Fev 13 2026| Nº. 193

Editorial

New polling this week indicated a tightening race ahead of the official start of the 2026 presidential campaign. A Genial/Quaest survey released on Wednesday, February 11 showed President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading all first and second-round scenarios. However, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the former president’s eldest son, is narrowing the gap in a potential run-off against the incumbent. For many analysts, this dynamic has reinforced the perception that Bolsonaro is consolidating the right-wing electorate more effectively than other potential challengers, setting up another highly polarized contest between Lula and a candidate of the far right. The data also highlight enduring volatility among undecided and swing voters, suggesting that although Lula remains the frontrunner, the race is entering a more competitive phase.

The widespread belief in the progressive camp has sharpened attention on Lula’s own coalition management, particularly surrounding his vice-presidential slot. Reports that the president had at least entertained the possibility of replacing Vice President Geraldo Alckmin on the 2026 ticket with someone from a larger party like the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB). This prompted a swift and coordinated defense this week from Alckmin’s party, the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB). After meeting with Lula in Brasília, João Campos — PSB president and mayor of Recife — publicly affirmed Alckmin’s continued place on the ticket, framing the partnership as strategically sound and politically stabilizing. Campos and others pointed out that the MDB was the party that occupied the vice-presidency under President Dilma Rousseff and betrayed her during the 2016 impeachment process. While no formal change has been announced, the episode underscores the delicate balancing act facing Lula as he weighs the benefits of continuity against potential advantages of trying to expand his coalition further, especially if tightening polls increase pressure for a campaign shake-up.

Meanwhile, the outgoing minister of finance Fernando Haddad used public appearances this week to outline elements that could shape the policy architecture of a potential fourth Lula term. Speaking on Tuesday, February 10 at BTG Pactual’s CEO Conference in São Paulo, Haddad addressed ongoing fallout from the Banco Master case in which irregular credit operations worth billions exposed gaps in oversight mechanisms and raised concerns about potential government liabilities. He argued that the episode demonstrated the need for regulatory adjustments while crediting authorities for acting to mitigate systemic risks. In the same talk, Haddad defended the construction of a “new architecture” for social benefits in the near future, signaling that Brazil may move toward streamlining and rationalizing its array of assistance programs to align fiscal discipline with social inclusion. Taken together, the remarks offered a concise preview of how financial oversight reform and social policy redesign could be paired in a forward-looking economic agenda under a fourth Lula government.

Highlights

• Supreme suspicion. Supreme Court Justice Dias Toffoli – appointed to the highest court in the country in 2009 by Lula – had to explain this week his connections with Daniel Vorcaro, the central figure in a scandal that has been electrifying the news for weeks, with enormous potential for damage to several important political actors in Brazil. Banker Vorcaro was arrested by the Federal Police for a series of crimes in the management of Banco Master. One of the investment funds that was part of Master's investor network, Arleen, bought shares in a hotel called Tayayá, which was owned by a Maridt, a company in which Toffoli had a stake. Critics of the justice see this episode as an unacceptable connection with possible criminal implications. Toffoli himself argues, however, that this connection is distant, impersonal, and predates the revelation of the illegal activities linked to Vorcaro and his bank. On Thursday (12), he was removed from reporting on the case.

• World of work. The Speaker of the Chamber of Deputies, Hugo Motta, forwarded this Monday, February 9 to the Constitution and Justice Committee the Proposed Constitutional Amendment that would end in Brazil a work schedule known as 6x1, in which the employee works six days to have one day off. The proposal has divided the Brazilian political world and should influence the debates linked to this year's presidential campaign. Economists from the Getúlio Vargas Foundation estimate a 2.6% drop in Gross Domestic Product if the measure is approved. But workers' organizations have argued that it will improve the quality of life. There are two proposals being considered in the Chamber of Deputies on the same subject. To become law, they need to pass through several committees, in addition to being approved in the Chamber and the Senate. Because it is an amendment to the Constitution, presidential approval is not required.

• Coup plotters. The Rome Court of Appeal began hearing on Wednesday, February 11 the request made by the Brazilian government for Italy to extradite Carla Zambelli, one of the leading figures of the Brazilian far-right, who fled the country after being convicted of hiring a hacker who broke into the computer systems of the judiciary with the intention of falsifying documents. The decision is not yet final, since regardless of the outcome, the parties can still appeal to the court of that revokes political rights. The case is expected to continue to mobilize the attention of a public opinion attentive to the fate of Bolsonaro supporters involved in the failed coup d'état of 2023 and other events that disrupted democratic institutions at the time.

2026 Election Observatory

International Roundup. Flávio Bolsonaro, the far-right pre-candidate for the presidency in the October elections, was in Paris this week, where he gave at least two important interviews to conservative media outlets (Le Figaro and CNews), in which he harshly criticized President Lula and praised his own father, who is imprisoned for a failed coup attempt. Previously, Flávio had made similar statements during a visit to Israel. This articulation indicates the weight of international issues in this year's presidential campaign.

Lula and Trump. President Lula, who has already announced his intention to run for re-election in October, also touched on important international issues this week. During a visit to São Paulo, he said that the U.S. president, Donald Trump, should not provoke Brazil because he, Lula, has the "blood of Lampião" (a notorious Brazilian bandit). The statement, made in a jocular tone, refers to a famous bandit from Northeast Brazil, killed by government forces in 1938, who became an important figure in Brazilian popular culture.

Carnival. The Acadêmicos de Niterói samba school in Rio de Janeiro chose to pay homage to President Lula in its parade this year. The opposition argues that the event constitutes early election campaigning, which would violate the rules imposed by the Electoral Court. Experts consulted by media outlets say that Lula's candidacy may face challenges in the future because of this event, and even a possible victory for Lula could be questioned in the future, based on the judgment of the case.

News from ABO and social organizations and movements:

Fellows. The WBO (Washington Brazil Office), the US partner of the Brazil Office Alliance, has completed the selection of its new research associates. The fourtheen research fellows will work throughout the year on three main issues: Brazil-United States relations, Brazil-Europe relations and internationalization, and Environmental Defense of the Cerrado and Caatinga. The selected individuals have already been contacted by the WBO, which will soon release soon more information about the fellows.

Cerrado and Caatinga. The president of the National Council of Traditional Peoples and Communities (CNPCT), Samuel Caetano, along with representatives of the Cerrado Network and ISPN, met this Tuesday, February 10 with Guilherme Boulos, the Minister of the General Secretariat of the Presidency of the Republic, to request speed in the approval of the Decree on Land Regularization of Territories of Traditional Peoples and Communities. The measure, currently under interministerial review, seeks to establish criteria for the allocation and protection of these territories, strengthening the legal security of communities that play a central role in the conservation of the Cerrado and Caatinga biomes, that are strategic for regional and global climate stability, historically invisible and subjected to increasing environmental pressures.

New magazine. The Pact for Democracy, a coalition of 200 civil society organizations, launched the magazine Entretanto this week. The publication aims to "expand the production and circulation of critical reflections, bringing together academics and specialists with recognized national and international experience." The first edition features interviews and analyses of key figures in contemporary democratic debate. Click here to read.

Feature Article

2026: The World of Work on the International Agenda

By Fernanda Caldas Giorgi*
and Felipe Gomes da Silva Vasconcellos**

The beginning of the year is a propitious time for planning. At the Observatory on International Labor and Social Rights (ODTI), it couldn't be any different. Always driven by the purpose of promoting knowledge and information exchange about the world of work, we decided to explore what is on the international agenda for 2026 to refine our monitoring of pressing issues and our advocacy efforts.

Our list was compiled based on pre-established values ​​and objectives, which can be summarized in the concept of the Human Right to decent and inclusive work, which is undeniably affected by technological advances and changes in the production system. It is, therefore, a snapshot of reality. As in every choice it implies the recognition that our outlook can be criticized and even improved. This is especially the case in times like these, when we witness the world in turmoil, constantly breaking with the paradigms of human and international relations.

Hence, we have taken the initiative to share our perception with you, the reader. It is an invitation to dialogue and, ultimately, to action, with active listening and a strong willingness to discuss the priorities of the world of work in 2026. Let's go.

The main themes of the world of work that will be on the international agenda in 2026 are:

1. Regulation of work in the platform economy;

2. Addressing informality;

3. Reduction of working hours;

4. Strengthening social dialogue and collective bargaining;

5. Mental health of workers;

6. Gender equality in the workplace;

7. Artificial intelligence;

8. Work and the environment, including just transition, health and safety, and sustainability;

9. Strikes under international labor standards.

1 Regulation of Labor in the Platform Economy

The growth of digital platforms, such as transportation and delivery apps, and the expansion of this business model to other economic sectors implies a labor scenario lacking adequate regulations. There is an initial debate about the classification of those who provide services mediated by digital platforms: are they employees or self-employed? This results in controversies regarding both the basic rights of these individuals and the responsibility of digital platforms towards them. Essentially, the issue raises concerns about precarious and exploitative labor, as well as the health and safety of society. After all, it affects not only those providing the services, but also the user population and public health facilities.

This novelty and controversy are the subject of nascent national legislation, whose content is not homogeneous and, therefore, does not allow for the prediction of a future trend. Sensitive to this phenomenon, the International Labour Organization (ILO) has placed the issue on the agenda with a view to developing an international labor standard, which should be finalized at the 114th International Labour Conference to be held in Geneva in June 2026. The ILO's tripartite structure, which includes social actors in the world of work from 187 countries, reinforces the relevance of this debate and its potential to guide the global regulation of this phenomenon, based on human dignity and social justice.

2 Addressing Informality

Following the discussions on the regulation of work in the platform economy, there is a global concern about addressing informality, which, according to a survey by the ILO, affects 60% of the global workforce. In 2025, the 113th International Labour Conference adopted a Resolution that focused on the transition from informality to formality, requesting the ILO office to develop a global roadmap aimed at expanding social protection and improving working conditions for informal sectors.

The centrality of this issue stems, in addition to the continuity of the work initiated at the 113th ILO Conference, from its intersection with several crucial themes for the world of work, such as the quality of work offered (stagnation of decent work); low productivity; poverty; gender inequality; and the impacts of artificial intelligence.

3 Reduction of working hours

Concern about the excessive number of working hours and the consequent risks to the health and safety of workers predates the creation of the ILO itself in 1919. Efforts to limit working hours are, therefore, centuries old, marked by national and international battles.

Within the ILO, the idea of ​​controlling working and rest hours was adopted in the Preamble to its Constitution and later folded into several specific norms: C1 Convention on Working Hours (industry), 1919; C30 Convention on working hours (commerce and workshops), 1930; C47 Convention on forty hours, 1935; R116 Recommendation on reducing working hours, 1962; C14 Convention on weekly rest (industry), 1921; C106 Convention on weekly rest (commerce and workshops), 1957; C132 Convention on paid vacations (revised), 1970; C171 Convention on night work, 1990; C175 Convention on part-time work, 1994; R165 Recommendation on workers with family responsibilities, 1981; and Tripartite declaration of principles regarding multinational companies and social policy.

Among the international labor standards listed above, it is worth highlighting Recommendation No. 116 of 1962, which proposes that member countries assess the possibility of reducing the working week to 40 hours, in order to safeguard health and safety at work and to balance family, personal, and work time.

Despite the topic's long history, the debates are ongoing. The idea of ​​continuing to reduce working hours, especially to four days a week (32-36 hours) without a pay cut, is a growing trend worldwide, driven by increased productivity, the use of technology, and a focus on post-pandemic mental health. Countries such as Iceland, France, the United Kingdom, and Japan have already tested the model, with pilot experiences showing maintained or increased productivity, as well as greater worker satisfaction.

The issue, however, is not settled, weighing improved quality of life and mental health, reduced absenteeism, and increased productivity per hour worked against increased operational costs and difficulties in adapting in specific sectors. Local discussions and experiences continue, putting pressure on the international community to take a position.

4 Strengthening Social Dialogue and Collective Bargaining

Social dialogue and collective bargaining form the framework of fundamental labor principles, having been enshrined in international norms as cornerstones of strong and democratic labor relations. They are a crucial tool for achieving social justice, contributing not only to reducing inequalities but also to fostering inclusive and sustainable economic growth. Their usefulness is reinforced in times of crisis, when resilience is required to face economic and social challenges, as illustrated by data relating to the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 health crisis.

There is growing support in the international community for the promotion of social dialogue and collective bargaining, as evidenced by declarations, commitments, and studies from organizations such as the G7, the G20, the OECD, and the World Bank.

In 2023, the ILO Governing Body designed an integrated strategy for promoting and implementing the right to collective bargaining, which included the following measures:

• Increasing the coherence and effectiveness of ILO action on collective bargaining;

• Strengthening the capacity to formulate coherent policies in the multilateral system;

• Supporting legal reforms through technical assistance to governments and workers' and employers' organizations;

• Capacity building for public authorities and institutions to promote collective bargaining;

• Developing evidence-based studies on the benefits of collective bargaining;

• Expanding quantitative and qualitative databases related to labor relations;

• Integrating the right to collective bargaining into the activities of the multilateral system to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.

This strategy is being monitored, and progress reports are submitted to the Governing Body annually. In 2026, the recurring debate on social dialogue at the International Labour Conference will provide further guidance to refine the strategy.

5 Mental Health of Workers

Prioritizing mental health on the international labor agenda for 2026 is crucial due to its impact on worker productivity and, consequently, on overall economic performance. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that depression and anxiety disorders cost the global economy approximately US$1 trillion per year in lost productivity. Therefore, integrating mental health initiatives into labor policies means not only improving the well-being of workers but also mitigating substantial economic losses. For this reason, the WHO affirms that mental health is a fundamental human right and an essential factor for sustainable development.

The ILO, in turn, emphasizes the need to address workplace stress and mental health challenges, especially after the COVID-19 pandemic. (Studies indicate that the health crisis intensified mental health problems among the working class). The ILO advocates that safe and healthy work environments encompass mental well-being and, therefore, proposes the adoption of measures that include stress management, addressing violence, and establishing support systems. Addressing mental health is essential for establishing healthy workplaces, reducing absenteeism, and motivating and engaging workers.

Prioritizing mental health aligns with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly Goal 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and Goal 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth). The ILO explicitly connects social protection and decent work to improved mental health outcomes, indicating that inclusive and supportive labor practices are fundamental to achieving broader health goals. Strengthening mental health support can help vulnerable populations, including those in precarious employment, thus promoting equity and social justice in the labor market.

Promoting a culture of dialogue and collaboration around mental health can increase social cohesion in workplaces and forge a resilient working class capable of thriving in a constantly evolving global landscape (technological advances and new production models). The ILO and WHO advocate for tripartite cooperation between governments, employers, and workers to effectively address mental health challenges through capacity building, awareness-raising, and early intervention.

6 Gender Equality at Work

Gender equality is also on the agenda of the 114th International Labour Conference (ILC), specifically addressing persistent disparities between men and women in the workplace, the gender pay gap, the (de)valuation of care work, and the need for a transformative, inclusive, and human-centered approach to work. Including this theme in the 2026 Conference is essential to accelerating progress towards SDGs 5 and 8, reducing violence, and guaranteeing women's rights in the growing platform economy.

Recognizing the slow progress and persistence of gender inequalities is indispensable for rethinking the status quo and consequently adopting new strategies aimed at equity in the world of work.

Gender equality is a fundamental human right essential for economic growth, productivity, and social justice, and, therefore, the international commitment to this agenda needs to be constantly renewed and reinforced. In this sense, its inclusion on the agenda of the 114th ILO Conference is aligned with the ILO's Strategic Plan 2026-2029, which seeks to “develop legal, political and institutional frameworks focused on equality and inclusion; strengthen the representation of women in decision-making processes; improve care services, infrastructure and working conditions for care professionals; reduce the gender pay gap; and end violence and harassment in the world of work.”

7 Artificial Intelligence and the World of Work

The incorporation of artificial intelligence (AI) and algorithmic systems into the world of work constitutes one of the central phenomena of the current phase of capitalist transformation, marked by digitalization, advanced automation, and the intensification of data use.

AI is not limited to the mechanization of repetitive tasks, but can reach cognitive, decision-making and supervisory activities, which tends to produce profound impacts on employment, work organization, and collective relations.

The protection of personal data and algorithmic governance play a central role in this context, given the massive and continuous collection of information about workers, including behavioral and biometric data. The legal protection of AI-mediated work demands clear limits on data processing, as well as guarantees of transparency, contestation, and human supervision of automated decisions that affect access to employment, job security, and working conditions.

Collective bargaining will continue to be an important instrument for the democratic control of the use of technologies in the workplace. Union action allows for the establishment of limits to automation, the demand for algorithmic transparency, and the protection of fundamental rights, articulating technological innovation and social justice.

8 Climate Change and Labor Relations

Climate change and the work environment should remain on the international labor agenda in 2026, with the institutional developments of the Belém Action Mechanism (BAM), approved at COP30, on the one hand, and the impacts of extreme weather events, on the other.

The incorporation of the labor dimension and the international trade union movement into the global climate governance foreseen in the BAM is a relevant turning point for the protection of decent work and the promotion of social justice in the context of the ecological transition.

In turn, the intensification of the effects of climate change on the world of work, particularly heat stress, extreme weather events, and forced displacement, poses significant challenges for the trade union movement.

Collective bargaining could be a key instrument this year to ensure a just transition in strategic sectors of the economy, focusing on reducing inequalities, creating decent jobs, and protecting the places where people live.

9 Right to Strike

The right to strike is expected to occupy a central position on the international labor agenda in 2026, especially due to the expectation of an advisory opinion on the subject from the International Court of Justice. The referral of the controversy to the ICJ by the ILO Governing Body in 2023 represents a significant institutional milestone in the historical dispute over the normative scope of freedom of association in relation to the right to strike and the interpretation of ILO Convention No. 87.

The ICJ's pronouncement has the potential to produce significant legal effects, ending a conflict that has partially paralyzed the activities of the Committee on Freedom of Association on this issue since 2012.

This debate gains political weight in a context of intensified conflicts and deepening social inequalities on a global scale. The reconfiguration of capitalism on bases marked by precarious labor conditions, digital platform companies, and the weakening of trade union organizations and collective bargaining has led to an increase in mobilizations and strikes.

In this scenario, the right to strike reappears not only as a classic instrument of collective action, but also as a mechanism for containing structural power asymmetries, which tends to once again place it at the center of discussions about democracy, social justice, and the effectiveness of human rights.

*Fernanda Caldas Giorgi is a Partner at LBS Advogadas e Advogados and Director of the Instituto Lavoro. She is a specialist in Labor Human Rights and Transnational Labor Law from the University of Castilla-La Mancha.

**Felipe Gomes da Silva Vasconcellos is a Partner at LBS Advogadas e Advogados and a member of the Instituto Lavoro. He holds a Masters  in Labor Law and Social Security from the University of São Paulo, a Masters cum laude in International and European Human Rights Law from Leiden University, and is a specialist in Labor Human Rights, Transnational Companies and Due Diligence from the University of Castilla-La Mancha. In addition, he is professor of graduate studies at Mackenzie Presbyterian University and visiting professor in the international postgraduate program at the University of San Carlos of Guatemala.

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.