Ago 23 2024 | Nº. 131

Editorial

Members of all three branches of government met in Brasília this week to settle a dispute over transparency and public spending. Last week the Brazilian Supreme Court unanimously ordered that spending amendments passed with very little oversight be suspended until the legislature issued new rules regarding transparency. Many members of Congress, particularly those who are not in ideological alignment with the administration of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, interpreted the move as an encroachment on their power, which grew enormously under former President Jair Bolsonaro. On Tuesday, August 20, Luis Roberto Barroso, the current chief justice of the Supreme Federal Court; Arthur Lira and Rodrigo Pacheco, the respective heads of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate; and members of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s presidential administration issued a joint declaration declaring that new rules would be adopted going forward. According to a joint statement, “consensus was reached that parliamentary amendments must adhere to criteria of transparency, traceability, and correctness.” Those details are yet to be fleshed out, yet doing so would be a win for accountability in Brazilian government spending.

In the same spirit of institutional harmony, President Lula and leaders from the other branches of government on Wednesday, August 23 signed an agreement for ecological transformation, which includes 26 measures to advance environmental goals. Emphasizing that each branch has a role to in implementing these measures, Lula asserted that the accord demonstrates the strength and maturity of Brazil’s democracy. “As the Brazilian Constitution states, the legislative, executive, and judicial branches, independently and harmoniously, must work together to ensure citizens’ right to a balanced environment,” Lira pointed out in his remarks. According to Folha de S. Paulo, government actions will be organized in three main areas: land use and land tenure planning, energy transition, and sustainable development with social, environmental, and climate justice.

April’s devastating flooding in the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul remains a powerful reminder of the dangers posed by climate change. Lula met this week with Governor Eduardo Leite, the center-right executive who supported Bolsonaro in 2018 before attempting to launch his own presidential run in 2022. Lula has promised extraordinary amounts of federal aid for Leite’s recovering state but has complained publicly about a lack of public appreciation. For his part, Leite pointed out that there has been a slight “disconnect between the support that is announced and the support that is actually being delivered” to his state. "I am not criticizing to attack the government. I criticize so that they can adjust, improve, refine, and deliver to the population what they themselves have promised.” Dealing with climate catastrophe is never easy. How the Lula administration responds in the medium to long-term will be an indelible part of its legacy.

Highlights

• Demography. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics released data on Thursday, August 22 showing that the Brazilian population, currently 210.9 million, is expected to peak at 220.43 million in 2041, before shrinking to 199.2 million in 2070. The data corrects a previous projection that Brazil's population peak would occur seven years later, in 2047. The change in projection takes into account the decrease in the fertility rate. The population will also age in the coming decades, as those over 60, who represented 15.6 percent of the population in 2023, will represent 37.8 percent in 2070.

• Public accounts. Federal tax revenue in Brazil broke a record in July 2024, surpassing the all-time high recorded in 1995. The result is a relief for the Lula government, which is struggling to maintain its surplus. The R$231 billion (US$41.4 billion) collected in July of this year represents a 9.55 percent increase in revenue compared to July of last year. When the first seven months of 2024 are added together, revenue reaches R$1.5 trillion (US$269 billion), a record performance that is 9.15 percent above inflation growth.

• Alexandre de Moraes. This week, the Folha de São Paulo newspaper continued its series of reports by Glenn Greenwald, the American journalist based in Rio de Janeiro, and Fabio Serapião, in which they reveal behind-the-scenes details of judicial decisions taken by Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes against far-right Bolsonaro supporters. The reports are based on cell phone messages leaked to the duo by an anonymous source. The latest texts are gradually bringing information that Moraes acted outside the formal procedure to support some of the lawsuits against bloggers and far-right politicians. Although experts on the subject agree that the case shows actions that may be outside the formal procedure, they disagree, however, on the gravity of the fact. What is concrete so far is the political use that the far-right is making of the series of reports to convey to its audience the message that all of the punishments imposed by Moraes against leading figures in the sector were illegal.

   

• Amnesty for Bolsonaro. At the same time, initiatives in Congress are moving forward to nullify the convictions imposed on Bolsonaro to suspend the ineligibility that prevents him from running for elected office until 2030. In this sense, the Constitution and Justice Committee of the Senate approved this measure on Thursday, August 2, and gave a favorable opinion to a bill that reduces the period of ineligibility for politicians who have been convicted in the second instance. The proposal was authored by Congresswoman Dani Cunha, daughter of Eduardo Cunha, who was Speaker of the Chamber, Brazil’s lower house, and pivotal in the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff before being arrested and declared ineligible to hold office. The Chamber of Deputies has already approved the proposal, which should be voted on soon in a Senate plenary session before being submitted for presidential approval.

• Police violence. The São Paulo Court of Justice has charged two military police officers, Lieutenant Julio Cézar dos Santos and Corporal Maykon Willian da Silva, for the murder of Wellington Gomes da Silva during Operation Escudo in Baixada Santista. With this decision, the number of police officers accused of homicides related to the operation that resulted in 28 deaths rises to eight. The Public Prosecutor's Office claims that the officers simulated a need for assistance to make the investigation more difficult, in addition to failing to record the action with body cameras. The officers have been removed from operational activities while the case remains under judicial secrecy.

News from the WBO, Organizations and Social Movements

Award. Applications for the 2024 edition of the Positive Impact Award are open until September 15. The initiative is a “digital showcase” to “stimulate understanding, recognition, appreciation and promotion of the ecosystem of impact on sustainability and social justice in Brazil.” The projects chosen by popular vote will receive training, mentoring and specialized advice as a prize to increase the reach and capacity of their initiatives. More information at this link.

Racism. UN Special Rapporteur Ashwini K.P. has highlighted the need for bold and transformative action to combat systemic racism that persists in Brazil. The statement was made after a 12-day visit to the country during which Ashwini witnessed the harmful impact of racism on Afro-descendants, Indigenous peoples, quilombolas, and other marginalized groups. The rapporteur pointed out that the efforts being made by the government are still insufficient given endemic racialized violence, social and economic exclusion, environmental racism, and police brutality that mark the lives of these populations. She will present a detailed report on the topic to the UN Human Rights Council in 2025. More information at this link.

Black candidates. The Peregum Black Reference Institute presented an agenda with nine anti-racist proposals to be taken up by the candidates for mayor and city council who will run in the municipal elections at the end of this year. The initiative is also a response to Constitutional Amendment Bill no. 9, which makes it more difficult for Black people to run for office in Brazil. More information at this link.

Social investment. The Institute of Socioeconomic States (INESC) released a report in which it found that federal spending in social and environmental areas was below expectations in 2024. Although some sectors executed the majority of the budget, such as Education and Racial Equality, others, such as programs focused on energy and urban infrastructure, had minimal or no execution. INESC warns that this low budget execution, associated with structural problems and a policy of fiscal austerity, can seriously harm social areas, worsening inequalities and delaying essential services. More information at this link.

Feature Article

Venezuela and the Crossroads of Democracy

By Pedro Telles*

While Nicolás Maduro is hiding the results of the presidential election held on July 28, ignoring repeated calls from dozens of governments to present the data in a format that allows the results to be verified, the evidence of a large victory for his opponent Edmundo González is overwhelming.

The AltaVista Parallel Vote Tabulation, an independent initiative by Venezuelan civil society to estimate the election results endorsed by renowned academics, indicates that González received 66 percent of the vote, compared to 31 percent for Maduro – based on verifiable and statistically representative data collected from ballot boxes in hundreds of polling stations throughout the country.

This result is in line with what is indicated by copies of 83 percent of the electoral records made publicly available by the opposition, recently validated in an independent study by Walter Mebane, a researcher specializing in detecting electoral fraud, who in 2019 confirmed Evo Morales’ victory in Bolivia using a similar methodology. The numbers are also confirmed by analyses of the Associated Press, the Washington Post and the Colombian civil society platform Electoral Observation Mission, and match the exit poll by Edison Research.

The situation places the Brazilian government, as well as civil society organizations and movements that work on the defense of democracy, at a crossroads: whether or not to recognize González’s victory, despite Maduro insisting (contrary to the evidence) that he was victorious? In what way, and in what time frame?

For the government, the situation is not simple. History shows us that successful solutions to situations like Venezuela's are usually negotiated carefully, leading the authoritarian leader in question and/or important allies to accept a transition in power in exchange for guarantees. It is no coincidence that we have gestures such as Colombia proposing an amnesty for Maduro, and Panama offering him asylum to facilitate a democratic transition.

To play the important mediation role that it has assumed in the face of the crisis, and for which it is internationally recognized, the Brazilian government needs to walk a tightrope: on the one hand, indicate that it does not believe Maduro's claims of victory; on the other, maintain open channels of dialogue with the regime to advance negotiations, which requires thoughtful public positions. While other governments on the left and right in the region have already adopted a more forceful discourse, Brazil is trying to lead Maduro into accepting defeat.

However, there is no way to sit on the fence forever. Despite stating that Brazil will not recognize Maduro's victory without the presentation of the results, President Lula and Celso Amorim avoid setting a deadline for this. However, through action (explicit recognition of the existence of electoral fraud and González's victory or explicit validation of Maduro's speech) or through omission (continuing the relationship with the Maduro government without a definitive position on the election), the government will take a position.

The political reality of Venezuela imposes a deadline that is impossible to escape: the end of the current presidential term, on January 9, 2025. By then, a position will be consolidated. And from now until then, the tendency is for violence, repression of protests, and other severe human rights violations to continue escalating, an issue that the Brazilian government still avoids facing head on.

While the diplomatic context makes the situation complex for the government, the reality is quite different for civil society organizations and movements that work on the defense of democracy. There is no room for doubt: the evidence of Maduro’s fraud and González’s victory is overwhelming, as is the evidence of serious crimes and abuses committed by the current regime to remain in power.

Even those who defend the political project of Chavismo have made it clear that Maduro no longer represents it. A group of former ministers of Hugo Chávez and other important figures of the Venezuelan left recently published an open letter repudiating Maduro’s conduct and asking the governments of Brazil, Mexico and Colombia to intercede on behalf of the Venezuelan people. Pepe Mujica, the former president of Uruguay, who defined Chávez in 2014 as “a great friend” who had “extremely supportive gestures” and “left a void that is very difficult to fill,” was categorical about Maduro earlier this year: “You can call him a dictator.”

In addition to being an ethical imperative, Brazilian civil society’s condemnation of Maduro also serves a strategic purpose: to provide the Lula government with reasons and arguments to sustain the careful pressure it has been exerting on the regime in its diplomatic efforts, and the gradual increase in tone it has been adopting in recent weeks.

And both governments and civil society need to keep in mind that this is not an isolated crisis. Authoritarianism is on the rise all over the world, and this can be clearly seen in Latin America. In addition to Maduro in Venezuela, among the most recent movements we have Ortega and Bukele consolidating their positions in Nicaragua and El Salvador, Milei maintaining his popularity in Argentina, and Kast promoting extremism in Chile, in addition to Bolsonarism still thriving in Brazil. This authoritarian wave will only be stopped with firm and coordinated responses from democratic forces.

*Pedro Telles is Director of Programs at Democracy Hub (D-Hub), Professor of Advocacy and Social Change at the School of International Relations of Fundação Getulio Vargas, and Senior Fellow for Social and Economic Equity at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.