Feb 16 2024 | Nº. 104

Editorial

This week, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva traveled to Egypt and Ethiopia. In Egypt, he met with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi, who emphasized the importance of his country’s relationship with Brazil. “We have agreed during our talks to bolster our bilateral relations in all political, economic, industrial, agricultural and cultural fields,” Sisi said, with new efforts to co-ordinate activities in areas of mutual interest being announced. The two leaders signed deals to boost Brazilian meat exports and collaborate on science and technology, hinting at broader trade horizons in the future. Lula further cemented Brazil's role as a bridge between South America and the Middle East. He reiterated his strong criticisms of Israeli attacks on Gaza, insisting that “there is no explanation for Israel’s behavior, which under the pretext of defeating Hamas, is killing women and children — something never seen in any war I am aware of.” 

In Ethiopia, Lula will be a guest at the African Union summit to be held from February 15-18. He is sure to stress Brazil’s historic debt to the African continent, a point he has long emphasized, as well as a Global South agenda that empowers developing nations. The shared membership of both Egypt and Ethiopia in the new, expanded BRICS alliance underscores the mutual interest in building cooperation within this growing coalition of emerging economies. This week’s visit was another chapter in Lula’s bid to revitalize Brazilian diplomacy after the isolation of the Jair Bolsonaro years. 

Meanwhile, in Brazil, explosive new revelations about the anti-democratic actions of former president Bolsonaro and his inner circle came to light. These included a statement from the Federal Police that at end of his term Bolsonaro apparently “transferred to the U.S. all his assets and financial resources…in order to ensure his stay abroad, possibly waiting for the outcome of the attempted coup d'état that was underway.” In response to what he claims is political persecution, the former president urged his supporters to take to the streets on February 25. “I want to defend myself from all the accusations that have been made against me in recent months,” Bolsonaro said in a video shared on social media, urging his followers to be peaceful but outspoken in their backing. The pace of revelations against the former president’s family, however, seems only to be gaining steam. On Thursday, the president’s youngest son was charged with fraud and suspected money laundering. While much remains uncertain about the legal fate of the former president, his ability to garner political support has been seriously called into question—perhaps more so than any moment since his emergence at the national level in 2018.

Highlights

• AMNESTY LAW. Federal Supreme Court Justice Dias Toffoli told representatives of the Vladimir Herzog Institute that he intends to start a series of public hearings in 2024 to debate the Amnesty Law in Brazil. This law was enacted in 1979 by the military dictatorship (1964-1985) to prevent the accountability of its agents and allow political dissidents who were in exile to return to the country. Although the Inter-American Court of Human Rights has already ruled on the illegality of the Brazilian Amnesty Law, the Supreme Court reaffirmed its validity in 2010. However, the court still needs to rule on a lawsuit filed in 2014 by the leftwing Party of Socialism and Freedom (PSOL), which argues that the Amnesty Law is unconstitutional. Toffoli is the rapporteur for this process.

• UNFRIENDLY CHAMBER. The Brazilian Congress resumed its work last week after the year-end recess. The return was marked by a tough speech by the president of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira, member of the right-wing Progressive Party (PP), aligned with the so-called “centrão” (big center), a large heterogeneous group of political parties, which exchange support for government priorities for greater access to public resources to be spent on their electoral base. In his speech, Lira said that the Lula government should not have total control over the budget in a sign that he intends to react if the government takes measures that threaten parliamentary amendments allotting funds for specific ends and Congress's discretion over these expenses. One of the government's fears is that Lira will make it difficult to approve economic measures or approve legislative business, as a way of complicating the Lula government's management of the economy. In Brazil, these legislative measures approved to create fiscal difficulties are nicknamed “fiscal timebombs.”

• POLICE VIOLENCE. At least 20 people were killed by police in Baixada Santista, a region on the south coast of the state of São Paulo in southeastern Brazil, during the Carnival holiday, between February 12 and 14. The deaths occurred in the context of police retaliation against the murder of one of its agents, Samuel Wesley Cosmo, who was a member of Rota (Rondas Ostensivas Tobias de Aguiar) – a particularly violent elite group, created during the dictatorship in the 1960s and 1970, to confront left-wing urban guerrillas. The increase in police violence in Baixada took place in a municipal election year and a political context in which mayors and city councilors want to show their voters that they have carried out actions with an impact, especially in the area of public security.

• CARNIVAL. Two samba schools – Vai-Vai from São Paulo and Portela from Rio de Janeiro – used the Carnival parade to denounce police violence in Brazil. Vai-Vai represented police officers in demonic costumes. In response, São Paulo police chiefs published a note criticizing the samba school, which was also accused of receiving funds from one of the leaders of the criminal group PCC (Primeiro Comando da Capital). In Rio, Portela invited a group of 16 mothers, whose relatives were victims of police violence, including Marinete Silva, the mother of Rio councilwoman Marielle Franco, murdered in March 2018. Violence against Indigenous peoples is also a theme in two other samba school parades in Rio: Salgueiro and Grande Rio.

• PRISON BREAK. Two leaders of the criminal faction Comando Vermelho (Red Command) escaped this Wednesday, February 14 from a maximum security federal prison located in Mossoró, Rio Grande do Norte in northeastern Brazil. There are four other prisons like this in Brazil. They were built in 2006 in the country to isolate and dismantle the leader structures of large criminal organizations, and had never previously recorded any escapes. The episode took place a few days after Ricardo Lewandowski took over the Ministry of Justice. Lewandowski removed the person responsible for the prison unit and appointed an intervener.

• DENGUE AND COVID. Dengue cases almost quadrupled in Brazil in the first six weeks of 2024, compared to the same period in 2023. There were more than 512,000 suspected cases this year compared to 128,000 last year. So far in 2024 there have been 74 deaths. At the same time, Covid numbers have increased. As of February 8, there were 194 deaths, a scenario that has not been recorded since April 2023. Those infected already exceed 36,000 with a sharp increase in last five weeks. Summer and the Carnival holiday favor the gathering of people and new transmissions. In the case of Covid infection is transmitted from person to person. In the case of dengue infections take place through the bite of a mosquito that proliferates where there is a sequence of rain and sun along with heat and stagnant water, which are common conditions throughout Brazil at this time of year.

NEWS FROM ORGANIZATIONS AND SOCIAL MOVEMENTS:

NEW LEADERS. RenovaBR is open for registration until February 28th for people interested in launching candidacies in the municipal elections in October this year. People who have never run for mayor and city councilor positions before, or those who have only served one term, can register. The course, created in 2017, has a total workload of 150 hours. All stages of the selection process are carried out via WhatsApp.

VACANCY OPEN. February 16 is the deadline for applications for the position opened by the Pólis Institute for “advocacy and engagement” consultants in the team responsible for “solid waste and agroecology.” The organization will be evaluating applications from Black people, Indigenous people, trans people and/or people with disabilities. The notice and form are available on the Instituto Pólis website.

HARASSMENT ON NETWORKS. The organizations Mulheres Negras Decidem and Preta Lab launched their Digital Care Guide in February. The publication provides guidance on how to protect yourself virtually. The recommendations were designed and created by Black women, with the aim of reaching the most diverse ages of those who want to take care of themselves both online and physically. The publication is available online for free and can be  downloaded.

Feature Article

By Ricardo Seitenfus*

The Serpent's Egg

The extraordinary stability of the political map of the Americas stands out when compared to other continents, especially Europe, the birthplace of two world wars. The editors of maps of the Old Continent rejoice as teachers and students are led to incessantly relearn about a fleeting reality. What was true for one generation becomes sacrilege for the next.

Applied to the Law of Treaties in the New World, the principle of pacta sunt servanda, (obligation to comply with what was agreed), the cornerstone of civil law, brought stability and permanence to our territorial borders. Although many of these were the result of bloody conflicts, agreements imposed by the victor, unequal treaties, corruption of diplomatic agents and other ills, they were and are untouchable.

It appears, however, that the historic tradition of inter-American relations is about to be broken by Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro Moros. In an extraordinary move, worthy of the greatest masters of international chess, without noise, without the sound of boots on the ground and armed only with his boldness, he appropriates Essequibo, which is equivalent to 2/3 of the territory of his Guyanese neighbor.

The victim of this South American Anschluss is one of the poorest countries in the Western Hemisphere, accused by Maduro of being a usurper in the service of “imperialism.”

A supposed “referendum” was hastily held; whose result, despite not being very competitive, was presented as the electorate's endorsement of the Madurista adventure. In addition to being a grotesque example of the singularities of South American dictators, well described by Gabriel Garcia Márquez, this consultation is an affront to the Law of Treaties. By the way, it has an ludicrous aspect in that the inhabitants of Essequibo or the Guyanese should be listened to and not the Venezuelans.

The theater of the absurd continues. By magic, Essequibo is incorporated into Venezuela with the following initiatives: Petróleos de Venezuela’s monopoly for gas and oil exploration in the region; creation of the High Commission for the Defense of Guyana Essequiba; publication and dissemination of the new map of Venezuela in schools and universities in the country; creation of the Guyana Essequiba Comprehensive Defense Zone; appointment of the sole Guyanese Essequiba authority; and social assistance program for the population and issuance of a new identity card for the citizens of Essequibo. From the outset, they are stripped of their Guyanese nationality and transformed into Venezuelans!

Like every dictator, Maduro has a simple objective: to create an external enemy to better cling to power. When Argentine general Leopoldo Galtieri invaded the Falkland/Malvinas Islands in 1982, he pursued the same objective and made a similar mistake.

Will Maduro have a different fate? With the exception of Washington and London, the rest of the world looks on in amazement, amidst surprised and dubious protests. Some, incredulous and apparently uncomfortable, try to hide their admiration for this work of art of international politics. Among them is Brazil.

There are, at least, three reasons that make Brasília unavoidable in this crisis. On the one hand, we are the only country to share borders with both contenders and the Essequibo region. Even a possible land military operation must necessarily involve Brazilian territory.

On the other hand, in 1904 Brazil accepted, although unfavorably, the Arbitral Award in the Pirara dispute with the United Kingdom, an integral part of the same Essequibo territorial dispute.

Finally, the most important thing: Maduro's strategy calls into question the intangibility of borders in South America, a founding principle of Brazilian foreign policy built by Baron do Rio Branco.

The uncompromising respect for law as an end and diplomacy as a means made Brazil the undisputed champion of territorial stability. In addition to gains estimated at 900,000 km², the tactic brought security and peace. Also notable was the Brazilian attitude towards the arbitration that did not give what was expected. This happened with the decision of the Swiss Confederation in the dispute to define the border with French Guiana and with the Pirara dispute regarding disputed territories of Roraima and former British Guyana. In both cases, we accept the decisions. What should prevail were the legal foundations and the law, and nothing more.

However, there are signs that the legacy of Baron do Rio Branco is being left aside by the current government in the supposed uproar regarding Essequibo, opening a window for possible future contestations, putting regional peace at risk.

By sponsoring negotiations between the parties, Brasília acts recklessly, granting undue importance to diplomatic means, when it should stick solely and exclusively to legal foundations.

What would these be? The first is respect for the 1899 arbitration that granted the territory to the United Kingdom. The second legal document to be respected in its entirety is the 1966 Geneva Agreement signed between London and Caracas, the validity of which was recognized by Georgetown on the occasion of its independence. Unfortunately, in the desire to free itself from its colony, the United Kingdom agreed to sign the document opening the door to a different judicial decision than that established in 1899. However, it was also defined that it will be solely and exclusively under the auspices of the UN Secretary General that the future of Essequibo will be decided.

Contrary to the response of voters consulted – and manipulated – by Nicolás Maduro Moros, UN Secretary-General António Guterres indicated that the International Court of Justice should rule on the case. This should be the inescapable Brazilian position.

Now is the time for law and not diplomacy. Otherwise, we will be incubating the serpent's egg, as is evident in the refusal of Bolivia and Suriname to sign the Rio de Janeiro Declaration of December 7, 2023, which defends regional peace and advocates a peaceful solution to disputes.

Ricardo Seitenfus has a PhD in International Relations from the Institut de Hautes Études Internationales of the University of Geneva. He is a professor and author of two dozen books published in Spanish, French, English and Portuguese. He was Vice-President of the Inter-American Legal Committee and Representative of the OAS in Haiti (2009-11) and Nicaragua (2011-13).

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.