Editorial

The Election’s Local and International Chess Board Takes Shape

One of the most intriguing developments of this period in the campaign, the stage in which candidates are finalizing their partisan coalitions, has been the way former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has courted the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB). The large but ideologically amorphous MDB is the party of Michel Temer, who ran as Dilma Rousseff’s vice-presidential candidate in 2010 and 2014 before conspiring against her to assume the presidency himself in 2016. For that reason, there are many in Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) who chafe at any new alliance with the MDB. But the MDB is less a vehicle for a coherent political agenda than an assemblage of local political powerbrokers dispersed across Brazil’s vast national territory. Currently, there is a segment of the party—primarily based in the Northeast—that wants to back Lula in the first round of voting, giving up the MDB’s own shot at the presidency represented by the candidacy of Senator Simone Tebet. There is another wing of the MDB centered in the south and center-west of the country that wants to back Bolsonaro, although these are not quite as vocal or prominent as the first group. Finally, there is the group committed to seeing Tebet’s candidacy through to election day. Crucially, Tebet has said she will support anybody in the second round to defeat Bolsonaro. Recognizing the political and symbolical appeal of stitching together as broad a coalition as possible right away, Lula would welcome the support of the MDB, whether explicitly or veiled. That support, whenever it comes, would be another marker of how much has changed in Brazilian politics over the past six years.

Lula met this week with vice-president-elect of Colombia Francia Márquez in São Paulo. Márquez, an Afro-Colombian woman who once worked as a maid, made history by winning the second-highest office in her country this year. She is currently traveling around Latin America before taking office next month. She and Lula showered each other with affection, signaling the warm personal relations likely to be on display between leaders of a renewed leftwing tide that seems to be growing across the region and could culminate in a possible Lula victory. Indeed, restoring deep hemispheric ties will likely be a priority under a new Lula administration after years of short shrift under Bolsonaro and Temer. This week Lula signaled his eagerness to revive negotiations between the European Union and Mercosul, the trade bloc established in the 1990s whose permanent members include Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay but has been mostly dormant in recent years.

Through his cautious campaigning, Lula has continued to build a lead against Bolsonaro. The most recent poll showed that Lula added three points to his lead over the incumbent, with 44 percent to Bolsonaro’s 31 percent. In a way, Bolsonaro’s inability to shift the dynamics of the race is cause for concern. The president and his allies likely sense the momentum is not on their side and will resort to increasingly aggressive measures. To counter Bolsonaro’s worst instincts is partly why a group of Brazilian activists, in coordination with the Washington Brazil Office, was in Washington this week meeting with lawmakers concerned about the situation in Brazil. “Like Trump, Bolsonaro is attempting to undermine democracy in Brazil,” Senator Bernie Sanders said after meeting with the Brazilian delegation. “It is important that the Biden administration and the U.S. Congress stand for democracy and support the results of the upcoming election.” It remains to be seen how far Bolsonaro will push his efforts to destabilize the presidential campaign. It is clear, however, that concerned friends of Brazilian democracy will be watching closely.

Highlights

• MORE CAMPAIGN LAUNCHES: On Sunday, July 24, the Liberal Party (PL) named current President Jair Bolsonaro as its nominee for the presidential ticket before an audience of several thousand in Rio's Maracanazinho stadium. The incumbent announced that former defense minister General Walter Braga Netto would be his vice-presidential running mate. Using his campaign launch as yet another opportunity to baselessly attack the reliability of the nation's electronic voting system, Bolsonaro told cheering supporters: "The army is on our side. It's an army that doesn't accept corruption, doesn't accept fraud." In what could be interpreted as a call to arms, Bolsonaro further advised his followers: "We are the majority, and we are willing to fight. I summon all of you to take to the streets for the last time on September 7." In addition to the Liberal Party, the Popular Union and Avante formalized the candidacies of Leonardo Péricles and André Janones, respectively. 

• OVERSEAS VOTERS: The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) reported a significant increase in foreign nationals eligible to vote in this year's presidential elections. Six hundred ninety-seven thousand seventy-eight voters outside of Brazil are already registered to vote in the 2022 elections – a 39.21% increase from the 2018 elections when there were just over 500,000 voters abroad. In addition, according to statistics from the TSE, 59% of the overseas electorate this year is male, and 42% have completed higher education.

• COMBATTING POLITICAL VIOLENCE: Following the murder of Marcos Arruda from the Workers' Party by a supporter of President Bolsonaro (Liberal Party), the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) established a committee comprised of Electoral Justice officials to curb political violence in the upcoming presidential elections. Signed by the President of the Court, Edson Fachin, the ordinance responded to "reports of attacks on freedom of the press, with an alleged political bias." The task force plans on bringing together different political parties, the Public Ministry, and the Order of Attorneys of Brazil to develop effective methods and gather relevant information to combat violence throughout the electoral process.

• IPESPE POLL: A poll released by the XP/Ipespe Institute this Monday, July 25, showed ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party with 44% of the votes. The incumbent Jair Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party is pictured trailing behind with 35% of the votes. Representing the "third-way," Ciro Gomes of the Democratic Labor Party has 9%, Simone Tebet of the Brazilian Democratic Movement has 4%, and André Janones of Avante has 2%.

• U.S. SECRETARY OF DEFENSE IN BRASILIA: At a regional defense meeting in Brasilia on July 26, U.S. President Joe Biden's defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, stressed the need for Brazil's armed forces to respect the democratic outcome of the upcoming October elections. "Credible deterrence demands military and security forces that are ready, capable, and under firm civilian control," Austin affirmed, adding: "The more we deepen our democracies, the more we deepen our security." His remarks came just two days after President Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) formally launched his reelection bid by saying, "the Army is on our side."

• CONTROVERSY OVER TEBET'S CAMPAIGN: On July 25, allies of Senator Renan Calheiros of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) filed a lawsuit at the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) to postpone the campaign launch of their party's nominee, Senator Simone Tebet. This faction of the Brazilian Democratic Movement is staunchly against supporting its own party's candidate, opting instead to back the candidacy of former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers' Party. On July 26, Minister Mauro Campbell Marques of the Superior Electoral Court denied this request, and the national convention nominated her on July 27, without indicating her vice-presidential running mate. Polls by the Datafolha institute continue to show Tebet with 1% support among potential voters.

• BRAZILIAN CIVIL SOCIETY IN WASHINGTON: During the week of July 25 to July 29, a delegation of 19 Brazilian civil society groups met with U.S. policymakers in Washington, D. C. at an event organized by the Washington Brazil Office to urge the U.S. government to recognize the winner of the October 2 elections quickly. Responding to Bolsonaro's unsubstantiated claims of fraud in the electoral process, the NGOs called on the United States to "immediately recognize the outcome" of the election as soon as official results are released to the public. The U.S. State Department described the meeting as routine, saying U.S. diplomats frequently meet civil society members worldwide. Implicitly rejecting Bolsonaro's baseless claims, one State Department spokesperson said: "We are confident Brazil's 2022 election will reflect the will of the electorate." Drawing a parallel between the U.S. Capitol Attack and the current political climate in Brazil, Democratic Senator Bernie Sanders noted that he was "quite shocked" but not surprised to hear reports of Bolsonaro discrediting Brazil's electoral process. "I hope that the results of the elections are recognized and respected and that democracy prevails in Brazil," affirmed the Senator from the state of Vermont.

Feature Article

Democrats Around the World are Attentive to What Happens in the Brazilian Election

By Paulo Abrão

There is a real risk that President Jair Bolsonaro will prevent the carrying out of the presidential elections. The threat has been repeated, although it is unknown whether there will be a questioning of the poll machines, whether local judges' orders challenging electoral procedures, or whether Bolsonaro will stop the conclusion of the count. Nor is it known whether or not he will invest in acts of violence or other means.

The important thing is to prevent this from happening and ensure that the country has another clean and transparent election, which is crucial for the consolidation of democracy and peace, and is in the interests of the majority of the Brazilian population.

Respect for the electoral process is not in the interests of the left or the right, of one candidate or another; it is in everyone's interest, the essential minimum for the country to continue functioning and not become an international pariah.

The erosion of democracy in Brazil has been going on for a long time. It includes not only the dissemination of fake news and unfounded accusations about the polls and the judges in charge of supervising the electoral process.

It manifests itself in 125 murders and attempted murders, 85 threats, 33 physical attacks, 59 violations of the law, 21 assaults, and 4 cases of arrest or attempted detention of political agents, pre-candidates, candidates, or elected officials, in data recorded between 2016 and 2020 by the joint research of Terra de Direitos and Justiça Global.

It extends through the numerous attacks on indigenous peoples, rights defenders, the press, the LGBTQIA+ community, and many other groups with which the current Brazilian government maintains a violent, permanent, incessant antagonism.

There is no action that, alone, can stop this. There must be joint and robust actions. And they cannot be limited only to Brazil. International support is essential, as this election matters to the entire world.

The current Brazilian government has internationalized its campaign to discredit the electoral system itself. The culmination of this campaign was the pronouncement that Jair Bolsonaro made on July 18 to a skeptical audience of representatives of foreign diplomatic missions in Brasília.

In response, a group of 18 Brazilian civil society organizations is in Washington until Friday, July 29 in order to meet with representatives of the US State Department, the Foreign Relations Committee of the House of Representatives, the president of the US Senate, and with one of the members of the Congressional Committee investigating the invasion of the Capitol, which took place on January 6, 2021. U.S. civil society organizations will also join this sizeable Brazilian delegation.

US officials have been traumatized by Donald Trump's anti-democracy actions. Therefore, there is a mutual interest in exchanging experiences and strengthening the democratic forces in order to prevent anyone in Brazil from trying to copy this American tragedy in the next elections.

The United States does not have any role in interfering with Brazilian democracy — and that is not what Brazilian organizations are demanding. However, we cannot ignore how much the world is interconnected.

All countries and international leaders know what will happen in the Brazilian election. This event will undoubtedly provoke echoes that will impact the fate of many other democracies.

Interest and interdependence are genuine. Opponents of democracy know this. Democratic forces worldwide now have the chance to prove that they can do much better together.

The Brazilian delegation is composed of representatives of the following organizations: Washington Brazil Office, Comissão Arns, Pacto pela Democracia, Articulação dos Povos Indígenas do Brasil - APIB, Artigo 19, Instituto Marielle Franco, Geledés - Instituto da Mulher Negra, Greenpeace Brasil, Instituto Vladimir Herzog, Instituto de Referência Negra Peregum, ABGLT, Conectas, 342 Artes/342 Amazônia, Instituto Clima e Sociedade, Transparência Internacional Brasil, Uneafro, Nave and Conaq.

This article was published in Folha de São Paulo on July 26, 2022 and is available in Portuguese here

Paulo Abrão is the Executive Director of the Washington Brazil Office
______________________________________________
Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.