Editorial

The First Debate

This week was marked by fallout from the first presidential debate, held last Sunday. While the race has been remarkably stable so far, with former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading every poll taken this year against the far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro, there was uncertainty up until the debate began as to whether the frontrunners would participate. In the end, however, the highly-anticipated event proceeded as scheduled, with the major figures all on stage. A minor incident backstage seemed to set the tone for the night when Bolsonaro’s former environment minister Ricardo Salles almost came to blows in a dispute with André Janones, a social media-savvy Lula booster. While candidates went after each other in predictable ways, their responses equally rehearsed, the most memorable exchange of the night was between the president and a journalist.

It began when Vera Magalhães of TV Cultura posed a question to former Ceará governor Ciro Gomes about an alarming decline in vaccination rates for diseases like polio, measles, and tuberculosis, particularly considering that Brazil has in the past been a world leader in broad-based immunization. Ciro responded by placing faltering vaccine coverage within a broader context of federal mismanagement, immiseration, and polarization under Bolsonaro. Given a chance to respond, Bolsonaro chose not to address Ciro’s powerful critique. Instead, he stared at the journalist and unloaded: “Vera, I couldn’t have expected anything else from you. I think you go to sleep thinking about me; you have some kind of passion for me. You can’t take sides in a debate like this [and] make dishonest accusations about me. You are an embarrassment to Brazilian journalism, but okay.”

The president then went on to criticize the legislative performance of Senator Simone Tebet, one of two women on the debate stage, who achieved a degree of national stature after participating vociferously in an official investigation of Bolsonaro’s handling of COVID19. “But I’m not attacking women,” Bolsonaro added, apparently aware of how his attacks were coming off all of a sudden. “Don’t come with that little story [that I am] attacking women, of self-victimizing. Vera,” he concluded with an ironic smirk and a shuffling of papers, “you were really fantastic. Giving me an opportunity to tell a little bit of truth about you.” The debate went on, but it was clear right away that this would be the moment that people remembered about the night. All of the male candidates criticized Bolsonaro’s misogyny and extended their solidarity to the offended journalist, but the two women senators running for president were particularly sharp in attacking the president from that point on.

Polls taken since the debate indicate that it has only had a slight effect on the contours of the race. During the debate, Senator Simone Tebet, running for president for the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), and former Ceará governor Ciro Gomes of the Democratic Labor Party received high marks from viewers, and the DataFolho poll of September 2 shows Tebet moving from 3 to 5 points and Gomes increasing from 7 to 9 points. Yet both are still seen as longshots. In that same poll, Lula is 13% ahead of Bolsonaro with 45% support vesus 32% for the current president, just short of a first-round victory for Lula. The fact that poll numbers are mostly unchanged suggests that a race polarized between Bolsonaro and Lula continues. During the debate, Lula seemed to recognize that the logic of a run-off—appealing directly to opponents in order to mount a winning coalition—is already applicable by speaking in friendly terms about Tebet and Gomes. Bolsonaro, utterly friendless on stage, is largely stuck playing defense. He has yet to show he can expand his support beyond a core base of true believers.

Highlights

• BTG/FSB POLL. According to a poll by BTG/FSB released on Monday, August 29, the candidates’ interviews with Jornal Nacional did little to change the trajectory of the upcoming October elections. Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party was shown with 43% of intended votes, a 2% decrease from a poll conducted before the interview. The incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro, remains stable with 36% of intended votes. Ciro Gomes of the Democratic Labor Party was shown with 9%, a 3% decrease from the last poll, and Simone Tebet of the Brazilian Democratic Movement with 4%, a 1% increase from the last poll.

• THE U.S. POSITION ON THE BRAZILIAN ELECTIONS. Earlier this summer, U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders met with Brazilian civil society leaders who warned against the threat of a Bolsonaro coup in the upcoming elections. Such fears prompted Sanders to draft a Congressional resolution declaring that the United States will immediately recognize the election outcome that international monitors deem free and fair. If passed by the Senate, the bill would make sure that the U.S. viewed the possible undemocratic transfer of power in Brazil as an unacceptable outcome by reevaluating its relationship with its southern neighbor and suspending all financial and military aid to Brazil. Sanders’s office confirms that the resolution is backed by some prominent foreign policy-focused Senate Democrats, including Tim Kaine (Va.), Patrick J. Leahy (Vt.), and Jeff Merkley (Ore.).

• PHONES IN THE VOTING BOOTHS? Last Thursday, August 25, the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) unanimously decided to prohibit voters from entering voting booths with a cell phone as a means of guaranteeing the secrecy of every vote and mitigating the risk of corruption and voter intimidation. “There is a concern about coercion in the exercise of voting, that is, militias demanding that the person goes with a cell phone to record their vote,” said Alexandre de Moraes. In light of Bolsonaro’s recent attacks on Brazil’s electronic voting system, the TSE also stated that the ban will work to prevent fraud and the spread of misinformation, such as edited videos and photos of electronic voting machines. The penalty for violating or attempting to violate this new law can be up to two years in prison.

• EURASIA GROUP PREDICTIONS. During an event in São Paulo held by Neoway and its parent company B3 on Tuesday, August 30, Christopher Garman, the Managing Director for the Americas at Eurasia Group, indicated that former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party has a 65% chance of winning the elections in October, while President Jair Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party has a 35% chance of being reelected. According to the consultancy's projection, the gap between the two candidates should decrease due to the improvements in the country’s economy spearheaded by Bolsonaro’s administration, such as decreasing unemployment and increasing social benefits through Auxílio Brasil. Also, according to the consultancy's data, a third-way candidate has less than a 5% chance of winning the elections.

Feature Article

Brazilian Confidence in Democracy Improves in an Election where Feelings will be Decisive

By Leonardo Avritzer and Lucio Rennó

The fifth edition of the survey, “The Face of Democracy,” (A cara da Democracia), which was carried out by the Instituto da Democracia (INCT/ITDC) this year, brings good news for the country: the number of Brazilians who would not accept a coup d’état increased. For 59% of respondents, democracy is preferable to any other form of government. And, above all, there is a majority of Brazilians who do not accept that, even in a scenario of serious corruption or increased crime, a coup or military intervention is justifiable. That is, Brazilians want to solve their problems in a democratic environment with the instruments provided by democracy.

These results were analyzed in comparison with data obtained in 2018, when the first survey was carried out. That year, about seven months before the presidential elections, the INCT found a very relevant piece of data that caught the country's attention and was highlighted in several newspapers. The survey showed that Brazilians relativized their support for democracy, and the importance of this opinion can be seen today, four years after that first survey. In just a few years, the relativization of support for democracy has cost the country more violence, more intolerance, and more distrust of democratic institutions.

In this 2022 edition, the survey “The Face of Democracy” shows a more positive scenario. However, despite the important advances that the research presented in relation to support for democracy in Brazil, there are data that need to be observed very carefully, as they point in the opposite direction. Among these data, the most worrying is the one that shows an enormous growth in Brazil of the extreme right, especially in the last two years.

In 2018, the survey showed an increase in the number of Brazilians who declared themselves to be right-wing. This percentage was then 9% of the population. The data observed by the research at the time undoubtedly represented the end of the phenomenon commonly called the “ashamed right,” that is, part of Brazilians was no longer ashamed to assume an political identity associated with a rightwing agenda. The negative connotation of being linked to this political perspective was no longer a cause for discomfort or concern.

In 2022, the survey reveals something even more disturbing, namely, the increase in the number of Brazilians who declare themselves to be the extreme far-right, as shown in the table below

This finding, obtained from the research, points towards a relative success of Bolsonarism in influencing the formation of an extreme right-wing movement in Brazil, an influence that remains despite the poor performance of the Bolsonaro government in areas such as health, education, and the environment. Therefore, regardless of the disaster with regard to the exercise of government, as indicated by several surveys, Bolsonarismo managed to achieve one of its objectives: to form an extreme right-wing base that will influence Brazilian politics for the foreseeable future.

But the research also showed that Brazilians have extremely unfavorable feelings towards President Jair Bolsonaro and express empathy towards former President Lula.

The survey “The Face of Democracy” explored what emotions the two main presidential candidates mobilize in the population and examined their main personal attributes. The data show candidate Lula predominantly evaluated positively, mainly on issues that touch on compassion and solidarity, and candidate Bolsonaro mostly associated with negative feelings.

Lula is seen as more hardworking, smarter, more competent than Bolsonaro. But when it comes to the issue of solidarity, Lula wins by rout: 65% of Brazilians attribute this characteristic to Lula, while 34% associate it with Bolsonaro.

Lula is also seen as more trustworthy than Bolsonaro: 41% to 31%. When it comes to honesty, a field in which Bolsonaro prides himself on being different, there is a technical tie: 35% think that way about him and 34% about Lula.

In other words, Lula is attributed more positive personal characteristics than Bolsonaro, but when it comes to solidarity, the victory is overwhelming.

In addition to personal characteristics, the survey also asked what feelings voters express toward candidates. Lula mobilizes positive feelings such as happiness (42%) and hope (54%), higher rates than negative feelings such as frustration (34%), anguish (17%), bitterness (15%), contempt (19%), resentment (23%), fear (21%) or hatred (7%). Bolsonaro is mainly associated with negative feelings: frustration (42%), anguish (32%), bitterness (29%), contempt (34%), resentment (30%), fear (37%) and hatred (21%). For just 26% of respondents, Bolsonaro represents happiness and for 35% hope. Notice, these are also expressive positive numbers, which go back to its loyal base of supporters.

The 2022 election campaign will explore these contradictory trends. Brazilians are beginning to understand the importance of resolving their differences democratically, but a sector of the extreme right despises democracy and has become a major anti-democratic factor. However, Bolsonaro’s actions arouse the fear and contempt of Brazilians.

____________________________________________

Leonardo Avritzer holds a PhD in Political Sociology from the New School for Social Research (1993) and did postdoctoral work at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1998-1999 and 2003. He is currently a professor at the Department of Political Science at the Federal University of Minas Gerais and coordinator of the Institute for Democracy and Democratization of Communication (INCT IDDC).

Lucio Rennó is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Brasilia. He is currently Dean of Graduate Studies and was the Director of the Political Science Institute in 2020 and 2021. Previously he was the President of the Federal District Planning Company of the Federal District government. He has co-authored Persuasive Peers: Social Communication and Voting in Latin America ​​(2020) and has published articles in several peer-reviewed journals.

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.