Dec 09 2022 | Nº. 44

Editorial

Brazil's New Government Takes the Spotlight as the World Cup Dream Fades

Some of the mystery surrounding the cabinet of incoming president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva lifted this week as key names were confirmed, some of which had already been broadly presumed. As had reported, for example, former Education Minister Fernando Haddad was confirmed as Lula’s pick for the all-important position of minister of finance. Haddad checks many of the boxes Lula said he wanted for that role. Haddad is an experienced politician, having served as mayor of São Paulo from 2012 to 2016 and runner-up in the 2018 presidential race and 2022 gubernatorial race in the country’s largest state. He is also a moderate within the Workers’ Party, someone who can masterfully communicate the party’s goals and priorities while also conveying thoughtful fair-mindedness. Flávio Dino of the Brazilian Socialist Party (PSB), whose political skill was amply demonstrated by his victory over the entrenched Sarney family in the 2014 Maranhão governor’s race, was named minister of justice. Experienced career diplomat Mauro Vieira was named Brazil’s next foreign minister, a position many expected to be filled by a woman once it became clear the role would not go to Celso Amorim, who earned international plaudits for his command of Brazilian foreign policy under Lula.

This first wave of cabinet announcements, only a handful out of dozens to come, can be seen as a sign of Lula’s clearest preferences. These are the appointments, in other words, that Lula himself picked and were not the product of complicated interparty negotiations. The nomination of José Múcio Monteiro to be minister of defense disappointed some on the left who see him as a starkly conservative figure unwilling to take on the heavy lifting of depoliticizing the armed forces after Bolsonaro spent years trying to coopt the military for his own ends. But Múcio is a personal friend of Lula who served in his administration before and, crucially, is a civilian, a trait that Lula insisted on. For his chief of staff, Lula chose a member of his own party, Rui Costa, the well-regarded governor of Bahia who was elected in the first round in 2014 and reelected four years later with 75 percent of the vote. There are other cabinet positions that will be decided—with Lula’s ultimate approval—by the broad coalition of parties that Lula has managed to attract. Several of these are likely to disappoint Lula’s most progressive supporters. So far, however, in the clearest expression of his governing preference, Lula is highlighting in Haddad, Dino, and Costa a rising generation of political talent on the center-left that happen to have his total confidence. 

As Lula’s inauguration festivities take shape, it is now clear that it won’t involve any celebration of a Brazil victory at the World Cup. Brazil was eliminated in a penalty shoot-out against Croatia, ending the country’s hope of winning its sixth title. Nevertheless, Lula’s inauguration is shaping up to be a major popular event. Lula’s first inauguration twenty years ago produced stirring images of poor and working-class people partying in the country’s modernist capital. The scene is likely to be repeated this year as the country’s polarization endures despite a new poll showing that a majority of Brazilians want the Lula administration to succeed. Indeed, data released by Genial/Quaest indicates that 93 percent of Brazilians hope for a successful new administration, a broad hope to be sure, but one that indicates some surprising goodwill being extended to the incumbent. The same poll showed that 43% believe a new Lula administration will improve Brazil’s image around the world. It remains to be seen, of course, how Lula’s early moves to flesh out his cabinet will be received domestically and abroad. So far, there have been no unpleasant surprises. Given the high stakes, this is no small point.

Highlights

• LULA MEETS WITH WHITE HOUSE ENVOY. On Monday, December 5, President-elect Lula (Worker's Party) received the US Security Advisor Jake Sullivan. Former São Paulo Mayor Fernando Haddad, Senator Jaques Wagner, and former Minister of Foreign Affairs Celso Amorim also attended the meeting. The conversation lasted nearly two hours, and Sullivan reiterated the invitation from US President Joe Biden for Lula to visit him in Washington.

• BOLSONARO TRIED TO EXTINGUISH THE SPECIAL COMMISSION ON POLITICAL DEATHS AND DISAPPEARANCES DURING THE MILITARY DICTATORSHIP. Marco Vinícius Pereira de Carvalho, the president of the Special Commission on Political Deaths and Disappearances (CEMDP), called an extraordinary meeting for next Wednesday, December 14, to analyze and vote on the extinction of the Commission. Bolsonaro's government sproposes to finalize the work of the collegiate responsible for dealing with crimes committed during the military dictatorship less than a month after the inauguration of president-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

• WORKERS’ PARTY FIRST ROUND VICTORY AT THE SENATE. On December 7, the Senate concluded a second round of the voting, on the Proposed Amendment to the Constitution (PEC) of the Transition. The text raises the spending ceiling so that the next government can maintain the R$600 of Bolsa Família (currently Auxílio Brasil) and finance other social programs starting in January. The Transition PEC is the big bet of the President-elect Lula to carry out one of his central campaign promises. The spending ceiling is a fiscal barrier that prohibits the government from increasing expenditures above the previous year's limit plus inflation. Moreover, growing mandatory expenditures (such as social security benefits) reduces the possibilities for optional expenditures within the spending ceiling. This way, non-mandatory payments, such as investments and funding of the public administration, can be blocked.

• BOLSONARO CUTS BUDGET FOR ESSENTIAL PUBLIC SERVICES. The federal government's fifth spending block in the 2022 Budget affected several areas and disrupted services. The cuts announced at the end of November, totaling R$5.7 billion, left the Bolsonaro administration paralyzed. Education and health are the most affected areas. In addition, budget cuts left federal universities without operating funds. The government has also suspended payments for medical residents, interrupted the production of passports, and left federal police cars without funds for their maintenance.

• LULA'S MINISTRIES. The transition team has been reviewing the structure of ministries and secretariats for the incoming government. Redesigning government operations has focused on the Ministry of Economy, but ongoing discussions involve at least ten ministries, including Agriculture, Development, Culture, Communications, Environment, and Foreign Affairs.

Feature Article

Brazil’s Anti-Democratic Police Must be Held Accountable 

By Erika Larkins and Susana Durão

In the leadup to the election, there was much speculation about whether or not Bolsonaro had the kind of institutional support from the military or other political leaders to carry out a coup if he lost. We now know he does not. Brazil's democratic institutions are working. But what the events of the last month have revealed is that the outgoing president, together with his remaining allies and his politician sons, have strategically weaponized the police force, with potentially long-term consequences. The politicization of the police poses a real risk to the construction of a flourishing, progressive Brazil. Breaking with a culture of impunity should be among Lula’s first priorities as when he takes office. 

Starting on election day, one particular police force emerged as the armed wing of Bolsonarismo: the Federal Highway Police, which just so happens to be controlled directly by the president, not state governors. While millions of Brazilians went to the polls, this force carried out a highly unusual set of actions. Following a plan supposedly hatched at the presidential residence in the days prior to the election, the force established an unprecedented number of police checkpoints (almost 600), stopping vehicles and checking IDs and preventing people from reaching the polls. Checkpoints occurred in greatest numbers in the North and Northeast region, where Lula enjoys the greatest support. Police participation in what amounts to voter suppression is under investigation by Federal Prosecutors in Brasilia 

Anti-democratic protests spread across the country in the aftermath of the election. Fueled by Bolsonaro’s dog whistling, his supporters took to the streets, shutting down roads with trucks, with over 962 blockades in 25 states. Some called for military intervention. Others even evoked Nazis. The Federal Highway Police again played a problematic role.  The same force which so effectively stopped buses on election day seemed to move at a snail's pace when it came to removing blockades, so much so that the Supreme Court ordered their commander be fined 100,000 reais for every hour of what seemed to be inaction. In a chilling video which went viral, one officer told a cheering crowd that his only order was to be out in the streets with them. In a handful of states, the Military Police had to be called out by the state governors to do the work their colleagues would not or could not. 

The Federal Highway Police is relatively young compared to other law enforcement groups in Brazil. It doesn't have a strong identity, making it more open to political manipulation. Commander Silvinei Vasques, who was supposedly recommended for his post by Flavio Bolsonaro in 2021, has transformed the force. Through untransparent pork barrel funding mechanisms, known as the “secret budget,” developed under the current government and which are now under investigation, two of Bolsonaro’s sons, who hold elected office in the legislature, are alleged to have sent millions of reais to Vasques and other top brass. Vasques even called for people to vote for Bolsonaro on social media. 

Under Vasques’ leadership, the Federal Highway Police began to branch out from a more traditional scope of work policing highways to be active participants in police operations in favelas for example, far outside of their jurisdiction and beyond their legal mandate. They have also been the perpetrators of several recent cases of brutality, including the massacre of 26 men suspected of planning a bank robbery in Minas Gerais, and the use of tear gas on an already restrained suspect that led to his death. 

In the immediate aftermath of the election, political pressure finally forced the police to do their job. For now. Lula and his administration must immediately look for ways to seek accountability for those officers who supported calls for the coup and encouraged undemocratic unrest. Brazil cannot have a police force working to undermine the president, be it via active steps like suppressing the vote, or passive ones, where officers simply looked the other way. The future stability of the country depends on it. 

Dr. Erika Larkins is Associate Professor of Anthropology and Behner Stiefel Chair of Brazilian Studies at San Diego State University 

Dr. Susana Durão is Associate Professor of Anthropology and Secretary of Security at the State University of Campinas, São Paulo.

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.