Editorial

Th be Rhetoric of Promises and Threats and the Reality of COVID

In a sign that President Jair Bolsonaro is looking to curry favor with powerful political forces that shape the contours of Brazilian politics, this week he indicated that, if reelected, he will likely create three new government ministries. Bolsonaro campaigned in 2018 on a promise to reduce the size of the federal government, cutting positions and offices deemed expendable. Like previous administrations, however, the current government has recognized that doling out political positions is one of the main tools presidents have to stay in power and implement policy. At the same time as he signals a possible second term in office, Bolsonaro also continues calling into question his country’s ability to carry out a free and fair election, a rhetorical strategy widely seen as a preemptive pretext for Bolsonaro to reject the outcome of the October presidential election if it does not go his way. On Monday, Bolsonaro lambasted Supreme Court minister and current head of the Superior Electoral Court Edson Fachin for meeting with 70 foreign ambassadors in Brazil to discuss the security of the country’s voting systems. Bolsonaro said he would be meeting with ambassadors himself upon returning from the United States, where he attended the Summit of the Americas. 

With an eye to Brazil’s polarization, Ciro Gomes, the former governor of Ceará, cabinet minister in the administration of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, and currently placing third in the polls, argued that his candidacy is the only one that can calm the nation’s nerves after Bolsonaro’s anti-democratic actions and Lula’s supposed corruption. “Do you think that, if Lula is elected, the country will awaken more or less pacified?” he asked on a popular podcast this week. Despite his consistent campaigning as other contenders have entered and left the race, Ciro has been unable to grow his support past the high single digits in the polls. Given reports that members of his party eager to support Lula are growing anxious about his viability, Ciro has recently escalated his attacks not only on Bolsonaro but on Lula as well. So far it has had no statistical effect. It could, however, turn a considerable number of Ciro voters against Lula. This could be particularly damaging for the progressive side in the case of a run-off between Lula and Bolsonaro. 

Lula has been carrying out an active travel and event schedule and, perhaps for that reason, contracted COVID-19 this week along with his wife. Indeed, Lula’s positive diagnosis is a reminder that the pandemic threatens to come rearing back in Brazil, one of countries hardest hit by coronavirus as a result of the federal government’s negligent response. As of Tuesday, Brazil had the highest number of COVID cases since February. The number of people with COVID has jumped 144% in two weeks. It is difficult to predict how a COVID19 resurgence—a prospect that remains unlikely given the country’s high vaccination rates—would affect what is expected to be the most momentous campaign of Brazil’s recent democratic history. It seems safe to say, however, that it would not bolster Bolsonaro’s chances. 

Highlights

• ECONOMY AFFECTS ELECTIONS: Research shows that for 44% of Brazilians the economy is currently the country's main problem and that inflation is the sub-topic that most worries voters. For 57% of them, it is more difficult to pay bills and for almost a third (28%), the blame for the rise in fuel prices lies with President Bolsonaro.

• FIRST LADY IN POLITICS: First Lady Michele Bolsonaro has been called on to help Bolsonaro with Evangelical female votes. She recently participated in a meeting with Evangelical leaders and declared that Bolsonaro is fulfilling God’s purpose for Brazil and she defended that the current president "an instrument of God in this war." The first lady also pointed to the country’s prosperity and the nation’s liberation, affirming: "The one who governs Brazil is the Lord Jesus; this nation belongs to the Lord".

• LATEST POLL: The Genial Quaest poll reveals that Workers’ Party presidential candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva Lula (PT) is project to receive 53.4% ​​of valid votes. The sum of all other candidates amounts to only 41%, suggesting that the election can be resolved in the first round on October 2. In a question in which candidates’ names are given to the interviewees, Lula scores 46%, Bolsonaro has 30%, Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labor Party, PDT) 7%, André Janones (Avante) 2%, Simone Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement, MDB) and José Maria Eymael (Chritian Democrats, DC) 1%. Other presidential candidates do not reach 1%. Undecided, blank and invalidated ballots are 6%, and 7% say they will not vote.

• IRREGULAR RESIDENCY: The São Paulo Regional Electoral Court (TRE-SP) annulled the transfer of Sérgio Moro’s electoral domicile from Paraná to São Paulo. The former Lava Jato (Car Wash) Investigation judge and ex-Minister of Justice in the Bolsonaro administration, reported an had a hotel in São Paulo as his residence, which was considered an irregularity. The ex-judge will have to run for political office from the State of Paraná, his real residency.

• RISK OF BREAKING THE CONSTITUTIONAL ORDER: President Jair Bolsonaro declared that he may not comply with decisions of the Federal Supreme Court. “I was from the time when ‘the Supreme Court’s decision was not discussed, it was carried out.’ I was from that time. I’m not anymore."

• BIDEN-BOLSONARO: More than 70 Brazilian civil society organizations signed a letter delivered yesterday to President Joe Biden, asking him in his meeting with Bolsonaro at the Summit of the Americas in Los Angeles, California to pressure him to respect democracy and protect the Amazon. "We are preparing for Bolsonaro's version of January 6 if he loses reelection," the groups warned, referring to the date of the Capitol invasion.

• PSDB WITH TEBET: The PSDB decided to formally support the candidacy of Brazilian Democratic Movement Senator Simone Tebet for president. It will be the first time, since redemocratization, that the party will not launch its own candidate in the presidential race. Senator Tasso Jereissati of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party will be her vice-presidential running mate as the two parties work out an electoral agreement.

• POLLING CENSORSHIP: Under political pressure, including demonstrations by Flávio Bolsonaro, the president's son, XP Investimentos canceled the publication of an Ipespe survey that gives Lula an advantage over Bolsonaro. XP Investimentos, which was conducting a weekly election poll, has now decided that it will only publish a monthly survey.

• LULA APOLOGIZES FOR THE PT'S MISTAKES: Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Workers’ Party, PT) apologized for possible mistakes made by PT's administrations: “We have to apologize to the people for making a mistake. We have to try to correct what we didn't do right. This is not shameful. The word 'sorry' is only used by grown people, with dignity, morals and character. Small people, mediocre people don't have the courage to use the word 'sorry,'" the former president stated.

Feature Article

Brazil: Elections and Democracy Threatened

By Armando Boito Jr.

In Brazil, this year's election and democracy itself are seriously threatened. The threat comes from the President of the Republic and the leadership of the Armed Forces. A response by democratic forces to such a threat is of utmost urgency. Moreover, the Brazilian situation has a negative impact on other South American countries.

As has been the case since the ratification of the 1988 Constitution, which ended the military dictatorship, the October 2022 elections will choose deputies (congressional representatives), senators, state governors and the president of the Republic. Since the mid-1990s, this process has been computerized – the process of casting ballots and tabulating the results is done electronically. A few hours after polls close on election day, the winner can be announced. For decades, elections have been conducted in this way, and, until now, no political party or relevant political or social actors have questioned their fairness. The Brazilian judiciary even has a special branch to oversee the electoral process, the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE). It has a large and qualified team of IT technicians, is very well equipped with modern computers, has a widespread presence throughout the country, and responds vigorously to possible threats to the fairness of the elections.

The current threat only exists because President Jair Bolsonaro, a politician who prides himself on holding authoritarian and prejudiced positions, has repeatedly stated that he will not accept electoral defeat because the Brazilian voting process will likely, according to him, be manipulated by the TSE. More than once he has stated that he can prove such an accusation, but, so far, he has not presented any evidence. Instead, he keeps repeating the threats. His attitude is very similar to that of Donald Trump after he lost the 2016 US election to Joe Biden. The point is to find the strangest and most bizarre excuses to disrupt the electoral process, encourage extreme right-wing groups to intimidate voters, and, if defeated, refuse to recognize the election result.

Bolsonaro's desperation stems from the fact that polls indicate that Workers’ Party candidate Lula da Silva, who is supported by a broad spectrum of democratic forces, is likely to win the elections against a person who has, since his inauguration, threatened democracy. Bolsonaro frequently organizes street demonstrations with his supporters in which he praises Brazil’s most recent dictatorship; calls for closing the Federal Supreme Court (STF); threatens workers' organizations and the press; and promotes prejudice against the movements of women, blacks, and the LGBT population. Bolsonarism is similar to fascistic movements in its reactionary authoritarianism, which frequently mobilizes its base of support.

Bolsonaro has already carried out two failed coup attempts. In March and April 2020 and in September 2021, he campaigned publicly and with massive street demonstrations for the closure of the STF. Facing pushback from the judiciary, pro-democracy parties, and the press, the president backed down. Recently, however, he has reissued his charges, now with the aim of preventing the October elections from being carried out or annulling them it if the results are not in his favor. The situation is all the more serious because his government has the support of the Brazilian armed forces, an institution responsible for two long dictatorial periods during the twentieth century.

As previously noted, the mobilization in defense of elections and Brazilian democracy is still far short of what is necessary to stop Bolsonaro. Pro-democracy parties and organizations, in addition to relying on their own forces, need the support of allies around the world. Unfortunately, at the moment, threats against democracy are not an exclusively Brazilian problem.

Armando Boito, Jr is Full Professor in the Department of Political Science at the State University of Campinas, Brazil. He is the author of Reform and Political Crisis in Brazil: Class Conflicts in Workers' Party Governments and the Rise of Bolsonaro Neo-fascism. Boston: Brill. 2021.

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.