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— by Paulo Abrão, executive director of the Washington Brazil Office The first round of the elections on October 4 did not decide who will be Brazil’s next president, but it changed the country’s political balance. Flávio Bolsonaro finished ahead, with 47.03% of valid votes, against Lula’s 45.16%. The gap is narrow, but its significance extends beyond the presidential race: the Bolsonaro movement expanded its presence in Congress and enters the runoff strengthened. The election remains open; however, the conditions for governing over the next four years have already begun to take shape. The Liberal Party (PL) won 121 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and will hold 28 in the Senate, making it the largest party in both chambers. These gains increase its influence over the legislative agenda, the selection of congressional leaders, and relations with the Supreme Federal Court. A Lula victory would face greater parliamentary resistance. A Flávio victory could bring the executive and legislative branches together around an institutional transformation whose democratic limits will require scrutiny. It would be premature to reduce the outcome to a single explanation. Voting decisions reflect assessments of income, the cost of living, security, corruption, public services, and trust in institutions. Nor does a demand for change mean that society has granted a mandate to weaken rights or democratic checks. Both candidates must clarify what change they offer, who would benefit, and what commitments they make to the Constitution. For Lula, the challenge is to present a future that goes beyond defending the past. An incumbent must acknowledge public dissatisfaction, account for his or her administration's limitations, and explain what she or he will do differently. For Flávio, his lead brings greater responsibility to present proposals that can be assessed and to clarify how he intends to exercise power, including amid pressure from allies for amnesties for those involved in the attempt to overthrow the Lula government in 2022/23 and the removal of Supreme Court justices. Both owe the country concrete answers. Until October 25, our bulletin will follow proposals, alliances, and polls, as well as commitments to rights, participation, and the separation of powers. We will need to distinguish legitimate criticism from institutional threats, promises from implementable measures, and political support from foreign interference. The quality of democracy depends on these distinctions, especially as the contest intensifies. The first round redistributed power. The runoff will determine how that power is exercised and within what limits.
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