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— by Paulo Abrão, executive director of the Washington Brazil Office With two weeks to go before the runoff, Brazil’s election has acquired a new layer of tension: the referee is taking up almost as much space as the players. The decisions of Kassio Nunes Marques, who heads the Superior Electoral Court, especially regarding content favorable to Lula and campaign material from Flávio Bolsonaro, have turned the Electoral Court itself into a central political issue. The problem is no longer only the substance of each ruling, but the perception of asymmetry. When the president of the court acts alone against the majority position of his own colleagues, the risk is that the debate over who should win the election becomes contaminated by another question: who is ensuring that the contest is being refereed fairly? At the same time, Lula is trying to regain political initiative. The large demonstrations over the weekend showed a left once again mobilized in the streets, while the government is using its institutional agenda to put social issues back at the center of the campaign. The proposal to end the six-day workweek is the clearest example. Flávio Bolsonaro, who initially rejected the change, reversed course and announced that he would vote in favor of it. When one candidate is forced to embrace an issue set by his opponent, it is a sign that the campaign has succeeded in shifting the terrain of the contest. Lula is also betting on the power of the presidency to set the agenda. The new debt-relief program for individual microentrepreneurs shows a campaign trying to speak directly to small businesses, self-employed workers, and indebted families. Measures announced so close to the vote clearly risk being interpreted as electoral maneuvering, but there is also an undeniable political fact: after weeks spent reacting to the Supreme Court crisis and a succession of scandals, the government is once again driving the debate. In a race that seemed to be moving by inertia, recovering the ability to take the initiative may prove decisive. Flávio Bolsonaro, by contrast, is increasingly playing the clock. Leading in the polls, he is avoiding debates, limiting his exposure, and betting on the stability of an advantage that has already shown signs of narrowing in some surveys. Lula is pursuing the opposite strategy: he wants crowded streets, direct confrontation, and new issues capable of moving an election that remains open. The contrast between them is now strategic as well — one is trying to freeze the race; the other needs to disrupt it. The final stretch of the runoff will therefore unfold on three fronts: votes, agenda, and legitimacy. Lula needs to turn mobilization and initiative into electoral recovery; Flávio needs to prevent the race from changing; and the Electoral Court needs to convince the country that it remains the referee, not a player. The closer the result, the more important all three dimensions will become on the day after the election.
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