Jun 2nd 2023 | Nº. 69

Editorial

The Lula administration this week came the closest yet to major political crisis. Congress had until the end of the day on Thursday to formally ratify Lula’s cabinet structure, which he put in place—technically, in a temporary capacity—upon his inauguration in January. If Congress failed to act, key ministries that Lula either created or recreated would cease to exist, including the ministries of culture; indigenous peoples; human rights and citizenship; racial equality; women, among others. The Lula administration, in short, would be forced back into the cabinet arrangement inherited from Bolsonaro. That the extension of the ministerial layout set forth by Lula came down to the wire speaks to eroding relations with Arthur Lira, the speaker of the lower house of Congress. Lira cited “widespread dissatisfaction” in the legislature “with the lack of political articulation in the administration, not of one or another minister.” The powerful speaker has long criticized, openly and indirectly, the administration’s treatment of Congress, suggesting that Lula has been diffident and his political advisors unreliable. “The Chamber [of Deputies] should not be held responsible for the government’s lack of political organization,” Lira said on Wednesday night, referring to the legislative body over which he presides. 

Progressives chafed at Lira’s increasingly open blackmail. While it is a normal part of Brazilian political culture to build administration’s that cater to different power brokers and competing interests, the Bolsonaro administration opted to hand over immense discretionary spending power to Congress, enabling entrenched conservative leaders to dominate the allocation of resources. Lira has signaled an unwillingness to cede that power and, in fact, demands more. Meanwhile, members of Congress from political parties represented in Lula’s cabinet are not voting with the administration in the numbers expected, making it harder for the president to implement his legislative agenda. This week, there was a real sense that the current arrangement between the executive and legislative branches cannot hold much longer. Lira in the end agreed to set a vote on Lula’s cabinet structure, which ultimately passed and then was quickly approved in the Senate, but said he would not be willing to do much more for the administration going forward. 

There are signs that Lula, in his way, could be mounting a counteroffensive to protect his ability to govern. It was announced on Thursday that he would be nominating Cristiano Zanin, his former defense lawyer, to the Supreme Court (STF). On Wednesday, in a remarkable coincidence, given the pressure Lula’s supporters were bringing to bear on Lira, the STF announced that the speaker of the house could be charged next week in relation to corruption allegations from 2019. If found guilty, he could be removed from office, losing the power he is now using to dictate the course of Lula’s government. Although the investigation of the alleged crimes was being conducted well before this latest rift between the executive and legislative branches of government, if a trial proceeds, it could possibly weaken the upper hand that Lyra seems to have at the moment. 

Highlights

• POLICE CASE. Politicians linked to the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Artur Lira, were the target of an operation by the Federal Police, which investigates suspected embezzlement of money in a government program for robotics courses in public schools. The operation was launched on the night of May 31, shortly after Lira had given interviews saying that the government did not know how to negotiate with Congress. The statement by Lira – a politician who became important during the government of Jair Bolsonaro, with whom he was an ally – sounded like blackmail against Lula and the Federal Police operation. At the same time it raised suspicions of political retaliation against Lira. The action takes place in the state of Alagoas, the political stronghold of another influential name in national politics, Senator Renan Calheiros, who is an ally of Lula and an opponent of Lira.

• ZANIN INDICATION. President Lula announced on June 1 that Cristiano Zanin, his personal lawyer since 2013, will be appointed to the vacancy that is open on the Federal Supreme Court, the equivalent of the US Supreme Court. The nominee must go through a hearing with the Constitution and Justice Commission and in Senate full session before filling the vacancy left by Minister Ricardo Lewandowski. Zanin's choice frustrates feminist and black movements that have been defending greater diversity of color and gender in the highest judicial body in the country

• TIMEFRAME. On May 30, the Chamber of Deputies approved Bill 490/07, nicknamed “Timefame.” The law is considered a historical step backwards for Indigenous peoples because, among other provisions, it prohibits the demarcation of all Indigenous lands in Brazil that were not recognized as such before October 5, 1988, when the new constitution was approved. In addition, it removes recognition of all Indigenous lands in the which there has already been contact and acculturation. The law, however, can still be reversed by decision of the Federal Supreme Court, which reviews the case on June 7.

• RESTRUCTURING OF MINISTRIES. In addition to being defeated in the so-called “time frame” vote, the Lula government had another important setback this week: the removal of responsibility over the demarcation of Indigenous lands from the Ministry of Indigenous Peoples and environmental protection powers from the Ministry of Environment. The changes are due to a major restructuring of the ministries. Lula needed to pass a restructuring law that would change the configuration left by his predecessor, Jair Bolsonaro. But this same restructuring plan brings with it the changes that eviscerate the ministries of Indigenous Peoples and the Environment.

• REGIONAL LEADERSHIP. Lula received 12 leaders from South American countries in Brasília at the end of May. The meeting marked the resumption of Brazil's leading role in a region that, during the last four years, had been neglected by former President Jair Bolsonaro. The summit had no specific agenda and no practical decisions were taken. The subjects announced were generic: health, infrastructure, environment, and the fight against organized crime. Politically, Lula managed to demonstrate that he maintains an open dialogue with left and right leaders in the region, without distinction. Furthermore, regional leadership is an important condition for Brazil to project its voice internationally.

• POLITICAL NOISE. Among the leaders present at the summit was Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The last time he had been to Brazil was in 2015 during the government of President Dilma Rousseff. During the following terms – under Michel Temer and Jair Bolsonaro – Maduro was treated as an international outcast. Lula, on the contrary, treated the Venezuelan leader with deference. The Brazilian president went so far as to say that Maduro should make an effort to pass on to the world his own “narrative” of the Venezuelan crisis. The Chilean Presidents Gabriel Boric and Uruguayan President Lacalle Pou reacted the next day, saying that Venezuela's problem is not one of narrative, but of fact. Throughout the week, Lula was heavily criticized by the press and the opposition for a gesture seen as excessively condescending towards Maduro.

• COLLOR CONVICTED. Former Brazilian President Fernando Collor de Mello had his prison sentence set at eight years and ten months by the judges of the Federal Supreme Court. Collor was convicted of corruption and money laundering in a case involving the receipt of bribes in business dealings with a subsidiary of Petrobras. The case is part of Operation Car Wash (Lava Jato). Collor is now a senator, which is why his case was tried in the Supreme Court. The sentence must be served initially in a prison. In 1992, he was the first Brazilian president to be impeached. He was later acquitted of the charges, although he resigned from office before the congressional impeachment vote took place.

• NEW EPISODE. The WBO Brazil Unfiltered podcast, hosted by James N. Green, features an interview with Jonathan Watts, the global environment editor of the British newspaper The Guardian. Watts, who lives in Altamira, Pará, talks about the importance of the Amazon for global climate issues and analyzes the challenges faced by the Lula government in the environmental area.

• BLACK MOVEMENTS. On May 30, a group of 11 Brazilian Black movement organizations affiliated with the WBO presented a letter to the UN Permanent Forum of People of African Descent in New York, in which they defend the adoption of an agenda of racial reparations that is adopted from a Brazilian perspective. The group also asked that the next meeting of the Forum be held in Brazil.

Feature Article

by Michelle Hallack

COP 30 in Brazil: An Opportunity to Push the Climate Justice Agenda Further Along

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s announced that the United Nations had chosen Brazil to host the 2025 U.N. Climate Change Conference.  COP 30 is expected to be held in the city of Belem, state of Pará, in the heart of the Brazilian rainforest, bringing the focus to the Amazon region. Belem is also a metropolitan region with the highest proportion of households in slum areas. It is estimated that more than 50 percent of the households are in areas with low or no basic infrastructure (according to Wellness Urban Index, IBEU). The lack of minimum household infrastructure is associated with urban poverty, insecurity, irregular occupation of urban land, and a lack of sanitary infrastructure. Therefore, according to IBEU, the possibility of flooding is the most significant urban environment risk factor in this region.  

COP 30 in Belem can be seen as symbolic of the climate justice agenda, as it is a city in the heart of Amazonia, one of the essential regions to achieve our climate goals. Belem is also where most of the population lives in vulnerable conditions, which could be considered among those who have least benefited from industries and technologies causing climate change and those more likely to suffer first and the worst because of climate change. Besides that, it is also a population that may suffer from climate change policy restrictions if climate justice is not considered.  

COP 30 is a remarkable opportunity for Brazil to lead developing countries' environmental diplomacy and civil society organizations to strengthen the climate justice agenda. COP30 is an opportunity to underline the need for climate justice through democratic transformation and to bring about concrete results for the Amazonian region and all vulnerable front-line communities impacted by climate change and by climate change policy constraints in the region. Moreover, COP30 is an opportunity to set an example and move the needle in a region that requires urgent transformation.  

Climate justice is not a new agenda; during COP 27 in Egypt, an agreement was reached to establish a funding mechanism to compensate vulnerable nations for ‘loss and damage’ from climate-induced disasters. This is a step toward the climate justice agenda. However, there is still a long way to go. The resources flowing from developed to developing countries are below the target mark and far below the need for transformation (UN 2022). Moreover, in most cases, there is no precise mechanism to guarantee the allocation of these resources to empower and respond to the needs of the most vulnerable groups within developing countries. While the current clean technology race in developed countries may help to accelerate clean innovation, it may hurt overall equity. Climate funds allocation often combines the industrial, economic, and geopolitical interests of those who own the resource. Consequently, it may focus more on the problems and priorities of those who own the resources than on beneficiaries and local communities. And in some cases, it may even hinder the development needs of the beneficiary countries, local communities, and developing countries.  

Climate justice is a broad concept that emphasizes the need for fairness and equity in addressing the impacts of climate change. It recognizes that the most vulnerable communities, particularly those in developing countries, often bear the most significant burden of climate change despite contributing the least to it. The IMF shows a clear correlation between those countries with higher exposure and lower adaptive capacity.  

The effects and policies of climate change will modify the strategic position of countries and economic groups (between countries and within countries). The lack of an active strategy will mean a passive realignment and accelerate the disempowerment of those most impacted by climate change. On the contrary, the necessary reallocation of resources (financial, technological, and cultural) can be an opportunity to decrease inequalities. In this context, the importance of climate justice goes beyond equity and historical responsibility; it is important for guaranteeing human rights, sustainable development, and protecting democracy. 

The ability of democracies to tackle climate change will depend on how inclusive mitigation and adaptation policies are. As with any other policy in a democratic context, these policies require political support. Thus, climate change policies that do not consider socio-economic development will struggle to be implemented. The effort to implement policies without inclusion can become a challenge for democracy. Most right-wing, anti-democratic political forces are aligned with climate change deniers. Their discourse often gains supporters from working-class and vulnerable groups by arguing how climate change policy may negatively impact their short-term well-being, for instance, by increasing fuel costs or banning (or increasing the costs) of some economic activities. In this context, the climate justice perspective must be at the heart of a positive dynamic between democracy and climate change policies.      

Climate justice and democracy strengthening are also aligned with the need to empower the most vulnerable groups impacted by the effects and policies of climate change. Climate justice emphasizes the importance of inclusive decision-making processes locally, regionally, nationally, and internationally. Civil society organizations representing women, workers, Indigenous people, people of color, front-line communities, and low-income groups (among other vulnerable groups) must be empowered to push further the climate justice agenda while deepening democracy. 

COP 30 means that Brazil will preside over the proceedings and negotiations; it allows the host country to push further the concept of climate justice, considering the different perspectives about vulnerability. It will allow discussion considering international policy, the Global South’s demands, and underline regional collaboration (e.g., South America). It will also allow discussion of climate justice inside the country and among different key groups. However, benefiting from this opportunity depends on the country’s preparation during the next 18 months. Thus, it will require the government and governmental institutions to be well prepared internally and externally. It will also require an enormous effort from civil society organizations. Finally, it will require dialogue at different levels, from local to international groups, to guarantee inclusion and diversity in the political and technical discussions.  

Michelle Hallack has more than 15 years of experience in the energy sector, working to bridge the gap between state-of-the-art knowledge and policy-oriented decision-makers. She was a professor of Economics at Federal Fluminense University and an advisor at the Florence School of Regulation (EUI). Recently, she has coordinated knowledge teams and products for multilateral institutions. As a consequence of academic and policy-oriented research, in the last 10 years, Michelle co-authored 29 articles in peer-reviewed journals. She also participated in 8 book chapters, over 40 MDBs reports, and 30 working papers. Her research interests are just energy transition, climate finance, and climate justice.

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.