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Washington Brazil Office
 

Dec 02 2022 | Nº. 43

Editorial

Dancing on the Transition Tightrope

The transition away from the government of Jair Bolsonaro has been awkward, to say the least. Aside from the continued clamors of die-hard Bolsonaro supporters urging the military to intervene to block the inauguration of President-Elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in January, there are key questions still to be answered about what exactly the new administration will look like. A central tension already emerging, precisely because of its supposed clues about the next four years, is the extent to which Lula is catering to his progressive base as opposed to the more conservative elements of his victorious coalition. The push-and-pull between left and center-right has been the dominant narrative of the various transition working groups so far, but it has also been raised in more subtle, intriguing ways that say more about the state of Brazilian culture and society in this still-polarized moment. 

Journalist Anna Virginia Balloussier, for example, suggested that the music festival being planned for Lula’s inauguration relies too heavily on artists that have long been associated with him, performers like Gilberto Gil, Caetano Veloso, and Pabllo Vittar. “Go to the Brazilian peripheries,” Balloussier wrote Thursday, “whether they made the ‘L’ for Lula or did finger guns in the style of the Jair Bolsonaro fan club, and test how many of these names have real traction there.” Instead, she suggested that the festival being planned by future First Lady Rosângela “Janja” da Silva include acts that are more broadly popular across the political spectrum. “The most popular rhythm today in Brazil is sertanejo,” Balloussier writes, adding that, “at first, it is not a friendly terrain for prospects on the left, given the predilection for bolsonarismo among idols of that musical genre. But one doesn’t have to dig deep to find figures sympathetic to Lula. Lauana Prado, from the front line of the so-called feminejo, has never hidden her contempt for the incumbent, for example.”

The music festival itself, of course, is not nearly as important as the administration over which Lula will eventually preside. On that front, he has remained remarkably noncommittal this week regarding specific names for existing cabinet posts and new ones he plans to create. The concert—the plans for which are not yet finalized, Janja insists—is an early illustration of the type of pressure likely to be brought to bear on Lula during his next stint in office, pressure to temper progressive appeals to his base in favor of the kind of moderation that can supposedly appeal to voters less committed to Lula and his party. This is not a new challenge for Lula and his Workers’ Party. Taking office twenty years ago, Lula also signaled to markets and international investors that his administration had learned the lessons of the 1990s about fighting inflation and creating an attractive climate for international capital. Needless to say, the balancing act Lula is currently attempting has high stakes: decisively turning the page from the disastrous Bolsonaro era while also appealing to enough of the millions of Brazilians who supported the incumbent in the hopes of defusing the anti-democratic sentiment of Bolsonaro’s most fervent supports now and preventing Bolsonaro from posing a viable electoral threat in 2026. 

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Highlights

  • LULA MAY MEET WITH BIDEN IN DECEMBER. Former minister Fernando Haddad said that president-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva might meet with President Joe Biden before taking office on January 1st. According to Haddad, the meeting would take place in the United States before Christmas. According to the former Minister of Education, who is under consideration to take over Lula's Finance Ministry, the president-elect received many international invitation, but but would likely only be able to visit Argentina and possibly the United States.

  • LULA'S DIGITAL POPULARITY SOARS, AND BOLSONARO'S PLUMMETS. The month following his victory, President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had his best performance on social media this year. Lula is opening up an advantage over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro (, who has plummeted on social media since his defeat, according to the Digital Popularity Index (IPD). The indicator, which ranges from 0 to 100, is calculated daily by Quaest and has been published by Folha de São Paulo newspaper since June. Lula reached 84.8, and Bolsonaro scored 51.6 in the most recent measurement on Monday 28. The current curves are favorable for the future president.

  • DEFORESTATION RECORD IN BOLSONARO'S GOVERNMENT. Deforestation in the Amazon during the Bolsonaro government reached the highest percentage in a presidential term since the beginning of satellite measurements by Prodes, a system of the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) that is a reference in data measurement. Data from the institute calculated by the Climate Observatory during the government of Jair Bolsonaro indicates that there was a 59.5% increase in the biome's deforestation rate. "The Bolsonaro regime was a machine for destroying forests. He took over the country with a rate of 7,500 km2 of deforestation in the Amazon and delivered it with 11,500 km2. The only good news from the current government is its end", says Marcio Astrini, executive secretary of the Climate Observatory. Another piece of good news is that Lula's transition team is working to implement effective policies to combat the crime of deforestation. In addition, Lula's emissaries who went to COP27 are negotiating new donations to the Amazon Fund with more countries, such as Switzerland and France.

  • BOLSONARO'S PARTY APPEALS FINE FOR ATTEMPTED COUP. On November 30 ncumbent Jair Bolsonaro's Liberal Party asked the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) to review the fine of R$ 22.9 million applied to the party for questioning the results of more than 279,000 electronic ballot machines through a court action, which only focused on the second round even though the same machines were used to elect member to federal and state legislatures in the first round on October 2. In the TSE decision, Supreme Court Judge Alexandre de Morais ruled that the intention of the Liberal Party was to disturb the electoral process, which the party denied in its appeal of the decision.

  • VICE- PRESIDENT-ELECT ALCKMIN TRIES TO OPEN DIALOGUE WITH PRO-BOLSONARO SECTORS. In addition to coordinating the transition team's work, the Vice President-elect, Geraldo Alckmin (Brazilian Socialist Party), has sought to build bridges with business, religious, and agribusiness leaders who were Bolsonaro's supporters during the election. Recently, Alkmin held meetings with representatives of these segments in São Paulo. The objective is trying to demobilize or divide Bolsonaro's support base in a strategy aligned with Lula and the Workers’ Party.

  • UNITED STATES IN LULA'S INAUGURATION. The US government has not yet disclosed who will be the country's representatives at the inauguration of the President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on January 1st. However, the Americans are already preparing to send a large entourage to Brasília. The country has reserved 200 rooms in a hotel in Brasilia. According to US government sources, the procedure is customary, and there will be two delegations: one to prepare the visit and another accompanying the official representative to the inauguration. The country tends to be represented by a government member, such as Secretary of State Antony Blinken or High Representative for Climate John Kerry. But as the White House has not yet commented, Vice President Kamala Harris or even President Joe Biden may be at Lula's inauguration.

 

Feature Article


Regulating Lobbying Will be Good for the Climate

Measure would enable decisions more in line with public interest in promoting environmental sustainability*

By Maria Dominguez, Flávia Collaço e Renato Morgado 

In low transparency and integrity environments, lobbying can be an instrument of undue influence on public policy. It is no different with those policies necessary to tackle climate change, where lobbying activities may contribute, for example, to the approval of laws and tax subsidies that maintain fossil fuels in our energy matrix or prevent the proper enforcement of environmental legislation, opening space for illegal deforestation and other environmental crimes that cause greenhouse gas emissions.

These two issues - lobbying regulation and climate protection - are now on the Brazilian agenda. The first, because the Brazilian National Congress may soon address PL 4391/2021, a bill presented by the Executive; and the second, due to the expectation that the newly elected government will reverse setbacks in environmental and climate governance promoted in recent years.

In line with this expectation, President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva attended Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, where international leaders were gathered for the UN Conference on Climate Change (COP27). The aim of the meeting was to discuss global efforts to tackle climate change, the most complex and urgent challenge facing humanity (read below more about Mr. Lula’s participation in the COP27).

If we are to stabilize average global warming at up to 1.5°C, as defined in the Paris Agreement, approved in 2015, a drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is needed in coming years. With room to become even more ambitious, Brazil's current commitment, for example, is to reduce its emissions by 50% by 2030 and achieve climate neutrality by 2050.

Despite these efforts to reduce emissions (also called mitigation), we must adapt to the existing effects of climate change, which will be increasingly frequent and intense, such as droughts, floods, heat waves and rising sea levels.

For all this to occur, it is necessary to guarantee a broad set of norms and public policies aligned with tackling climate change, which must be implemented in various sectors, such as forests, agriculture, livestock, energy, transport, urban planning, and infrastructure. Such initiatives must promote profound transformations in the way we produce, consume, transport, use the soil and engage in infrastructure projects in our country and around the world.

With so many expected changes, some of which are already underway, it is natural that different interest groups seek, through lobbying activities, to influence public decisions related to the climate agenda.

Lobbying is a legitimate activity intrinsic to democracy. It allows different sectors of society - businesses, trade unions, non-governmental organizations - to state their preferences to government. It can even improve public policy, given that this interaction allows decision-makers access to information and opinions on a given topic.

There is a problem, however, when lobbying occurs in a low transparency environment devoid of robust integrity mechanisms. In this case, lobbying can lead to decisions geared towards specific interests, often to the detriment of broader public interest. This context also allows such activities to be accompanied by corrupt practices when malicious actors use financial resources and other types of advantages to obtain private gains.

The Climate and Corruption Atlas, recently released by Transparency International Brazil, presents ten cases of corruption affecting mitigation, adaptation, and financing of the Brazilian climate agenda efforts. Many of these cases were enabled by relationships between public and private agents that lacked transparency and integrity.

Regulating lobbying will be good for the climate. Sound regulation and proper implementation have the potential to contribute to the climate agenda by permitting decisions that are more balanced and aligned with the public interest of promoting environmental and climate sustainability, by increasing scrutiny over the relationships between public and private actors, and by reducing opportunities for corruption and undue influence associated with lobbying activities.

In order for these advantages to take place, lobbying regulation in Brazil must be aligned with best practices on the subject, such as those set forth in the recommendations of the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) and in European Union legislation.

This should include, for example, registering the interactions between public agents and representatives of interest groups, with disclosure of who participated, the date of the interaction, interests advocated and documents eventually delivered. Data on these interactions must be updated, in open format and made available through an integrated system, enhancing the use and cross-referencing of information. Finally, regulations should also provide for greater equality in the access of different social actors to decision-makers and to the decision-making process as a whole.

Approval of Bill 4.391/2021, presented to the Brazilian Congress by the Federal Executive, which aims to regulate advocacy of private interests with public agents, is a potential instrument for efforts to tackle climate change. For this to happen, however, it is necessary that the bill contemplates, among others, the best practice described above. Furthermore, given its relevance, the text should not be rushed through without a broad debate with society, as has unfortunately been the practice in the Chamber of Deputies.

Even with the absence of federal regulation, states and municipalities can already contribute by creating their own norms and implementing good practices. However, this is still an incipient effort.

Through the Transparency and Public Governance Index (ITGP), also prepared by Transparency International Brazil, we found that no Brazilian state has a complete regulation of lobbying, although two states (Espírito Santo and Minas Gerais) present norms that provide, in a general and broader way, for the registration and disclosure of interactions between state authorities and representatives of interest groups.

Lobbying regulation will not solve all challenges related to the formulation and implementation of norms and public policies necessary to address the climate crisis. Power relations and different strategies of undue influence will continue to exist. It is, however, a necessary measure, without which we will have difficulty in succeeding in our efforts to overcome this urgent challenge.

*This article was originally published by Jota 


MARIA DOMINGUEZ - Coordinator of the Integrity and Public Governance Program of Transparency International Brazil

FLÁVIA COLLAÇO - Professor at the Federal University of Ceará and lead researcher of the "Climate and Corruption Atlas

RENATO MORGADO - Program Manager of Transparency International Brazil

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Warm Welcome for Lula At The COP27, But Many Challenges Ahead

By International Transparency

Mr. Lula's participation in the COP27 reinforced expectations that Brazil will resume its environmental and climate policy after repeated setbacks under Jair Bolsonaro’s government. It also means the country's return to the global arena, a perception reinforced by Mr. Lula's announcement of the country's intention to host the COP30, in 2025, in one of the Amazonian states. If there is strong international support, the challenges for the revival of the environmental and climate agendas within the country will be tremendous. Mr. Lula will take office in a scenario of growing polarization and with strong opposition precisely in the regions with the highest incidence of environmental crimes, such as deforestation, illegal mining, and illegal logging.

Mr. Lula’s arrival at the COP27 highlighted another challenge that the elected government faces: its commitment to the transparency and anti-corruption agenda. Arguing that the government did not provide funds or a secure means of transportation, the elected president took a ride to Sharm el-Sheik on a private jet owned by a friend and businessman from the health sector who, in the past, confessed participation in a slush funds scheme for an electoral campaign. Mr. Lula and his entourage dismissed criticism regarding the acceptance of ride, a practice that is disseminated in Brazilian politics, but inadmissible in countries that effectively regulate lobbying and conflicts of interest. 

Gifts and hospitality (transport, food, accommodation) received by public agents present serious risks of corruption. Often, just the appearance of an advantage in exchange for these benefits already calls into question the impartiality of important decisions. Brazil still has not regulated the lobbying activity and, as a consequence,  behaviors that should be inadmissible have been normalized. 

For over two decades, lobby regulation bills have been dormant in the National Congress. Recently, legislative proceedings for the “PL do Lobby” (Bill 4391/2021), presented by government, have been rushed through in the Chamber of Deputies, but the bill’s current text still has several problems and gaps.

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.

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