Editorial

A More Level Playing Field

The official launch of the presidential campaign is still about four months away, but the pace of preparations is slowly ramping up among those who would challenge both former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and the incumber Jair Bolsonaro. Sergio Moro, the former judge who served as Bolsonaro’s minister of justice, has left the race and joined the rightwing União Brasil (Brazil Union) unwilling to support his presidential ambitions. He will likely play a much smaller role than initially expected this year. The Party of Brazilian Social Democracy (PSDB), once the main national counterweight to Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT), does not seem capable of mounting a serious bid given many internal divisions. This realization is fueling all kinds of chatter about alliances that may or may not ever see the light of day. The instability—or, perhaps more accurately, chaos—in the center-right has served to underscore the consolidation of Lula’s candidacy as well as Bolsonaro’s.

Indeed, there is reason to believe that the increasingly frantic maneuvering among center-right candidates will, in the end, benefit Bolsonaro. In 2018, conservative voters who supported more moderate right-wing candidates like former São Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin flocked to Bolsonaro to block a PT resurgence. Senator Randolfe Rodrigues, a member of Rede Sustentabilidade, the political party founded by Marina Silva in 2013, worries that a similar dynamic could happen again. Rodrigues, who joined Lula’s campaign team at the former president’s invitation, is particularly concerned about a close vote in the second round. “A tighter election will be difficult for Jair Bolsonaro to recognize,” he noted in a recent interview. “With the non-recognition of a close result, we could see challenges to democracy beyond what we imagine.” Rodrigues will urge Lula to be as ecumenical as possible in putting together his electoral coalition. “Lula's candidacy cannot be just for the PT or the left,” he asserted, “it has to be a candidacy of national unity. Lula has to be what Nelson Mandela was to South Africa after apartheid." The PT strategy, in other words, will be to downplay the partisan associations Lula has long evoked since he helped create the PT some forty years ago. 

Elements of this strategy—marketing, talking points, and jingles—are within the PT’s control, but so much of the campaign will unfold beyond the party’s reach. Fake news, for example, was a major problem for which the PT had no answer in 2018. This time, social networks themselves are showing a willingness to take preventative measures to avoid a repeat of four years ago. Twitter has announced a new set of tools specifically for the Brazilian electoral campaign. As reported in Folha de São Paulo, “the platform will use tags to identify candidate profiles, adopt a new policy to protect debate over the campaign and curate tweets with reliable information on the site’s ‘Moments’ section, with a special division on the elections.” The site already enables users to flag false or misleading information. Among other things, this should encourage users to think critically about what they are seeing on their feeds. WhatsApp and Telegram have also agreed to abide by stricter new standards this time. Reigning in the ability of social media sites to disseminate fake news puts Bolsonaro at a disadvantage. After all, this was a major component of his victory in 2018. Then again, Bolsonaro is the incumbent in a country where no president running for reelection has lost since it became legal for the chief executive to pursue a second term. The terrain is being leveled but a bitter fight still lies ahead.

Highlights

• LATEST POLLS: The latest poll by Instituto IPESPE shows Lula at 44%, Bolsonaro at 30%, Ciro at 9%, Doria at 3%, Janones at 1%, 9% for none and 3% undecided. This was the first survey released without Sergio Moro, the former judge who served as Bolsonaro’s Minister of Justice. Moro quit the race after failing to grow in the polls and following internal disputes with his party. For the second round, the polls show Lula at 53% and Bolsonaro at 33% of the votes.

• MORO’S INHERITANCE: Moro’s departure from the presidential race benefited President Jair Bolsonaro. The IPESPE survey, excluding Moro, shows a four-point uptick for the incumbent. This indicates that both candidates shared the same anti-PT conservative right-wing base. Ciro Gomes also benefited from the departure of Sergio Moro, gaining two points in the poll, suggesting that a smaller subset of Moro voters is committed to backing someone other than Lula or Bolsonaro.

• DISAPPROVAL RATING OF THE BOLSONARO ADMINISTRATION: The IPESPE survey shows that Bolsonaro's administration is considered “bad” or “terrible” by 54% of Brazilians, while 29% of voters consider his administration “great” or “good.” In the previous poll, only 26% approved of the administration.

• CENTER-RIGHT THIRD-WAY: The parties that are not with Bolsonaro or Lula, such as the PSDB, MDB, Cidadania, Podemos, and União Brasil, continue to discuss efforts to unite behind a single presidential ticket. There is speculation, for example, about an alliance between Senator Simone Tebet (MDB) and former Rio Grande do Sul governor Eduardo Leite (PSDB) as vice president. There are also indications that the center-left PDT, which will again nominate Ciro Gomes, is in talks with Luciano Bivar (União Brasil) about being the vice presidential candidate on the ticket.

• CIRO COURTES THE PSD: The PSD, chaired by former São Paulo mayor Gilberto Kassab, has been coveted by Ciro Gomes's PDT. Ciro has mentioned the possibility of a PSD candidate serving as his running mate, with Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco, a likely suitor should the alliance bear fruit. The PSD, on the other hand, has insisted that it will announce its own candidate for the presidency chosen from internal consultations taking place in the coming weeks. Analysts argue that there may be no room for a new candidacy. Alternatively, the PSD may declare itself neutral in the first round of the elections.

• FRIENDS OF THE DICTATORSHIP: April 1 marked the 58th anniversary of the military coup in Brazil, a date usually celebrated by President Bolsonaro. This year, Defense Minister Walter Braga Neto published an order, signed by the heads of the Armed Forces, distorting history, and celebrating the coup. President Bolsonaro (PL) went further, honoring, once more, the infamous torturer Carlos Alberto Brilhante Ustra and the brutal regime.

• TSE ACTIONS: The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) established the National Front to Combat Disinformation, with the aim of strengthening the transparency and integrity of electoral institutions. The TSE also launched an automated chatbot for those who want to receive, via WhatsApp, services and relevant information about this year's election.

Feature Article

Reflection on Affirmative Action Policy in Higher Education

by Rubia Valente

It has been 10 years since the Brazilian Supreme Court deemed affirmative action constitutional and necessary. On August 29, 2012, President Dilma Rousseff signed Law 12.711/2012 reserving 50% of the slots in federal universities for students from public high schools. Within this quota, slots were allocated to low-income students and to Black, Brown, and Indigenous students. As Justice Joaquim Barbosa stated at the time, “these measures aim to fight not only flagrant manifestations of discrimination, but de facto discrimination, that is so absolutely rooted in our society, so well rooted, that (most) people do not perceive it.” At the time, it seemed like the country that had promoted the myth of racial democracy for decades was finally moving in the right direction towards equality.

Unfortunately, that optimism was short-lived with the election of President Jair Bolsonaro and his vice president Hamilton Mourão in 2018. Both politicians publicly espouse racist views while at the same time denying the existence of racism in Brazilian society. The current administration makes no attempt to hide their contempt for policies enacted to improve equity and inclusion. In fact, since taking office, they significantly reduced spending on policies designed to fight racism in Brazil. While the previous administration’s spending on affirmative action initiatives was on average R$37.2 million reais per year, the current administration only invested R$2.7 million reais in 2020, a significant reduction that clearly shows Bolsonaro’s administrations priorities.

Although racist comments made by the executive branch abound, the attack and campaign against affirmative action policies and quota students is of particular concern. When asked about affirmative action policies, Bolsonaro stated that he does not see justice in racial quotas, and that admission to universities must be by “merit.” On the campaign trail, he stated that, if elected president, he would reduce the percentage of university quotas reserved for Black students. He went on to say, “What debt? I never enslaved anyone in my life. (…) Blacks are not better than me, and I am not better than Blacks. In the military academy many Blacks graduated with me. Some below and some above my ranking, without any problem. Why quotas?”

Here is why: research shows empirically that race is a factor that superposes the effect of class in entrance exams such as the Exame Nacional do Ensino Médio (ENEM) and traditional vestibulares, being therefore an important determinant of admission to institutions of higher education. An anomaly of the Brazilian educational system is that while prestigious institutions at the primary and secondary levels are in the private sector, the situation is reversed at the university level. As a result, prior to the implementation of affirmative action policies, admission to public university was a rigorous process that excluded poor students who could not afford to pay for a private high school education. Since nonwhite Brazilians are disproportionally located at the bottom of the social economic ladder, this system hindered their ability to get into tuition-free public universities. That reality in turn affected their social status, resulting in an intergenerational cycle of socio-economic stagnancy, perpetuating the inequality cycle in Brazil.

Prior to the adoption of affirmative action policies in 2012, only 35.8% of college students nationwide were nonwhite (IBGE 2010). Many of the current social problems in Brazil stem from the large education gap between different racial groups. This is problematic because education, particularly higher education, is the most effective tool for social mobility. By 2018, 50.3% of students in public universities comprised of nonwhite students largely due to affirmative action policies (IBGE 2018). Although an optimistic indicator, it will take generations before the true democratizing effects of affirmative action is evident in Brazilian society.

The vast majority of quota students are the first in their families to attend university. Instead of praising their resilience and providing resources for their educational success, President Bolsonaro disdains and attacks these students with taunts such as, “I would not get on a plane piloted by a quota pilot or be operated on by a quota doctor.” This stems from the myth that “quota students” perform academically worse than traditionally admitted students, and therefore would not be competent in their professions. This fallacy is widely propagated without any foundation or empirical evidence. In fact, research shows that in public university, students finish their degrees at comparable academic performance regardless of manner of admission, and in private universities students admitted through quotas actually perform academically better than non-quota students at the conclusion of their degrees.

Thus, what empirical evidence shows is that affirmative action policies have been an effective mechanism for democratizing access to higher education without compromising quality of education—once given the opportunity to attend college, quota students excel in their academic endeavors. Given the continuing debate over affirmative action programs in Brazil, and the re-evaluation of Law 12.711 this year, it is important to underscore that empirical research provide strong support for the effectiveness of affirmative action policies, particularly those that combine social and racial considerations, in making Brazil a more equitable country.

Affirmative action, along with other social issues will be on the ballot this year. If re-elected, Bolsonaro’s administration will continue to carry out policies that aim to undermine the progress made by affirmative action policies in the last decade. If Brazil is to become a more equitable and just country, it should elect a president who is committed to supporting affirmative action policies in public universities.

Rubia Valente is Assistant Professor at the Marxe School of Public and International Affairs at Baruch College, City University of New York, and WBO Research Fellow.

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.