Jan 06 2023 | Nº. 48

Editorial

Lula Takes Office as Bolsonaro Fades

Lula’s inauguration on January 1, 2023 was the culmination of a singular feat in Brazilian history. No chief executive has won the presidency three times through free and fair elections. An unprecedented number of foreign heads of state were on hand to mark the occasion, and the crowd outnumbered the Bolsonaro supporters assembled in Brasília last September 7. One estimate put the total number at Lula’s inauguration between 150 and 170 thousand people compared to 100 thousand at the former president’s final major event. The total was less than the 300 thousand some in the Workers’ Party predicted but far greater than the 71 thousand who attended Lula’s first inauguration twenty years ago.

The tone of the first days of the Lula administration has been forward-looking, focusing on the task of swiftly reorienting the bases of public policy. “Rebuilding” has been a consistent refrain. To a degree perhaps unexpected, the former president and his most ardent allies have been relatively quiet. Bolsonaro himself fled the country the day before the swearing-in ceremony on the advice of, among others, Supreme Court minister José Antonio Dias Toffoli. According to journalist Guilherme Amado, at a goodbye dinner held two weeks ago by his former minister of communications, Bolsonaro twice broke into tears as he openly fretted about his or his children being arrested. Dias Toffoli reportedly urged the president to publicly disavow terrorist acts carried out in his name by his followers and leave the country. Bolsonaro did both. 

With Bolsonaro in the United States giving no indication of when or if he will return, many of his most ardent supporters have expressed a sense of betrayal. For now, this has produced a political lull in the far right’s campaign to undermine Brazilian democracy. Lacking a clear leader, what had expected to be fervent right-wing opposition to the Lula government on day one has largely failed to materialize, giving the new government time to iron out internal differences and begin plotting the next four years. The void on the right, however, will not stay open for long. Bolsonaro may have left, but he spoke to millions of Brazilians clamoring for a harder challenge to Brazilian democracy. As a result, there will surely be political entrepreneurs in the legislature and beyond who will try to pick up the faltering former president’s mantle. A successful Lula government might blunt the appeal of a Bolsonarista redux, but the president must be ready for the reorganization of the right that might already be underway. 

Highlights

• NEW GOVERNMENT. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva gave a powerful speech during the inauguration ceremony in Brasília on January 1, 2023 that addressed the issues of poverty and the need to reduce social inequalities in Brazil. He energetically defended democracy and preached national unity after winning an election marked by exacerbated polarization. Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro in the October 30 election by a margin of just 1.8 percent. In so doing, he became the only elected president to govern Brazil three times. His previous terms were in 2003-2006 and 2007-2010.

• SYMBOLOGY OF THE INAUGURATION. Bolsonaro traveled to Orlando, Florida on December 30th. In doing so, he avoided having to pass the presidential sash to his rival. Lula got around the situation by inviting representatives of the Brazilian population to put the presidential sash on him, which became the most emotional moment of the inauguration. The guests were Chief Raoni Metuktire, 90 years old and activist of the indigenous cause; Francisco, 10 years old, who was at the vigil for Lula's release in Curitiba; Weslley Viesba Rocha, 36 years old, a DJ and metalworker; Murilo de Quadros, 28 years old and a teacher; Jucimara Fausto dos Santos, a cook who participated in the vigils in Curitiba; and Ivan Baron, a young activist in defense of people with disabilities and their inclusion in society.

• FIRST MEASURES. As soon as he took office, Lula carried out a “revogaço” – the term given to the presidential decree repealing laws that had been implemented by the Bolsonaro government. In less than 24 hours Lula overturned laws that permitted the possession and carrying of firearms by hunters, shooters, and collectors; temporarily suspended the authorization for opening new shooting clubs; and ordered the re-registration of all firearms acquired during the four years of the Bolsonaro government. Three other significant measures in the environmental area included overturning a law that allowed mining in protected areas. The president also determined that there should be a reassessment of the secrecy decrees that Bolsonaro had imposed on a series of government measures.

• “NO AMNESTY.” In a speech to Congress, the new Brazilian president cited the nearly 700,000 deaths of Brazilians from COVID-19 and said that “the responsibilities for this genocide will have to be investigated and should not go unpunished.” Later, when mentioning the subject in a speech to those who attended the inauguration and had gathered in front of the government palace, Lula heard the people present shout in unison: “No amnesty” in a sign of support for measures to hold Bolsonaro and his ministers accountable for the mismanagement of the pandemic.

• THE ENVIRONMENT AND INDIGENOUS PEOPLE. One of the president’s cabinet appointments with the greatest impact was that of environmentalist Marina Silva to head the Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change. She had already held that same position between 2003 and 2008 during Lula's first terms in office, but she left the government after having opposed mega-projects for the construction of hydroelectric dams. Another significant appointment was that of Joenia Wapichana, the first indigenous woman to head FUNAI (National Foundation of Indigenous Peoples).

• AMAZON FUND. Lula's changes in indigenous and environmental policies have led European countries, such as Germany and Norway, to announce their intention to resume their contributions to the Amazon Fund for the preservation of the environment. Both governments had suspended these contributions during the Bolsonaro government. Another novelty is the announcement that with the change of government in Brazil the United Kingdom is also interested in contributing to the fund.

• FOREIGN POLICY. At the inauguration ceremony Lula made special mention of relations with Latin American countries, in particular with the founding partners of Mercosur – Argentina, Chile and Uruguay –, whose presidents were at the ceremony. Mauro Vieira, the new minister of foreign affairs who had already held the position in Dilma Rousseff’s second term, promised “intense protagonism” by Brazil in the international area with emphases on climate change and South America. The Brazilian press, citing behind-the-scenes information, has speculated about a possible visit by Lula to U.S. President Joe Biden, in Washington in February.

• DIVIDED POPULATION. The day before Lula took office, Datafolha, one of the main polling institutes in Brazil, showed that more than half of Brazilians (51 percent) believed that Lula will lead a better government than Bolsonaro. Only 31 percent stated that Lula will have a worse government than his predecessor, while 13 percent responded that both governments will be the same. In 2002, when Lula started his first term, 76 percent said they had positive expectations about a government by the Workers’ Party leader.

• WBO IN THE PRESS. The Brazilian news site UOL profiled James N. Green, the chairman of the WBO Board of Directors, who was invited to Lula's inauguration in Brasília. Green also gave a long interview about the new Brazilian government to the Chilean newspaper La Tercera. The Argentine news agency Telam interviewed Paulo Abrão, the executive secretary of the WBO about the challenges of the Lula government.

Feature Article

The Bolsonaro-Lula Transition in 2023

Brazil’s political and social life is returning to normal. This is something that has been happening little by little with moments of greater or lesser tension. Since 2014 when Dilma Rousseff was re-elected for a second presidential term, the country seemed to have plunged into an abyss. The reception to the result of that election was aggressively challenged, opening the door for all kinds of political contestations about the fairness of the ballot boxes and the legitimacy of the democratic order. At that moment, a very bad climate settled over the country. There was a gradual reduction in dialogue, caused by disagreements between the main political actors. First, in 2016, there was the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff, who had on recently been elected to a second term. By the time of the election of Jair Bolsonaro in 2018 there was already a clear deterioration of the democratic orders.

After all the inglorious and depoliticized conflicts of those times, the Bolsonaro government will go down in history as a true mistake of dramatic proportions. To be sure, this did not only happen in Brazil. In several countries, politicians came to power whose main intentions have been to establish themselves as autocratic leaders. In many respects, these were times of setbacks: important institutions were hijacked and the system of checks and balances experienced shaky moments.

It was also a time of scientific and institutional denial. It was a time when the Republic was at risk – even more than has been common in the history of Brazil, as the manipulation of political processes and public resources took place explicitly. Never has a Brazilian election suffered so much influence from political and economic power and from the expansion of abuses of all kinds: administrative, financial, religious, and even military.

Overcoming this structure that was set in place, including the radicalism, sectarianism and violence contained therein, was almost a miracle. This victory was only possible due to two factors in this order of importance. The first was anti-Bolsonarism, since Jair Bolsonaro's political, administrative and social conduct errors were so many and so profound that, at the same time that his popularity surged, it also produced its opposite, namely contestation and defeat. The second factor was the power of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's charisma. Another leader might not have represented as many symbolic elements as Lula possessed – even if he made mistakes at various points throughout the campaign.

Logically, it cannot be said that at this moment these threats have definitively been overcome. Bolsonaro leaves power with a significant political support, but it is much smaller than the 49.1% of the votes he received at the polls.  These votes show more the near majority strength of anti-Workers’ Party sentiments rather than the force of Bolsonarism itself. Whether he will be fit and strong enough to return to power in the next election is something that will depend a lot on the success or failure of Lula’s government. However, it will depend even more on how much Jair Bolsonaro will be able to lead the opposition without counting on the abuse of the economic and political power that he had while president.  Only time will tell.

Carlos Melo is a political scientist and a professor at Insper: Higher Education in Business, Law and Engineering, located in São Paulo.

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.