Editorial

The Official Beginning of the Presidential Race

On Tuesday, August 16 the presidential campaign officially got underway. The most recent polling conducted by DataFolha showed former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) far ahead of the pack at 47 percent in the first round versus 32 percent for the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. Former Ceará governor Ciro Gomes of the Democratic Labor Party (PDT) remains in third place with 7 percent of the vote, three times as much as Senator Simone Tebet of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) at 2 percent. What the poll reveals more than anything is that as Brazilians begin to turn their attention to the presidential race—candidates have been jockeying for months, but much of the country has not followed the day-to-day politicking that goes into mounting a serious campaign—little has changed. If Bolsonaro and his allies expected him to grow naturally in the polls as election day nears, they have so far been frustrated. The president’s deliberate attempts to gin up electoral support have also apparently fallen flat. His Auxílio Brasil (Brazil Assistance), essentially a rebranding of the Bolsa Família conditional cash transfer program created during Lula’s administration, upped payments to needy families from $400 reais (about $78 dollars) to $600 reais (about $117 dollars) in early August, a move critics decried as a desperate attempt to curry favor late in an election year. Many expected this to tighten the race somewhat, but it did not. Lula’s argument is that poor and working-class voters see through Bolsonaro’s shallow appeals. So far, if polls are any indication, he appears to be right.

Where the numbers have changed somewhat is among evangelical voters, a portion of the population Lula has gone out of his way to pry away from the president. It so far has not worked. In the previous DataFolha poll, Bolsonaro stood at 43 percent among evangelicals compared to Lula’s 33 percent. Now, the incumbent is at 49 percent support, Lula dropped one point to 32. The distance between them, in other words, has grown. Bolsonaro is usually vague about his religious affiliation. He is Catholic but has historically been extremely close with evangelical leaders and their followers. Indeed, they have been among his most loyal and passionate supporters. Now, as reported in Folha de São Paulo this week, there seems to be some concern that Bolsonaro’s identification with evangelicals might drive Catholics—still a massive chunk of the population—away. Like Fernando Haddad of the PT four years ago, Lula leads Bolsonaro among Catholics, 52 percent to 27 percent. It is almost certainly impossible for Lula to best Bolsonaro among the large and growing swathe of the evangelical voters, but this has not stopped him from appealing to them directly in an attempt to chip away at the incumbent’s advantage.

Bolsonaro’s strongest core of support are older white men in the southeast, but based on the Quaest poll released on Tuesday, August 15, he also appears to be making inroads among young people. Lula is the overwhelming favorite among popular musicians, artists, and actors, but Bolsonaro benefits from a savvy social media strategy. In the last poll, Lula led Bolsonaro by thirteen points among young voters. Now, the difference is only eight points, 42 percent versus 34 percent. These shifts have not yet impacted the broad contours of the race, which has remained remarkably stable over the course of this year. In fact, Bolsonaro has not led a single poll taken in 2022. This is cause for cautious celebration among those eager to see the president cast out of office next year. It suggests that Bolsonaro is failing to capitalize on the considerable advantages of incumbency. It remains to be seen whether Bolsonaro can grow his base of support as television advertisements begin, although it should be noted that this was not a major part of Bolsonaro’s victory in 2018 since he did not have much television time. Debates are also likely to have an effect, although both Lula and Bolsonaro have shown themselves to be reluctant to engage in such events. Bolsonaro will likely become increasingly desperate since, as of now, some polls show he will lose to Lula in the first round, never even getting the chance to face the former president one-to-one in a runoff. That would indeed be a crushing defeat for Bolsonaro and a massive vote of confidence in the former president.

Highlights

• COUP CAPITALISM. Businessmen who support Jair Bolsonaro openly defend a coup d'état if Lula is elected in October, defeating the current president. The possibility of a democratic rupture was the apex of radicalism in the Bolsonarist WhatsApp group "Entrepreneurs & Politics." The group was created last year. Brazilian ournalists have been following the exchanges for months. The explicit defense of a coup adds to a posture common to almost all monitored messages: systematic attacks on the Federal Supreme Court (STF), the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), and any people or institutions that oppose the authoritarian impulses of Jair Bolsonaro. The group brings together businessmen from different regions of the country and major economic players across different sectors. Among them: Luciano Hang, owner of Havan; Afrânio Barreira, from the Coco Bambu Group; José Isaac Peres, owner of shopping mall giant Multiplan; José Koury, owner of Barra World Shopping in Rio de Janeiro; Ivan Wrobel, from construction company W3 Engenharia; and Marco Aurélio Raymundo, known as Morongo, owner of the surfwear brand Mormaii.

• ARMED FORCES IN ELECTIONS. President Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) published Friday 12 a decree authorizing the use of the Armed Forces during the October 2022 elections. The Defense Minister, Paulo Sérgio Nogueira, and the head of the Institutional Security Office, General Augusto Heleno, are signatories of the decree.

• THE ELECTORAL RACE STARTS. The election campaigns started on Tuesday, August 16, with different proposals, obstacles, and starting points. The main competitors for the post, ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party), President Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party), ex-minister Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labor Party), and Senator Simone Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement), kick off the vote-hunting season focusing mostly on getting support for states in the Southeast, where 42.6% of Brazilian voters live.

• SHY SUPPORTERS. More than a third of candidates for governor who are in the official electoral coalition led by Jair Bolsonaro's Liberal Party do not publish images or make references to the current president on their social networks. Of the 27 local political coalitions Bolsonaro has formally secured as allies in the race for reelection, 10 have not mentioned or used his image on Twitter and Instagram in the current semester, even after the party conventions as the election process heats up.

• LASER FOCUS. The campaign of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party) outlines strategies to contain the Bolsonarist recovery of support in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, in addition to the impacts of the aid granted by the federal government. So far, Lula continues to focus on issues related to the economy, such as hunger and poverty. The campaign is focusing on the lives of ordinary, comparing the current government with Lula's administrations, without raising issues related to gender, sexuality, or moral questions raised by Bolsonaro and and his allies.

• RADICAL DIFFERENCES IN ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY. Climate change, energy transition, and combating deforestation are themes in policy proposals formulated by former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers' Party) and in the program presented by his primary opponent, President Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party). However, both plans diverge on critical issues: assessment of the situation, if and how to decarbonize the economy, control of illegal mining, and protection of indigenous lands. Lula's electoral plan states that rebuilding Brazilian environmental policy and institutions are essential after years of Bolsonaro's mismanagement. On the other hand, Bolsonaro proposes to continue some policies and incorporate themes that did not exist in the 2018 campaign, such as climate change and deforestation.

• THE MEDIA, THE AMAZON, AND THE 2022 ELECTIONS. The WBO is pleased to participate in the launching of Smoke Signal's The Amazon and Future of Brazil: a Guide. An examination of the region's 9 Brazilian states between 2018 and 2022. The event requires prior registration. The panelist will be: Rebeca Lerer (Sinal de Fumaça), Elaíze Farias (Amazônia Real), Katia Brembatti (ABRAJI), Jonathan Watts (The Guardian) and Paulo Abrão (Washington Brazil Office), moderated by by Helena Palmquist. Activists and social movements from the nine states of the Brazilian Amazon region will share their work and analysis. The webinar will take place on August 30th at 11am (BRT). Simultaneous translation (Port/Eng) will be provided. Spaces are limited and the event will not be broadcasted live to the general public, so we suggest your registering here in advance.

Feature Article

The Setback of Women's Rights in Bolsonaro's Brazil

By Bruna Della Torre

On May 22nd, a ten-year girl who had been raped went to a public hospital accompanied by her mother to obtain an abortion. According to the law, abortion is only legal in Brazil in cases of anencephaly, rape, and risk to the pregnant woman's life. Even though the girl had just discovered she was pregnant, the hospital refused to do the procedure without juridical authorization because she was 22 weeks along. The hospital established a rule that the procedure was only possible until 20 weeks of gestation (which is not specified in the law). She was sent to a shelter while her case went to court for weeks. In a video released by The Intercept Brasil, the judge responsible for the case tried to convince the girl to go on with the pregnancy. She kept asking if the girl could bear that for just for a little longer until the baby could be born when it could be given up for adoption even though this ignored the many risks pregnancy imposes upon on a ten-year-old girl. The public prosecutor in the case told the girl and her mother that if the abortion were performed, the baby, which was already developed, would die in agony, crying. This was not true; the abortion procedure in Brazil extracts the fetus without cardiac activity.

According to a report published by the newspaper Folha de São Paulo, Damares Regina Alves, an Evangelical pastor and former secretary of the Ministry of Women, Family and Human Rights, tried to stop the abortion by offering benefits to the family to keep the fetus and by pressuring the authorities in the state to avoid the abortion. The girl received the procedure (even though she had to travel to another state to obtain the abortion with a huge personal and psychological cost after the process).

Now, the Ministry of Women, Family, and Human Rights is demanding that the Public Ministry investigate the doctors who carried out the procedure and The Intercept for publishing the video. The Health Ministry is also revising the document "Technical attention for prevention, assessment, and management in cases of abortion." One of the those invited to debate the document is Joana Ribeiro, the judge who played the abovementioned role in the case.

These events summarize what is happening in Brazil under Bolsonaro's government. In addition to the president's many misogynistic statements, this Ministry aims to undo the few public policies that protect women in Brazil. During the last years, Alves defended the "Estatuto do Nascituro" a project archived in 2007 that criminalizes abortion in all situations. She also proposed a project known as "the rape pension": an 18-year pension for women who got pregnant because of rape that would allow her to raise the child. Already as Minister, Alves accused the left of defending the legalization of pedophilia in Brazil. She connects the struggle for reproductive rights and cannabis legalization with pedophilia practices. Alves was also involved in creating the project "Municipality Friend of the Family," which seeks to "implement actions that value the family, social protection and the strengthening of conjugal bonds," excluding non-heterosexual families and single mothers.

In addition to the access to abortion becoming much more difficult and persecuted in this context -- even within the parameters in which it is considered legal and in a framework that reinforces heteronormativity, the Bolsonaro government has consciously pursued a setback in women's rights for other reasons. According to Instituto de Estudos Socioeconômicos, the budget to combat violence against women in 2022 is three times smaller compared to 2020. This happens even though according to "Fórum de Segurança Pública," one in every 4 Brazilian women (24.4%) over 16 years old claims to have suffered some violence or aggression during the covid-19 pandemic. That means about 17 million women have endured physical, psychological, or sexual violence in this period. Bolsonaro revised and relaxed many gun-control laws in Brazil, which has also increased violence against women.

As in many other countries in Latin America, women, especially racialized poor women, are responsible for a significant part of the reproductive work in society – waged and non-waged. With the neoliberal cuts to education, childcare, and public transportation, women were one of the most affected populations by the pandemic: financially, psychologically, and physically. In many states in the country, because of the rise in the gas price, women have been using wood for cooking. Even though their work in their own house, in hospitals, and in schools as caretakers are essential for society to work and reproduce, women are one of the most attacked sectors in society in Bolsonaro's violent government.

___________________________________________

Bruna Della Torre is a fellow at the Käte Hamburger Centre for Apocalyptic and Post-Apocalyptic Studies at Heidelberg University, executive editor of Crítica Marxista, and a member of the "Feminist Marxism" collective.

______________________________________________
Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.