Set 22 2023 | Nº. 85

Editorial

The focus of the Lula administration this week was the UN General Assembly in New York. By tradition, the Brazilian president opens proceedings at the annual gathering of diplomats, world leaders, and government officials. By tradition, Brazil is the first country to speak, and Lula emphasized his country’s commitment to the UN as a multilateral body of democratic global governance as well as highlighting its shortcomings. Among other things, he called for an expansion in the permanent membership of the Security Council as a way of accounting for changes in the international arena since the end of World War II. Speaking after Lula, U.S. president Joe Biden echoed the idea that the UN must actively ensure its relevance in a changing world.

Lula seized the opportunity to demonstrate his engagement with the United States on a host of issues. Most prominently, he and Biden launched a new initiative to strengthen labor rights, a topic central to the political identities of both leaders. As Lula stated in his speech, “I have already told American trade union members that my admiration for President Biden’s vision of unions comes from his first speech at his inauguration when he said, and I quote, ‘The wealth of the U.S. was not made by the business sector.  It was built by the workers.’ That is the purest truth.” While it remains to be seen what will come from this new undertaking, it was presented in terms of deep mutual appreciation between both leaders. Lula’s foreign policy views, some of which have proven controversial in Washington, do not appear to have left severe lasting damage to U.S.-Brazil ties. 

Another gesture Lula made showing that he is flexible and open to dialogue was to sit down with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Over the past year, both leaders have questioned each other’s motives, with Lula suggesting that Zelensky bore at least some of the blame for the Russian invasion. They pointed fingers at each other when a scheduled meeting at the G7 summit in May fell through. By all accounts, however, the conversation between both leaders in New York reset a relationship that had become frosty. “Following our honest and constructive discussion,” Zelensky tweeted after the meeting, “we instructed our diplomatic teams to work on the next steps in our bilateral relations and peace efforts. Brazilian representative[s] will continue to take part in the Peace Formula meetings.” This type of involvement is what Lula has craved from the start.

Highlights

• TIMEFRAME. The Supreme Court formed a majority on Thursday, September 21 to overturn the “timeframe” – a rule that, if it had been approved, would have prevented Indigenous lands that had not been claimed as such up until the promulgation of the 1988 Constitution from being eligible for demarcation purposes. The “timeframe” was seen as a huge threat to the Indigenous cause and the preservation of the environment, and was being defended mainly by agrobusiness.  

• COUP D'ETAT. Army Lieutenant Colonel Mauro Cid, former aide-de-camp to Jair Bolsonaro, said in a statement to the Federal Police that the former president received a draft document declaring a coup d'état in Brazil shortly before leaving office. The draft had been delivered to Bolsonaro by his former advisor for international affairs, Filipe Martins. Then, according to Cid's testimony, the document was shown by Bolsonaro to the commanders of the Armed Forces. The plan, which called for the arrest of Bolsonaro's political opponents, received support at the time from the then Navy commander, Almir Garnier, but reportedly discouraged the commanders of the other armed forces discouraged the idea. Cid's testimony is part of a plea bargain deal signed with the Federal Police. The information was leaked by the press, and there is no information on whether Cid presented other evidence that could prove what he reported to the agents.

• ELECTORAL RULES. During the month of October, Congress will be presenting more than 60 changes to Brazilian electoral rules. The so-called “mini-electoral reform” has been receiving support from both left-wing and right-wing parties. This widespread support is because the mini-reform makes campaign financing rules more flexible and relaxes rules on minimum quotas for women and Black candidates. These rules were ignored by many parties during the 2022 elections. Now these parties are interested in receiving forgiveness for the fines that were applied by the Electoral Court. The broad support for this mini-reform comes from a political party system that, with few exceptions, still resists policies aimed at historically underrepresented and marginalized groups in Brazil.

• AMNESTY FOR PARTIES. One of the forgiveness measures for political parties is the so-called Amnesty Constitutional Amendment Proposal (PEC). This amnesty would be applied to parties that did not comply with the minimum race and gender quotas. According to the electoral rules, parties should have allocated 30 percent of their resources to financing campaigns for women and people of color in 2022. In addition to forgiving fines, this PEC also allows parties to use donations from companies to settle campaign debts, contrary to the previous rule that only allowed fundraising from individuals. Only two sectors oppose this PEC: the PSOL-Rede Federation on the left and the Novo Party on the right. The rest see the debate as an opportunity to eliminate the liabilities of their parties with the Electoral Court.

• MAJOR MINI-REFORM. One of the changes proposed in this reform determines that 15 percent of seats in the Chamber of Deputies and state legislative assemblies should be reserved for women starting in 2024. This percentage is lower than the current 17.7 percent of seats already filled by women in the Chamber of Deputies. Current law also determines that 30 percent of candidates running in a given party must be female. But, if the change is approved, parties will no longer need to have 30 percent of the ticket composed of female candidates. They may simply not fill these vacancies, as long as the remaining candidates – from white men, for example – do not exceed 70 percent of the party's total number running for office. To be applied in the 2024 municipal elections, these changes must be approved by Congress by the first week of October 2023.

• ULTIMATE SHOWDOWN. Conservative congressional representatives and senators, the majority linked to former president Jair Bolsonaro and Evangelical politicians, are discussing issues such as their opposition the decriminalization of drug possession, same-sex marriage, the right to abortion, and the demarcation of indigenous lands in order to confront decisions that are currently being addressed by the Supreme Court. The initiative goes in two directions: it is a criticism of what many members of the congress see as an invasion of the Supreme Court's jurisdiction over congressional legislation, but it is also a strong conservative reaction against social advances that are being defended by the judiciary given the mostly reactionary composition of the Congress.

• CAR WASH INVESTIGATION. After having decided to throw out the evidence linked to the Odebrect construction company in the Car Wash (Lava Jato) Operation, Supreme Court Justice Dias Toffoli took yet another decision that goes against the direction of what has been seen as the most extensive judicial and police operation against corruption in Brazil. However, over the years, it has become clear that Operation Car Wash was a political tool directed mainly against Lula and the Workers’ Party by former Judge Sergio Moro and Prosecutor Deltan Dallagnol, who colluded to formulate the accusations and the judgment against Lula. In this second decision, Toffoli decided to keep Judge Eduardo Appio – a fierce and combative critic of Lava Jato – at the head of the 13th Federal Court of Curitiba, which has previously been occupied by Sergio Moro, despite the fact that Appio had previously been declared a suspect by the 4th Regional Court. The case ended up at the National Council of Justice.

• INTEREST RATE. The Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee reduced the basic interest rate in Brazil by 0.5 percentage points, which now stand at 12.75 percent per year – the lowest level in 16 months. This is the second time in a row that the body has decided to lower the interest rate, which has repercussions throughout the Brazilian economy. Setting interest rates at lower levels was a point of great friction between President Lula and Roberto Campos Neto, the president of the Central Bank, who was appointed to the position by Bolsonaro. The repeated drops in the rate are a victory above all for Minister of Economy Fernando Haddad, who has been making diplomatic statements about the president of the Central Bank in order to ensure that rates are maintained at a level lower than the 13.75 percent rate that was in force at the beginning of the Lula government and at the highest level since 2016.

NEWS FROM SOCIAL ORGANIZATIONS AND MOVEMENTS:

PLENARY MEETING. On Friday, September 22, the Pact for Democracy will hold a plenary session in São Paulo open to more than 150 organizations that make up this Brazilian civil society initiative created to defend and improve democracy in the country. The meeting will define the Pact's action strategy for the coming years. The WBO is one of the organizations that will be present in the plenary meeting.

MARIELLE FRANCO. It is now 2,000 days since the brutal murder of Rio de Janeiro City Councilor Marielle Franco and her driver, Anderson Gomes. This was the subject of a seminar held on Wednesday, September 20th, at State University of Rio de Janeiro (UERJ). The event was promoted by the Marielle Franco Institute, Amnesty International, Justiça Global, Coalizão Negra por Direito and Terra de Direito. After five years, justice has still not reached the perpetrators of this crime.

INDIGENOUS WOMEN. Themis – Gender, Justice and Human Rights, which has been working to expand Brazilian women's access to justice and human rights for 30 years, was one of the organizations that participated in the third edition of the March of Indigenous Women held in Brasília in September. The organization emphasized that its participation “is part of the construction of a process of approaching and listening to the agendas of Indigenous women to understand the rights violations suffered by them.”

Feature Article

by Feliciano de Sá Guimarães and Beatriz Pfeifer

Brazil’ Resurgence and Leadership in the G20: forging global bridges in a shifting world order

As of December 1, 2023, the presidency of the Group of 20 (G20) will transition from India to Brazil, marking a significant moment in the evolving landscape of global governance. In the coming year, Brazil will serve as the host for over hundreds of meetings, a critical opportunity to address the increasingly fragmented global governance system and to advocate for issues vital to its interests. This role also allows Brazil to strengthen its position as a global player, with President Lula highlighting key priorities including inequality, sustainable development, and reform of global governance. Brazil's unique position places it as a potential bridge-builder between the G7 and BRICS nations across these critical areas. With the conclusion of India's G20 presidency, the world's attention is now firmly fixed on Brazil, the third Global South nation to chair the G20 in a sequence that includes Indonesia, India, Brazil, and South Africa.

The G20 comprises the world's 20 largest economies, providing a crucial platform for coordinating global policies on matters such as trade, financial regulation, and climate change. Initially established in 1999 as a forum for central bankers and ministers from the most influential industrialized economies, its significance grew in the aftermath of the 2007/2008 global economic and financial crisis. Over time, the G20's agenda expanded to encompass a wide range of socio-political issues, including the Syrian Civil War, the refugee crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Despite representing approximately two-thirds of the world's population, contributing to over 75 percent of global trade, around 85 percent of global GDP and generating 78 percent of global carbon emissions, the G20 faces challenges stemming from deep divisions within its members’ economies. Recent events, such as the War in Ukraine and the U.S.-China competition, have created obstacles to achieving consensus, underscoring the forum's vulnerability.

During his nine months in office, President Lula has reaffirmed Brazil's commitment to democracy, fostered the European Union-Mercosur free trade agreement, expanded BRICS by welcoming new member countries, and navigated global political tensions like the U.S.-China rivalry and the war in Ukraine. Under his leadership, Brazil has been actively reintegrating itself into the global stage as a valuable diplomatic force, recognizing the increasingly multipolar nature of the world, and the G20 offers an ideal platform to further enhance its influence.

At the New Delhi Summit, Brazil's presidency outlined three key priorities: social inclusion and the fight against hunger; the energy transition and sustainable development across social, economic, and environmental dimensions; and reforming global governance institutions. President Lula stressed the importance of preventing geopolitical matters from dominating the forum's agenda, emphasizing, "a divided G20 is of no interest to us." Joint action, he believes, is essential to address the challenges of our time. Eight decades after the historic Bretton Woods summit in 1944, the 2024 G20 presents an opportunity for Brazil to leverage its history as a peaceful power and a mediator to drive progress, even amid differences.

A stark contrast to the past, Brazil's previous president, Jair Bolsonaro, appeared isolated at the 2021 G20 conference and was notably absent from the 2022 Indonesia Summit. In 2023, Brazil, under President Lula's leadership, has reclaimed its place on the global stage. Lula's positive interactions with other world leaders have elevated Brazil's international standing, setting the stage for a transformative G20 presidency. By emphasizing peace and cooperation as fundamental to the coming year's proceedings, Brazil has the potential to enhance the legitimacy of the G20 as a platform for international cooperation, contributing to the development of a multipolar world order and reaffirming its status as a global influencer. The greatest challenge ahead will be to act as a bridge between the G7 and the rest of the G20 nations.

Feliciano de Sá Guimarães is Academic Director at CEBRI (Brazilian Center for International Relations) and Professor at the University of São Paulo. Beatriz Pfeifer is Project Coordinator at CEBRI. This text was originally written for issue 85 of the WBO Newsletter, published on September 22, 2023. Fill in the form at the bottom of the text to access and subscribe to the WBO weekly newsletter in English.

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.