision, Gonçalves denied a request by the Brazil of Hope Coalition, which staunchly supports the candidacy of Lula, to force TV Brasil to exclude the entirety of the President's speech at the UN. The coalition argued that Bolsonaro used the official event to defend his government and simultaneously attack the Workers’ Party. 

• “TACTICAL VOTING”. The idea of the “tactical voting” has become a hot-button issue in this year’s general election. With Lula only a few points away from winning the presidential race in the first round, many of his supporters have pressured “third-way” voters to abandon their candidates and vote for Lula to secure a victory against Bolsonaro in a single-round election. Both claiming to represent the “third-way,” Senator Simone Tebet and former governor Ciro Gomes have renounced the Lula campaign’s push for “tactical voting,” claiming that the election must be decided in two rounds. In a statement to the nation, Ciro Gomes told his supporters not to lose faith in his election bid, reaffirming his goal to "rid our country [Brazil] of a cowardly present and a fearful future.” According to the Datafolha institute, in an attempt to end the election in one round, 11% of voters have already opted to support candidates who were previously not their first choices.

• BOLSONARO LAGGING BEHIND. A survey by GLOBO reveals that almost four years after being elected president, Jair Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party is now performing in the polls below the vote he achieved in the first round of the 2018 elections in at least 15 states and the Federal District. Bolsonaro currently stands between 16 (Ipec) and 14 (Datafolha) points behind former president Lula of the Workers’ Party. The GLOBO survey helps to illustrate the president's biggest electoral challenge: the states of the Southeast, a region that is home to the three most populous states in the country and which will be the focus of campaigns in the final stretch. The phenomenon is also observed in places where the president continues to lead the race, such as Santa Catarina and Mato Grosso, but now has a smaller advantage over Lula.

• DATAFOLHA POLL. In the most recent Datafolha poll released this Thursday, September 29, former president Lula of the Workers’ Party was shown with 50% of intended votes, increasing his chances of winning in the first-round election. The incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, was shown in second place with 36% of intended votes. All trailing behind, Ciro Gomes of the Democratic Labor Party was shown with 6%, Simone Tebet of the Brazilian Democratic Movement with 5%, and Soraya Thronicke of Brazil Union with 1%. In the case of a second-round vote, Lula was shown with 54% and Bolsonaro with 39%. With only a few days left before the election, this survey was the largest ever carried out in Datafolha’s history, representing the views of 12,800 people over the age of 16 in 332 cities across Brazil. 

Feature Article

Three Possible Scenarios for the Brazilian Presidential Electoral Outcome

by Pablo Holmes 

As I write, the elections in Brazil are approaching in a strange atmosphere. Everybody expects that something bad may happen at any time either on October 2, election day, or soon thereafter. Strangely, however, there is also a feeling of relief in conversations among colleagues at the university, and among students, journalists, and political analysts. 

Despite some cases of violence, almost all of them involving Bolsonaro’s supporters attacking political opponents, the campaign has unfolded relatively quiet so far. Opinion polls have not changed much since August. Furthermore, in this last week before election day, all polls show a small increase in Lula’s leadership, who now has 47% against 32% of Bolsonaro, according to a reliable polls aggregator. After the 4-year term of a president who has trashed the presidential office from day one, everything suggests that his chances of reelection are extremely low. 

Notwithstanding, democracy is also a project in uncertainties. Indeed, one can only call an election democratic if its results are only known after the counting of votes. If the results of an election are known in advance with certainty, then it is very likely that we are witnessing an authoritarian regime with staged elections. 

With that in mind, I want to suggest the three most likely scenarios for what might happen on October 2nd, depending on the actual results that may emerge from the ballots. 

The most likely scenario still seems to be a second round on October 30th between Lula and Jair Bolsonaro. In this case, we would still have four weeks of electoral campaigning, which might become brutal, but also might turn out to be just a continuation of what we have seen in the last two months. Indeed, it is hard to imagine that Bolsonaro could overcome his record high rates of rejection. According to the polls, over 50 percent of Brazilians disapprove of his job as a president and more than that say they would not vote for him in any case. Lula’s numbers are simply much better.

Another less likely scenario would be the presidential election ending on October 2nd, with Lula receiving more than 50% of the votes, thus winning in the first round.

In both scenarios, Bolsonaro is expected to contest the electoral outcome, claiming the electoral system is rigged by leftist judges, who have stolen the elections from him using a fraudulent electronic voting system (the same system through which he was elected president, and congressman five times). Emulating Donald Trump, he will likely encourage his supporters to take to the streets. And some violence may follow. From what we know now, there is however very little enthusiasm for this within political institutions for an organized challenge by Bolsonaro to the electoral results. He has no backing in the press, or among the most important parties in Congress. Nor does this possibility have much traction among intellectuals and journalists. Most importantly, Bolsonaro has no relevant support from big business. In August, the most important business associations in the country (with exception of those related to the agrobusiness) signed a petition in defense of the voting system and supporting democratic stability. Just like Trump, it seems that Bolsonaro would have to rely exclusively on his more hard-core supporters to make a move against the Superior Elector Court, which is the government body responsible for organizing the elections. He and his backers would have few chances of success. 

In his favor, Bolsonaro has some support among the military. But given the price paid by the armed forces after the end of the military dictatorship which ruled the country between 1964 and 1985, it doesn’t seem very likely that many high-ranked officers would be willing to take that kind of risk. In fact, a coup itself is an easy thing to do, if you have the support of the military. The problem starts in the following weeks, months, and years, when economic reality kicks in and every regime must garner and maintain political support. There is no evidence that this would be an option for Brazilian officers today, let alone a coup to support a personal dictatorship of a president who has always been seen within military circles as an undisciplined ex-member of the military.

This leaves us with the much less likely, but still possible scenario of an electoral victory by Bolsonaro in the second round. In this case, we would probably see a continuation of the last four years. Conflict with judicial institutions could get worse, after Bolsonaro appoints two more judges to the Supreme Court. He could also attempt to pack the court, what would, however, be hard to pass through the senate. 

In the end, any reasonable observer of this year's Brazilian elections must agree that regardless of the election outcome, the process of institutional degradation is not limited to Bolsonaro's first term. His supporters will continue to challenge the most basic rules of constitutional democracy, and the damage already done requires major efforts to be repaired. Brazil will still live for a few years with the dire consequences of the 2018 elections.

Pablo Holmes is Associate Professor of Political Science and Constitutional Theory at the University of Brasília

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.