Jul 21 2026 | Nº 16

Brazil’s Elections:
The Far Right Seeks to Reorganize

By Paulo Abrão
Executive Director of the Washington Brazil Office

The opening of Brazil’s party conventions marks the beginning of one of the most decisive phases of the country’s 2026 presidential campaign.

This week’s most significant political movement is taking place within the far right. The challenges facing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, intensified by the lingering Banco Master scandal, family disputes, and the political fallout from the U.S. tariffs on Brazilian exports, have fueled growing doubts about his ability to lead the opposition competitively through October. That uncertainty is already reshaping party dynamics, as conventions begin amid intense internal disputes across several Brazilian states.

At the same time, the conservative camp is seeking to strengthen its international profile. Argentine President Javier Milei’s visit to attend the Liberal Party (PL) convention and meet with São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas underscores efforts to build a network of South American right-wing leaders. Milei’s presence also highlights Tarcísio’s continued importance as one of Bolsonaro’s movement’s strongest political assets, particularly as Flávio Bolsonaro faces mounting political difficulties.

Meanwhile, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has centered his strategy on defending Brazil’s national sovereignty and highlighting recent economic indicators, seeking to turn the government’s response to U.S. measures into a domestic political advantage.

The coming weeks will reveal whether Brazil’s right can successfully reorganize its leadership or whether it will enter the presidential campaign more fragmented than expected. Beyond opinion polls, the party conventions themselves may prove to be one of the most important factors shaping the trajectory of Brazil’s 2026 elections.

QUICK CATCH-UP

Trump and Rubio enter the Brazilian election

After a year-long investigation, the US Trade Representative confirmed 25% tariffs on Brazilian goods effective July 22, covering 18% to 21% of Brazilian exports depending on the estimate. Brasília announced a relief program for exposed companies and threatened to trigger the Reciprocity Law, which authorizes countermeasures.

The bark faded fast. The government will not retaliate unless it is confident the move will not stoke inflation at home — a calculation that leaves Brazil's chief legal weapon holstered for the time being.

Foreign policy now occupies a place in the presidential race it has never held, and the announcement drew responses along predictable lines. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva blamed the Bolsonaro family's lobbying in Washington, reminding voters the family sought US sanctions and tariffs to force the Supreme Court to drop the case against Jair Bolsonaro, convicted last year for staging a coup. Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, his strongest challenger, called Lula incompetent for failing to avert the tariffs. Candidates polling behind blamed both.

After Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Brazil of never negotiating in good faith, Brasília made some of the terms on the table public, arguing Washington wanted capitulation — conditions no country of Brazil's size and weight could accept.

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The electoral calendar reaches an important milestone

Party conventions opened Monday, and until they conclude nobody in Brazil is legally a candidate. That includes the presidency, alongside governorships, Senate seats, the House and state legislatures. Nomination happens at the convention, and parties set their own terms: in person, virtual or hybrid, decided by a floor vote or by a handful of leaders. 

The Superior Electoral Court sets the guardrails: attendance lists and minutes must be published on its site, and parties must register their governing bodies with the relevant Regional Electoral Court. The deadline is August 5, and the campaign officially begins

Coalitions are permitted only for majoritarian offices: president, governor and senator, with two Senate seats per state on the ballot. Legislative races, decided proportionally, cannot be run in coalition. 

Renan Santos, the right-wing firebrand, was due to be nominated on August 1, but his party, Mission, moved its convention up to Monday, citing security concerns. Santos says criminal groups have threatened him, and presidential candidate status entitles him to a Federal Police detail. The other major candidates' conventions:

• July 25: Flávio Bolsonaro (Liberal Party);

• July 26: Ronaldo Caiado (Social Democratic Party);

• July 27: Romeu Zema (Novo);

• August 2: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the incumbent (Workers' Party).

A plan to certify pollsters draws fire

Kassio Nunes Marques, Brazil's chief electoral justice, defended the creation of accuracy seals for pollsters whose final numbers land closest to the result. The badge would apply in general election years and only to exit polls and surveys released within a week of the vote.

Pollsters revolted. "Surveys aren't predicting the future nor issuing promises," the Brazilian Association of Research Companies said. "Between the interview and the voting, people can change their opinions." A cynic would note that pollsters want it both ways: when the numbers match the result, they advertise it. Newer firms in the industry backed the idea.

This is not Marques's first run-in with pollsters. In June, he barred Atlas Intel from publishing a May 19 poll on voters' views of Flávio Bolsonaro's ties to the Banco Master scandal. The problem: Atlas had respondents listen to recordings of Flávio asking Master's former chief executive for money. The pollster defended the method, saying the audio came only after respondents had named their candidate, and was meant to gauge how voters reacted once they learned of the scandal.

Discrediting pollsters is standard Bolsonaro practice, deployed hardest when the family is losing — and Flávio trails in every survey. More recently, Flávio contested Quaest numbers putting him 8 points behind Lula in a simulated runoff.

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OTHER STORIES WE’RE FOLLOWING

Electoral court wants platforms to cooperate

The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) signed cooperation agreements on July 16 with TikTok, Google, OpenAI and other platforms, extending a framework approved earlier this year on the use of AI by candidates.

The core provision is a blackout on AI-generated content, from 72 hours before election day to 24 hours after polls close. Chief Electoral Justice Kassio Nunes Marques flagged the measure at a June 16 event The Brazilian Report held with foreign diplomats. Outside that window, platforms must label synthetic media, enforce their own policies and build tools to detect coordinated bot activity.

The deal is only voluntary, and platforms have historically done little to stop anyone from firehosing public discourse with falsehoods. Marques, meanwhile, is seen as hands-off on content moderation — unlike Alexandre de Moraes, who ran the electoral court during the 2022 campaign and moved aggressively to force platforms to take down what he deemed disinformation.

Barbosa drops out of a race he was never really in

Former Supreme Court Justice Joaquim Barbosa has abandoned his presidential bid, starved of funds by Christian Democracy, the party he joined in April. His allies saw him as the only credible alternative to the Lula-Bolsonaro duopoly, able to draw voters from both sides. Barbosa gained popularity as rapporteur of the 2012 Mensalão trial, the largest corruption case in Brazilian history, which sent several political heavyweights to prison. 

After leaving the Supreme Court in 2014, he weighed a presidential run in 2018, polling around 10% at one point but never committing.