Jan 31 2025| Nº. 152

Editorial

Last Friday, the first wave of Brazilians deported from the United States since the inauguration of Donald Trump arrived in the Amazonian city of Manaus. Onboard were 88 Brazilians, many of whom were reportedly handcuffed and treated poorly during the process. According to Brazilian authorities, such treatment violated a bilateral agreement between the U.S. and Brazil, signed in 2018, aiming to expedite the deportation of Brazilians held in U.S. immigration detention centers. In 2021, after reports that Brazilians were being handcuffed during deportation flights, the Brazilian government requested a review of the procedure by U.S. authorities. In response to events this week, Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira called for discussions with U.S. authorities to ensure that future deportations meet basic standards of dignity and human rights. The Brazilian government strongly criticized the conditions of the deportation flight, including the poor maintenance of the plane and allegations of physical abuse by U.S. agents. Brazil labeled the deportation operation as "degrading" and highlighted violations of agreements between the two countries, particularly concerning the treatment of deportees.

This situation reflects broader regional uncertainty over how to respond to the belligerence of the Trump administration. Under President Gustavo Petro, Colombia on Sunday signaled its intent to forbid U.S. deportation flights, triggering a cascade of threats from Washington. Although Petro’s government backed down shortly thereafter, its actions placed a glaring spotlight on the bullying hemispheric tactics of the new U.S. president. This stands in contrast to Brazil’s more cautious approach to the situation thus far. 

As President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva begins the penultimate year of his third term, questions about the 2026 presidential campaign have arisen. On Wednesday, Gilberto Kassab, the head of the center-right Social Democratic Party, called Finance Minister Fernando Haddad “weak” and claimed that he was unable to manage Brazil's economy effectively. Kassab’s party grew more than any other in last year’s municipal elections and while he has in the past maintained good relations with Lula and other members of the Workers’ Party, Kassab is reportedly working behind the scenes to boost the candidacy of Tarcísio de Freitas, the current governor of São Paulo. “If it were today,” Kassab said, “[Lula] would be in the campaign, but not as a favorite, but as a loser. But Lula is always a strong candidate.” In response, on Thursday, Lula told reporters during a wide-ranging press conference that Kassab was being unfair to Haddad, who has overseen several major policy breakthroughs. He also noted thankfully that there are almost two years before Brazilians vote for president. 

Highlights

• Impeachment. The Regional Electoral Court of São Paulo revoked the mandate of federal congresswoman Carla Zambelli this Thursday and made her ineligible for eight years. The decision was made by five votes in favor and two against. The impeachment was due to improper use of the media and the practice of abuse of political power in an episode in which the congresswoman spread false information about electronic voting machines in Brazil. An appeal to the Superior Electoral Court is still possible. The deputy, who remains in office until the appeal is heard, has become one of the main activists of the extreme right and is at the forefront of the campaign led by this political sector in the United States, where she is trying to convince the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights that there is ongoing political persecution in Brazil.

• Congressional election. The Chamber of Deputies, Brazil’s lower house, and the Senate are expected to elect their new presidents internally this Saturday, February 1. The favorite in the Chamber is Congressman Hugo Motta, from the right-wing Republicanos party, from the state of Paraíba. In the Senate, the favorite is Davi Alcolumbre, from the right-wing União party, from the state of Amapá. Motta is an exponent of the so-called “centrão” (Big Center), a name given to a broad political sector that is interested in negotiating positions and funds, rather than in programmatic positions. Alcolumbre was previously president of the Senate. He was replaced by Rodrigo Pacheco, and is expected to take the position back now. Both are supported by a comprehensive and multi-party agreement.

• I'm Still Here. The National Human Rights Council recommended that two reserve military personnel of the Brazilian Army be declared “unworthy of the officership” and lose their ranks. The recommendation was made to the Ministry of Defense, which would be responsible for making the political-administrative decision to order the Army command to implement the action. The two military men – General José Antônio Nogueira Belham and Major Jacy Ochsendorf e Souza – are two of the five individuals indicted by the Federal Public Prosecutor's Office (the other three have already died) for the disappearance, torture, death and concealment of the body of former congressman Rubens Paiva during the dictatorship (1964-1985). Rubens Paiva's story is currently in the spotlight in Brazil because of the film I'm Still Here, directed by Walter Salles, for which actress Fernanda Montenegro received a Golden Globe and is nominated for an Oscar. The film has also been nominated for an Oscar for best film and for best international feature film.

• Coup plot. Last Saturday, journalist Elio Gaspari published the content of the plea bargain made to the courts by Lieutenant Colonel Mauro Cid, former aide-de-camp to Jair Bolsonaro. Cid is the main whistleblower in the coup plot created by Bolsonaro and high-ranking military officers to prevent Lula from winning the 2022 elections. Among the new information revealed by Gaspari is that Jair's wife, Michelle Bolsonaro, and one of his sons, Eduardo Bolsonaro, were part of the most radical wing of those involved in the coup plot. In total, Cid gave ten statements to the Federal Police. Gaspari published information from the first statement, taken in 2023. Cid's defense filed a request for an investigation into the leaking of the content, which should be confidential.

• Influencers. Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes ordered the suspension of the social media profiles of journalist Luís Ernesto Lacombe and bloggers Allan dos Santos and Max Cardoso, as well as Timeline Magazine. Moraes, who is the rapporteur of the so-called “fake news investigation,” did not disclose the reason for the suspension of the profiles. Those affected by the measure complained of censorship. Moraes' new attack on far-right figures who spread false information is likely to fuel a broader dispute with the political sector linked to Bolsonaro, who has been gaining visibility and growing support in the United States from influential actors closely linked to the new Trump administration, such as Steve Bannon and Elon Musk.

• Dispute at IBGE. The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) spent the week embroiled in an internal crisis involving the institution's president, Marcio Pochmann, one of the leading economists associated with the Brazilian Left. Since taking office, appointed by Lula, Pochmann has faced resistance from the institution's directors, some of whom resigned from their positions following the government's announcement in September 2024 that it would create a private law foundation called IBGE+. The government says that the proposal to create the new institution was intended to expand the search for sources of funding for Brazil's main public geography and statistics agency, but civil servants critical of Pochmann see the proposal as a maneuver to create a parallel institution, which would be less subject to public control.

News from ABO and social organizations and movements:

Humiliating deportations. The deportation of 88 Brazilian citizens sent back to Brazil from the United States on the evening of Saturday, January 25, was marked by several violations of International Human Rights Law and other international documents on immigration, which requires a strong reaction not only from the Brazilian government, but also from civil society in both countries, as well as from regional bodies responsible for monitoring the situation, in the view of the WBO (Washington Brazil Office). Read the official statement at the link.

New podcast. In the new episode of the WBO podcast, Brazil Unfiltered, James N. Green talks to Marianna Poyares about the impact of so-called big tech on Brazilian politics. The doctor of philosophy and Fritz Fellow at Georgetown’s Center on Privacy and Technology analyzes Elon Musk’s attacks on the Brazilian Judiciary, the formation of a nucleus of oligarchs who own social networks within the new Trump administration, and the challenges that this poses for Brazilian democracy at this time. Learn more about the program at the link.

Brazil and the USA. The WBO executive director, Paulo Abrão, gave two important interviews this week. In the podcast O Assunto, hosted by journalist Natuza Nery, he made a legal analysis of U.S. domestic regulations and international treaties regarding the transportation of deportees from the USA. Abrão gave an analysis to Agência Pública about the articulation of the extreme right in Brazil and the USA in this new term of Donald Trump. Listen to the podcast and read the interview.

69th CSW. The ABO worked this week to increase the reach of the call that the Ministry of Women launched, asking for contributions from Brazilian civil society organizations to improve the draft of the Political Declaration on the Occasion of the Thirtieth Anniversary of the Fourth World Conference on Women and the Multi-Year Work Program of the UN Commission on the Status of Women, which will be discussed in March, during the 69th Session of the CSW (Commission on the Status of Women), at the United Nations headquarters in New York. The ABO's action focused on calling on partner organizations, analyzing the draft declaration, and sharing this analysis through virtual meetings held this week.

New member. WWF Brazil became the 73rd organization affiliated with the WBO. This union will further strengthen the internationalization of the defense of Brazilian biomes such as the caatinga and cerrado, the fight against mining, and the advocacy in spaces such as COP30. WWF is a Brazilian non-profit non-governmental organization that works to change the current trajectory of environmental degradation and promote a fairer and healthier future for all, in which society and nature live in harmony. Learn more by clicking on the link.

Feature Article

Brazil at a Crossroads: Oil Exploration on the Equatorial Margin Tests Climate Commitments

By Mariana de Araújo Castro*

In June 2023, the Brazilian Institute of the Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (IBAMA) denied Petrobras a license to explore for oil in the Foz do Amazonas basin, in what was perhaps the first internal political conflict of the Lula III government between a vision that opposes economic development to the environment and another that seeks to align public policies with the climate emergency. In the last decade, the climate crisis has become an indisputable issue, with increasing mobilization of governments and organizations. In recent speeches, Lula highlighted the responsibility of the Global North and the need to implement climate agreements. On the domestic front, the government launched the "Ecological Transformation Plan" within the new Growth Acceleration Program (PAC), suggesting a more responsible stance in this area.

However, the controversy over oil in the Equatorial Margin has raised questions about the government’s environmental commitment, reflecting the challenge of balancing economic development and reducing inequality with a more vigorous approach to climate change. The Equatorial Margin, which stretches from Rio Grande do Norte to Amapá, is home to 65 oil exploration blocks that have been granted to companies but are not yet producing. This exploration poses high environmental risks due to the strength of ocean currents and the lack of comprehensive studies on the environmental risks of this type of activity in the region. One example of this was the failure of a Petrobras drilling project in 2011, which had to be abandoned.

The Foz do Amazonas basin stands out for its rich marine biodiversity and carbon capture capacity, and plays a crucial role in climate mitigation. Currently, around 41 blocks in the Equatorial Margin have been granted, but 20 are on hold due to licensing issues. The National Petroleum Agency (ANP) still has another 81 blocks in "permanent offer" and is considering granting another 382, ​​pending environmental analyses and the Environmental Assessment of Sedimentary Areas (AAAS). This assessment is defended by IBAMA and the Ministry of the Environment as essential to ensure a safer and more sustainable licensing process.

Oil exploration in this region also faces international challenges. Neighboring nations French Guiana and Suriname have already advanced exploration, which increases pressure on Brazil. Companies, such as Petrobras and Shell, are leading the concessions, arguing that exploration is crucial for national energy security, especially given the expected decline in production in the Pre-Salt after 2030.

IBAMA's refusal generated mixed reactions from the government. On the one hand, Petrobras and its allies argue that exploration would boost economic development in the North and Northeast regions, generating jobs and revenue to finance the energy transition. The then-president of Petrobras, Jean Paul Prates, emphasized that drilling would be "the least offensive" and necessary to structure an economy that preserves the forest. On the other hand, the Minister of the Environment, Marina Silva, is firmly opposed to the expansion of the use of fossil fuels, defending the prioritization of sustainable alternatives. Her stance faced public resistance, including from the Minister of Mines and Energy, Alexandre Silveira, who classified IBAMA's decision as "inadmissible" and treated the case as a bureaucratic issue. His strategy included appealing to the Attorney General's Office (AGU) to contest IBAMA's decision, emphasizing national sovereignty and the strategic nature of exploration.

However, IBAMA's decision is supported by scientific and environmental concerns. In addition to the risks of leaks and irreparable damage to biodiversity, there are questions about the economic viability of exploration in the Equatorial Margin.

Experts point out that prioritizing fossil fuels contradicts Brazil's international climate commitments and ignores the urgency of reducing carbon emissions.

In June 2024, Lula publicly expressed his support for oil exploration, stating that "we cannot give up a source of wealth." This statement generated widespread repercussions, especially among environmentalists and social movements, who criticized the government for prioritizing economic interests over Brazil's climate goals. On the same day, the ANP announced the inclusion of new blocks for oil exploration in Roraima. This decision was interpreted by critical sectors as a move that contradicted the president's climate commitments.

The outcome of these conflicts will be a crucial indicator of the direction the government will take in relation to environmental and climate governance, as well as its commitment to a livable future. All of these discussions will become even more relevant in 2025, when Brazil will host COP-30, with several civil society movements and institutions already organizing to pressure the government for more forceful political action, and also because the current licenses for oil exploration in the Equatorial Margin expire in June of this year. The government's environmental department continues to defend the exclusion of these and other areas, while the ANP intends to renew them.

Brazil finds itself at a decisive moment, in which the choices made will reverberate for decades. While promises of a sustainable future are reiterated in official speeches, these events highlight the contradictions of a policy that tries to reconcile economic growth and environmental preservation. The case of the Equatorial Margin adds to other challenges faced by the Lula government in its attempt to balance internal forces in a context of climate change.

*Mariana de Araújo Castro is a PhD candidate in Political Science at IESP-UERJ, a researcher at the Interdisciplinary Observatory of Climate Change and the Laboratory of Global Political Analysis at the same university; and an associate researcher at BOA (Brazil Office Alliance).

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.