Jun 30 2023 | Nº. 73

Editorial

Whether or not former president Jair Bolsonaro will be allowed to run for office in the near future was a key question this week before the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), the body that handles juridical questions related to elections in Brazil. Responding to a formal complaint issued by the Democratic Labor Party (PDT) in August 2022, the TSE found that Bolsonaro abused his presidential powers for electoral gain. The particular incident in question occurred last year on July 18 when Bolsonaro summoned dozens of foreign ambassadors stationed in Brazil to hear him present roundly discredited conspiracy theories regarding Brazil’s electronic voting machines. The proceedings were then broadcast on TV Brasil, a public television network. Bolsonaro spent much of last year’s presidential campaign baselessly insisting that Brazil’s electronic voting machines—which have been amply assessed and even praised at home and abroad—were vulnerable and thus untrustworthy. Many analysts at the time saw such rhetoric as a preemptive attempt to sow doubt about the results of the vote in the case of a Bolsonaro defeat. The former president’s insinuations that Brazil was incapable of holding a free and fair election fueled the anti-democratic sentiment among many of his supporters that culminated in the January 8 insurrection in Brasília. It was with all of this in mind that the seven members of the TSE began voting on Bolsonaro’s future eligibility on Thursday morning and ruled against him on Friday. 

Unsurprisingly, the former president resents the prospect of being barred from running for office until 2030. On Thursday, as TSE ministers opened their session, he called the move “an injustice.” Upon landing in Rio de Janeiro, his political base, on Thursday, Bolsonaro told reporters: “Point me to something concrete that I did against democracy, I played inside the four lines the whole time.” There is, however, some recent precedent linking baseless accusations against elections to the loss of one’s ability to hold office. In 2021, the TSE revoked the mandate of a Paraná state deputy because of anti-democratic pronouncements on social media on the day of the 2018 elections. Raul Araújo was the first TSE minister to vote in favor of Bolsonaro on Thursday morning, arguing that Bolsonaro presented no real threat to Brazil’s democratic order since the former president’s views and attitude were widely known. According to that argument, the meeting with the ambassadors was not particularly consequential. Other ministers, however, insisted that Bolsonaro did serious damage to Brazil’s international standing and encouraged the anti-democratic actions of his most ardent supporters. 

Bolsonaro is likely to remain a potent ally for right-wing candidates in the years ahead even if not on the ballot. Depending on how partisan machinations play out, the former president could back a conservative governor for president in 2026. São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas, who served in Bolsonaro’s cabinet, is closest to the former president but Ratinho Jr. of Paraná and Romeu Zema of Minas Gerais are also potential standard-bearers for the right with Bolsonaro formally out of the running. 

Highlights

• Demographic census. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) released this Wednesday, June 28, the result of the most recent national census. The main finding is that Brazil had the lowest demographic growth in its history, with a growth of only 6.5% between 2010 and 2022. The country's total population is now 203.1 million. In absolute numbers, there are now 12.3 million more inhabitants than in 2010. The state with the greatest population growth was Roraima, which is on the border with Venezuela, one of the main points of migratory outflows in the world today.

• São Paulo Forum. Parties, organizations, and other groups of the Latin American left began meeting this Thursday, June 29, in Brasilia, for the 26th edition of the Foro de São Paulo. The meeting had not taken place in three years because of the pandemic. President Lula will address the Forum, which has become one of the main targets of attacks by the far right. One of the main questions facing attendees is how to handle relations with governments in the region that do not fully respect democracy and human rights.

• Crop Plan. President Lula announced this Wednesday, June 28, the equivalent of USD 74 billion for the so-called Harvest Plan for 2023/2024. This is the highest amount ever released in Brazil to finance the agricultural sector. In addition to its economic importance, the measure also aims to improve the Lula government’s relationship with agribusiness, a sector that is traditionally conservative and averse to Lula and the PT. The following day, the government announced a package equivalent to USD 15.8 for small rural producers.

• Coup investigation. The Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry investigating the January 8 coup attempt heard this Tuesday, June 27, testimony from Army Colonel Jean Lawand Júnior. He is the author of a series of coup-like messages that were found on the cell phone of another military officer, Colonel Mauro Cid, who was President Jair Bolsonaro's assistant. In the messages, Lawand pressures Cid to ask Bolsonaro to support a coup d'état. In his testimony to the Commission, Lawand said the opposite: that his messages were intended to ask Bolsonaro to discourage a coup. The colonel’s defense was poorly received and contested by the members of the Commission, and may even lead to future legal action against him.

• Lira on the list. The Federal Police found references to the President of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira, in documents dealing with the transfer of funds illicitly diverted from public contracts in cities in Northeastern Brazil. The contracts relate to a robotics teaching program in public schools. The case involves the possible embezzlement of the equivalent of more than USD 171.5 thousand, of which the equivalent of at least USD 133 thousand had the name “Arthur” in front of the spreadsheets and notes. Lira, who belongs to the right-wing Progressive Party (PP) and is a key figure in negotiations between the Lula government and a legislature dominated by a conservative majority, will lead Brazil’s lower house of Congress until February 2025.

• Lula's re-election. The Electoral Work Group of the Workers' Party (PT) is considering launching Lula's candidacy for re-election in 2026. The position contradicts what Lula himself had said about not seeking a new term - which would be the second consecutive and the fourth total. One of the members of the PT Group, deputy Jilmar Tatto, said that "there is no doubt" that Lula will seek another term.

Feature Article

by David Nemer

June 2013: Reflecting on the June Protests a Decade Later

In June 2013, Brazil was hit by the most extensive series of protests in more than two decades. This wave of protests, known as the June Protests (Jornadas de junho), led more than two million people to take to the streets in over 400 cities. The initial protests took place in early June in the city of São Paulo, but they spread throughout the year reaching a peak in October. Scholars have characterized the Jornadas de junho as the country's first popular uprising of truly national proportions. However, given their complexities, analysists are still attempting to understand the outcomes and consequences of such social movements. 

Some argue that June 2013 was the serpent's egg that originated Bolsonarism, the far-right movement led by Jair Bolsonaro. Others believe it was the initial step that led to Dilma Rousseff's impeachment. Furthermore, the protests provided fertile ground for the emergence of various media forms, including feminist outlets, Black journalists, investigative websites, and collectives specializing in live-streaming protests, such as Mídia Ninja. Nevertheless, after 10 years, there is still no consensus on the ultimate outcome of June 2013—and it's unlikely that there ever will be. The reason lies in the heterogeneous nature of the movement, which held different meanings for diverse individuals in various locations and stages. It simply cannot be classified under a single category.

During the Jornadas de junho, we witnessed conservative voices calling for Dilma's impeachment and even a military coup, although not as forcefully and explicitly as we would see in the subsequent years, starting in 2014. Simultaneously, progressive and left-wing groups also took to the streets, legitimately protesting against issues such as increased bus fares, privatized "public" transportation, inadequate healthcare, flawed public security, and deteriorating public education. These groups played a significant role in promoting and enriching the experiences of movements advocating for the rights of Blacks, the LGBTQIA+ community, feminists, and students.

However, despite its heterogeneity, June 2013 provides us with two overarching lessons about the events that unfolded. First, it highlighted the significance of social media in facilitating the organization of social movements. Since then, Brazilians have increasingly turned to platforms like Facebook, Twitter, and WhatsApp to engage in political discussions and coordinate protests. Following Brazil's disappointing performance in the 2014 World Cup, the approaching presidential election sparked fresh motivations for people to take to the streets and utilize social media platforms. The tone of the protests was largely set by Twitter and Facebook posts, which focused on topics such as the Brazilian recession, Operation Car Wash, and Dilma Rousseff's government. This legacy is still evident in recent protests, including the anti-fascist demonstrations in 2020, as well as the anti-democratic protests by Bolsonarists during Bolsonaro's tenure.

Secondly, despite the wins of left-wing and progressive movements, they should have organized and strategized more effectively in order to maintain a lasting presence both on the streets and online. Instead, it was the so-called "new right" groups that were able to capitalize on these opportunities more effectively. In the subsequent years, conservative groups thrived and occupied both physical and digital spaces, such as Movimento Brasil Livre (MBL) (Free Brazil Movement), Revoltados Online (Online Rebels), and Vem Pra Rua (Come to the Street). They gained fame by rallying teenagers and young adults on social media platforms like YouTube and Facebook. Although claiming to be nonpartisan, they became known as the "new right" because their defense of neoliberal values aligned with traditional right-wing parties. Their nonpartisanship was questionable since their social media content primarily criticized the left, including Dilma Rousseff and the Workers' Party (PT), and propagated disinformation campaigns against progressive ideologies. The organizers of these groups took advantage of the lack of leadership and partisan divisions during the 2013 protests to hijack the movement and steer it towards conservative and neoliberal values. The anti-systemic corruption narrative of 2013 gradually transformed into a moralizing agenda. For instance, conservative activists accused the PT of promoting gender ideology in schools. This neoconservative reaction aimed to appropriate the symbols and names associated with the June protests as their own propaganda. For example, Movimento Brasil Livre referenced Movimento Passe Livre (Free Pass Movement) and their slogan, often used as a hashtag, "Vem Para Rua" (Come to the Street).

Throughout 2015 and 2016, these "new right" groups capitalized on the perception of economic and political crises to expand their influence on Facebook and foster an unsustainable environment of anger and discontent towards the federal government. They played a pivotal role in organizing the largest protest in Brazil's history, with over three million people taking to the streets on March 13, 2016. Ultimately, these groups emerged as an organized and unified voice on the streets and online, advocating for Dilma's impeachment and paving the way for the election of Bolsonaro.

There is much to learn and analyze about the jornadas de junho, and perhaps it will take another 10 years to fully comprehend their impact. One thing is certain: if we aspire to keep Brazil on a progressive path towards a more equal and just society, we must recognize that it requires ongoing and active engagement. We cannot relinquish our presence in various spaces that allow us to voice our demands.

David Nemer is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Media Studies and an Affiliated Faculty in the Department of Anthropology at the University of Virginia. His research areas are technology use in marginalized regions, such as the favelas of Brazil and Havana, Cuba, and misinformation studies.

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.