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Brazil’s 2026 elections, beyond a contest between candidates, are increasingly reflecting a broader dispute among the institutions responsible for sustaining the country’s democratic order.
In recent days, the Executive Branch, Congress, and the Supreme Court are increasingly showing signs of institutional confrontations. The Senate’s unprecedented rejection of a presidential nominee to the Supreme Court, followed by Congress overriding an executive veto on legislation related to the 2022 coup attempt and the judiciary’s subsequent suspension of the measure, illustrates a political system operating under growing friction among branches of government.
On the political front, the opposition has suffered significant damage following revelations involving alleged corruption practices linked to one of its main leaders, Senator Ciro Nogueira, who had been considered a possible vice-presidential running mate alongside Flávio Bolsonaro.
At the electoral level, Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro remain in a highly competitive race, though both face structural limits to expanding their support due to high rejection rates.
The international dimension of the election is also becoming more sensitive. The rapprochement between Lula and Donald Trump took place amid trade disputes; diplomatic tensions; and debates over security, strategic mining, and technology regulation. At the same time, different political actors are seeking to internationalize their narratives regarding democracy, freedom of expression, and institutional sovereignty, increasing the external exposure of Brazil’s elections.
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