Nov 1st 2024 | Nº. 141

Editorial

Relations between Brazil and Venezuela, which have become strained since the July 28 election that was widely deemed to have been illegitimate, further eroded this week. Coming on the heels of Brazilian efforts to block Venezuela’s admission into the BRICS bloc, on Wednesday, October 30, the president of Venezuela’s National Assembly proposed a vote on formally declaring Celso Amorim, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s primary foreign policy advisor, persona non grata. On Thursday, an official social media post from the Venezuelan government seemed to threaten Lula. The Brazilian government has insisted it does not wish to engage in a public spat with Maduro but that it does not recognize his self-proclaimed victory. 

This week was also defined by volatility regarding the value of the Brazilian real against the US dollar. By Thursday, October 31, the real was trading around R$ 5.76, following a closing of R$ 5.7640 the previous day, which was the highest since March 2021. In yet another attempt to ease market concerns, Finance Minister Fernando Haddad sought to assuage broader uncertainty surrounding Brazil's fiscal policy by insisting that the government remains committed to substantial reductions in federal spending. The government remains broadly popular, but the results of last Sunday’s municipal elections, which saw Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) grow far less than was hoped, make clear that the president must work to shore up his political standing. On the budget, the challenge is how to reconcile the fiscal discipline necessary to attract foreign investment and credibility with a political base that wants the federal government to be taking bolder, more ambitious action. 

Finally, on Thursday, October 31, a judge sentenced two former police officers to long prison terms for the 2018 murder of Marielle Franco, the prominent Rio de Janeiro city councilwoman affiliated with the Party of Socialism and Liberty (PSOL). Ronnie Lessa received a sentence of 78 years and 9 months for firing the weapon, while Élcio de Queiroz was sentenced to 59 years as the driver during the drive-by shooting that also killed Franco’s driver, Anderson Gomes. Their arrests in 2019 and subsequent guilty verdicts have been seen as a significant step toward establishing justice for Franco and Gomes.

Highlights

• Change of command. The last few days have been marked by political maneuvers around the choice of the next president of the Chamber of Deputies. This week, congressman Hugo Motta, from the right-wing Republican Party and from the state of Paraíba, emerged as the strongest bet to succeed the current president, Arthur Lira. Motta is 35 years old and comes from the “Centrão,”(literally, the Big Center) the name given to a large political block without much ideological coherence, that supports both left-wing and right-wing governments. The interest of the “Centrão” is mainly to guarantee access to budget amendments presented by parliamentarians to carry out projects and channel money to their electoral bases in their states and municipalities of origin. Motta has the support of Lira himself, in addition to having the approval of the first, second, and fifth largest political parties in the Chamber, which includes the Workers’ Party of President Lula. The election will only take place in February, but negotiations between politicians and their parties are already in full swing.

• Lula's reelection. A behind-the-scenes report published by journalist Mônica Bergamo, who writes one of the most widely read political columns in Brazil for the Folha de São Paulo newspaper, said this week that “the possibility of Lula not running for reelection in 2026 is already being discussed internally by PT leaders.” One of the conditions imposed by Lula, according to Bergamo, is that his approval and popularity ratings be better than they are today. Currently, 35% of Brazilians consider Lula's administration to be “excellent” or “good.” The government's approval rating is 51%. Lula will be 85 years old at the next presidential election and may prefer to end his political career on a high note rather than risk ending it by losing an election, concludes the columnist, based on behind-the-scenes information. This hypothesis is weighed against the fact that there is other person with Lula's experience and popular appeal to enter this race.

• Car Wash Operation. This week, Supreme Court Justice Gilmar Mendes has thrown out all the convictions against José Dirceu related to the Lava Jato (Car Wash) Operation.. Dirceu was an important leader of the student movement that fought against the military dictatorship (1964-1985) and, later, became a key figure during President Lula's first term as president. In 2016 and 2017, he was found guilty in two trials and received sentences totaling 34 years in prison. Mendes says that Dirceu's trial was tainted by the bias of the Sérgio Moro, the judge in the case. This was the same reason that underpinned the previous decision of the Supreme Court when it overturned the conviction of current President Lula. With the annulment of the convictions, Dirceu regains his political rights and can run for office again. The Attorney General's Office, which opposed the annulment of the sentence, can still appeal, but it is unlikely that it will be able to reverse the decision.

   

• Employment and unemployment. The unemployment rate in Brazil fell from 6.9% to 6.4% when compared to the last two quarters of 2024. The current level is the lowest recorded in this period – between January and September – since 2012. The data is contained in the Continuous National Household Sample Survey conducted  by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. The agency attributes the drop in the unemployment rate to an increase in consumption. In absolute numbers, Brazil had 7.5 million unemployed people between April and June 2024. This number fell to 7 million between July and September of the same year.

News from the WBO, Organizations and Social Movements

New edition. In the new edition of the WBO podcast Brazil Unfiltered, host James N. Green welcomes Erika Robb Larkins, associate professor of Anthropology and the Behner Stiefel Chair of Brazilian Studies and director of the Behner Stiefel Center for Brazilian Studies at California State University, San Diego, to talk about aspects of violence in Brazil. The interviewee is the author of the book The Spectacular Favela: Violence in Modern Brazil, published in 2015 by the University of California Press. Her second book, The Sensation of Security: Private Guards and the Social Order in Brazil was published by Cornell University Press in 2023. Watch and listen to the episode on YouTube.

American elections. The Brazil Unfiltered podcast will air on November 6th from 8pm to 9:30pm (Brasília time) with a live broadcast about the 2024 US elections. In this special edition, produced in partnership with Carta Capital magazine, host James N. Green will be accompanied by three other special guests: André Pagliarini, assistant professor of history at Louisiana State University and editorialist for the WBO weekly University newsletter; Vânia Penha-Lopes, professor of Sociology at Bloomfield College of Montclair State University and associate researcher at the WBO; and Thaís Reis Oliveira, executive editor of Carta Capital. The WBO podcast is traditionally broadcast in English, but in this special edition, it will be in Portuguese. Mark your calendars and follow along via the link.

Event in Rio. The Instituto Novos Paradigmas invites you to a major political demonstration in defense of democracy, equality, and the fight against authoritarianism during the plenary session of the G20 Social, which will take place on November 15 at Pier Mauá/Armazém do Cobra in Rio de Janeiro. The event will be attended by the former Minister of Justice and Education of the Lula administration, Tarso Genro; the former Minister of Human Rights of Uruguay, of the Pepe Mujica administration, Javier Miranda; and representatives of several civil society organizations, including the WBO. Click on the link for more information.

Gender and sexuality. Abeth (Brazilian Association for Trans-Homoculture Studies) is offering a free online course on how to build an academic exchange in the US with a focus on gender and sexuality studies, in partnership with the Gender, Sexuality, and Education Studies Group – Edges at FEUSP and the US Embassy in Brazil. More information is available on the Abeth website.

Fellows. Rafael Ioris, a professor at the University of Denver and a research associate at WBO, gave an interview to Jornal da CBN on Wednesday, October 30, about the scenario of the American elections. Iori highlighted that the result may depend on the mobilization of voters on election day, especially because voting is not obligatory in the United States, which historically favors older and more conservative voters. Listen at the link.

Feature Article

What the 2024 Local Elections Signal for the Future of Politics in Brazil

By Fernando Haddad Moura*

If we were to paint the map of Brazil with the results of the 2024 municipal elections with the same logic that the USA does, red for the Republicans (right wing) and blue for Democrats (left wing), that map would be covered in red. Different from the dual party system present in the United States, Brazil currently has 29 registered parties across the political spectrum, and it is the parties from the center to the right that were dominant and won the majority of the mayors in Brazil's 5,569 municipalities. However, if that red meant blood, then that map would have many dots on it. In the first round of the elections, between August 16th and October 6th, 373 occurrences of violence against candidates or their staff were registered with 100 murder attempts and 10 assassinations, an increase of 130% since the 2020 elections, according to a study by Terra de Direitos and Justiça Global. Now if the color green represented money, that map would be covered with the billions of dollars from parliamentary amendments sent by congressmen to their base and that heavily influenced electoral outcomes.  Characterized by less polarization than in 2022, these elections were still marked by violence, the results of the parliamentary amendments and the consolidation of a block of parties that is increasingly more powerful. 

Let's start with the first topic. Brazil has a history of violence and is ranked one the highest in homicide per capita around the world. The political sphere is no exception. From murder attempts against candidates to violence in televised debates, this election seemed even more violent and saw local disputes get national coverage and swarm social media causing anger and distrust of politicians. In São Paulo, for example, three days before the election, 60% of voters said they had chosen their candidates for the lack of a better option. The Supreme Electoral Court is debating how to face this escalation of violence but still faces huge challenges in upcoming elections.

Another factor that had a tremendous influence were the parliamentary amendments, a system allowing Brazilian congress members to direct federal resources to specific municipalities. Since additional forms of amendments were created in 2021, more than US$ 14 billion has been distributed across Brazil. According to a study by Folha de São Paulo, mayors who received more than three times the national median amount of these amendments per voter achieved a 92% re-election rate. This trend indicates that access to federal funds is a powerful tool for political advantage, as these boosted mayors consistently saw re-election rates up to 20 percentage points higher than those who received less than the median and underscores the growing impact of federal resources on local election outcomes, reshaping political dynamics at the municipal level.

Most recently some journalists and political scientists have been observing the consolidation of a group of parties called the G7, a bloc formed by the seven most powerful political parties in the country: the Social Democratic Party (PSD), Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), Liberal Party (PL), Republicans, Workers Party (PT), Unity Brazil (União), and the Progressive Party (PP). Even before the 2024 elections, it was clear how influential these parties had become — they hold 80% of the seats in Congress and control 70% of the federally funded Campaign Fund. Excluding the only left-wing party of the block, Lula's Workers’ Party (PT), in the second run off of the municipal elections, this group, together, elected 4,019 mayors, which accounts for 72% of the 5,569 municipalities. Notably, the three left/center-left parties with the most elected mayors — Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB) with 309, Workers’ Party (PT) with 252, and the Democratic Labor Party (PDT) with 150 — combined for a total of 711 mayors, or 13% of the national total. In the legislative branch, the group increased the number of city councilors by 19% from 2020 to 2024, reaching a total of 36,792 councilors, which represents 63% of municipal legislators. These results show three things:  the consolidation of power into less political parties; the dominance of the center-right, right, and extreme right in Brazilian politics; and how well-positioned these parties and their representatives will be in the 2026 national elections.

With the end of this election, Brazil's political eyes look toward the election of the president of the House of Representatives and the Senate. Projected to take place in February, the 513 federal Congressmen will choose what many would say is the second most powerful position of the Republic. 

The current president of House, Arthur Lira (Progressive Party, PP) from Alagoas, who maintains a very turbulent relationship with the Lula government, after facing challenges in choosing his successor, declared this week his support for Hugo Mota (Republicans) from Paraíba.

The question now is whether Lula will have the political ability and capital to help elect someone who can work in better harmony with him, or will the right and center parties use their leverage and force to withhold all their power, keeping the federal government on its knees?  Regardless of who wins, February marks the beginning of this process, which will answer a bigger question: who are the candidates that these powerful political parties will choose to complete against President Lula who will likely run for a fourth term in 2026? The answer will surely come from those who have gained an immense amount of power in the Senate, the House, and now in thousands of municipalities.

*Fernando Haddad Moura is currently the Executive Director of Legisla Brazil and holds a Master’s in Public Administration from Columbia University

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.