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The penultimate bulletin before Brazil’s elections finds the country in a particularly sensitive moment: the presidential race remains within the margin of error, the institutional environment is under strain, and the international dimension is no longer peripheral. Recent polls place Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro within a statistical tie in potential runoff scenarios. For the international community, however, the central issue is no longer anticipating who will win but understanding that the most important democratic test may begin precisely after the polls close. The October 4 first round may not settle the presidential race. If no candidate wins an absolute majority of valid votes, a runoff will take place on October 25. Brazil could therefore enter another three weeks of campaigning under even more intense conditions, with less room for electoral movement and stronger incentives for conflict over corruption, judicial decisions, public security, the economy, and institutional legitimacy. In such a closely contested election, seemingly secondary events can acquire disproportionate political significance. Above all, foreign governments, international organizations, the press, and civil society should watch closely for one issue: the contest over the legitimacy of the electoral process itself. The recent crisis within the Supreme Court, challenges to judicial decisions, and investigations involving figures from different political camps have created an environment in which almost any institutional move can immediately be interpreted as favoring one side. The Supreme Court crisis itself is increasingly seen as a problem that could outlast the election and continue well beyond it. Relations with the US add another layer of uncertainty. A Brazilian intelligence report classified the risk of foreign influence or interference as critical. In contrast, Brazilian officials and analysts continue to closely monitor tariffs, sanctions, and political signals coming from Washington. This assessment is not evidence that anyone will attempt to alter or delegitimize the result. Still, it means any foreign statement during the vote or immediately afterward will be received in an atmosphere of heightened suspicion. In this context, recognition of the results based on verifiable information and Brazil’s electoral institutions will be particularly important. For that reason, perhaps the best way for the international community to prepare for October 4 is to understand that the task is not simply to watch the vote count. It will also be necessary to observe the candidates’ reactions, the conduct of institutions, the circulation of disinformation, any external pressure, and, above all, political actors' willingness to accept democratic procedures even when the outcome is unfavorable to them. Brazil is going to the polls with an unresolved election. The real test will be whether everyone accepts that democratic rules must settle this uncertainty.
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