Editorial

Brazilian Elections: Confident Victors and Wavering Losers

From former president to president-elect, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva prevailed on Sunday, October 30 with over 60 million voters against about 58 million for the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro. Almost immediately, public attention turned to the matter of governmental transition and the broader question of what kind of administration Lula would put together. Notwithstanding lingering attempts by disgruntled Bolsonaro supporters to cast the country into turmoil by blocking highways and calling on the armed forces to intervene, there is no plausible scenario in which Lula will be barred from taking office. This is, in part, due to prompt international recognition of Lula’s win. Close Bolsonaro allies like Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas, the governor-elect of São Paulo, Brazil’s wealthiest and most populous state, and Speaker of the House Arthur Lira also quickly acknowledged Lula’s victory, leaving the president with little space to maneuver against the outcome of the election.

But that doesn’t mean Bolsonaro himself swiftly admitted defeat. In fact, 48 hours elapsed before the president said anything at all about the election. Finally, on Tuesday, November 1, he held a press conference at the presidential palace that lasted less than three minutes and did not include a congratulations to the president-elect. Rather, Bolsonaro simply said he would respect the Constitution and described the protests of his supporters as the result of indignation but urged them not to embrace the “tactics of the left.” Under his government, he proclaimed, a genuine right-wing has emerged in Brazil. The speech, in a sense, sounded more like an attempt to secure the loyalty of his followers for another presidential bid in four years than an attempt to put to bed the campaign that just ended.

Lula’s team, however, moved quickly to put the transition into motion. Shortly after Bolsonaro’s short speech, his chief of staff Ciro Nogueira appeared to say that the president had authorized him to start preparing the handoff of power. In a key early sign of the kind of government he will assemble, Lula named his vice-presidential nominee and former governor of São Paulo Geraldo Alckmin to oversee the transition. Almost immediately, discussions between Lula’s allies and Bolsonaro’s erstwhile partners in Congress were being reported or openly discussed. A major priority for the incoming Lula administration, for example, is to maintain the BR$600 emergency cash payments that Bolsonaro had instituted with a year-end expiration date. Extending that deadline will require congressional action since the budget for 2023 has already been submitted. Yet a new spending deal appears likely.

There are also unseemly bargains Lula will likely have to make right away for the sake of getting his unprecedented third term off to a fast start. It is unlikely that Lula will be able to end the so-called secret budget instituted under Bolsonaro, a practice that took pork barrel spending to astronomical new heights and ceded tremendous power over budgetary allocations to individual members of Congress in the name of governability. Lula will also have to accept the fact that it will be very difficult to place close allies in the most decisive legislative positions since there is no left-wing majority in Congress. Lula’s Workers’ Party (PT) is a major force, to be sure, in particular when combined with the ranks of other left-wing parties. But the broad amorphous center to far-right forces are formidable, all the more so given Bolsonaro’s coattails in this election. Lula faces many challenges and opportunities as he begins shaping his administration. Whether they like Lula or hate, Brazilians know that no politician, for better or for worse, is more comfortable navigating these treacherous waters than the man who will be sworn in on January 1.

Highlights

• LULA SPEAKS AGAINST FASCISM, DEFENDS PLURALISM, AND THE AMAZON. After his victory was confirmed, the president-elect spoke at a hotel in São Paulo. Afterward, he addressed thousands on Avenida Paulista, one of the city's main thoroughfares. Lula said that his victory on ballots belongs to all who "love democracy" and "want a fairer country." Lula also stated that his election represents the defeat of "authoritarianism and fascism." According to Lula, Brazil is ready to resume its leading role in the fight against the climate crisis, protecting local biomes, especially the Amazon Forest. He also said that his government is open to international cooperation to preserve the Amazon.

• INTERNATIONAL RECOGNITION IN DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACY. As soon as Lula's victory became irreversible, foreign ambassadors at the headquarters of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), monitoring the counting of the electronic voting machines, informed their governments. Representatives from several countries said there was a prior arrangement between the embassies. The quick recognition of Lula as president-elect by the international community would hamper any attempt by Bolsonaro to contest the election result. President Joe Biden congratulated Lula about 40 minutes after the results of the polls and even before the first speech of the president-elect. Bill Clinton congratulated Lula on his victory and praised the Brazilian electoral system.

• POLLS OVERVIEW. After being criticized for having underestimated the votes for Jair Bolsonaro in the first round, the country's leading research institutes came closer to the results of the polls in the final vote last Sunday, October 30. Among the 11 companies that carried out surveys for the presidential race last week, eight projected the third election of Lula (Worker's Party), and four hit the result within the margin of error. The MDA institute, which conducts research for the National Transport Confederation (CNT), practically nailed the result. In a survey released on Saturday, October 29, the institute attributed 51.1% to Lula and 48.9% to Bolsonaro. The margin of error was 2.2 percentage points.

• INCONTESTABLE RESULT. The president of the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), Alexandre de Moraes, said last Thursday, November 3 that the result of the ballot box is incontestable and that criminals who attack the electoral system will be held accountable. According to Moraes, movements that blocked roads after the elections were "criminal." He also highlighted that almost 125 million voters – about 80% of the total – went to the polls, which he classified as "massive participation" by the electorate.

• LULA PICKS GERALDO ALCKMIN TO COORDINATE THE TRANSITION TEAM. Alckmin will command a team with 50 names, which will mix technical and political staff to dialogue with members of the government of Jair Bolsonaro. The Worker's Party's leaders and the coalition parties that elected Lula should compose the group. The transition team will be operating out of the Bank of Brazil Cultural Center building in Brasília.

Feature Article

How to Carry Out the Difficult Transition from Bolsonaro to Lula

Cooperation, which is a characteristic of a governmental transition in a democracy, is a challenge in times of polarization.

With the 2022 general elections over, it's time to talk about the transition of power. Given the political heat of recent weeks, everything indicates that we will be facing a difficult transition, in which governance for the coming years will depend on strategies for managing agendas and partnerships. This is especially the case given the delay of current President Jair Bolsonaro in recognizing his defeat, and demonstrations of some of his supporters, such as the blockade of some of the main national highways by truck drivers.

Cooperative transitions are marked by cordiality, transparency, and even joint work between outgoing and incoming teams. In the case of Brazil, the outgoing government follows the provisions of Law 10,609/2002, which establishes several dozen positions for the transition team of the newly elected government. Physical space is provided for this team to work. The transition team is allowed access to information systems and reports about public policies. Public officials are expected to assist the new team. In this way, one government passes the baton to the next.

Adversarial government transitions, by contrast, are marked by the absence of information and dialogue. The elected government runs the risk of working in the dark until the inauguration, only to start a painful process of taking over the administration of the state. Anecdotal cases illustrate extreme scenarios in which rulers leave the government having cleaned out their offices in which computers and files “disappear.” At the same time, public employers can be unwilling to collaborate and/or are afraid of retaliation. In extreme cases, the destruction of public property can take place. But there are ways to mitigate the harm of an adversarial transition.

First, it is important to remember that the campaign team is not the government transition team. The first wins the elections; the second prepares the groundwork for the future government. Although there can and should be overlap between members of these teams, they should not be confused, as they have different purposes. The transition team is an embryo of the future core leadership of the new government. It will need to coordinate legislation with politicians and will need to establish a political agenda, coordinate information on public policies, and manage communications with the public. On the eve of the inauguration, this team also starts the strategic management and monitoring of government programs. In an adversarial transition, the elected official and his or her team especially need to rely on other forces, such as congress, the judiciary, the bureaucracy, social movements, and the media. There must be good information in order to know when to use each card in that deck.

The relationship with the current and re-elected representatives of the legislative houses needs to be established as soon as the result is declared. It is especially necessary to articulate the measures that will be need to respond to any fiscal timebombs left by the previous government.

In the current context, there should be an awareness of the means for resuming political dialogue on a different basis from its predecessor. The cost of governance is very high, the new congress tends to be uncooperative, and the states will be where strong opposition can develop. In a presidential system that relies on a coalition of political parties in congress, it’s necessary to include congressional representatives in the discussion of the government structure and its programs, invite them to public events, give them visibility, and commit them to electorally approved agendas. It is also important to define some legislative measures that will guide the first months of the new government that have already been set forth during the transition period.

It is essential to use the months of November and December to articulate proposals, identify who is who, and establish the objectives to be pursued in the first hundred days. If the elected government loses itself in emergencies, in internal disputes, and in its reactive position to weaknesses and errors, the polarization in the country could generate a political impasse. In addition to issues related to political sentiments, Brazil has institutions that can contribute to improving people's quality of life, establishing more harmonious relations with the environment, and expanding the economy.

The career bureaucracy, a stable framework of public servants, is one of the institutions that can contribute to access to information, the articulation of proposals, and the structuring of public policies. Respect and listening to others are key. The Directory, better known as the “who's who” of ministries, should be in the hands of the transition team. The areas of management of the ministries must be the object of special care, since chaos in the early stages of the new administration can make the machine unmanageable for some time, harming the precious first months of government. Identifying leaders in these groups of public servants is important to reduce resistance and risks of animosity, and still gain time in the accumulation of knowledge that will be necessary to get the machine running in the following year. Observing the learning curve is important, as isolated neophytes in public administration can get lost in bureaucratic clutter.

Social movements, representatives of civil society from the most diverse areas, need to remain mobilized. And that means engaging in active listening, making agreements, and opening spaces. It is necessary to keep the mobilization that guaranteed the election alive so that it remains visible, legitimizing the new government and thus reducing the costs of negotiation with other actors.

From the time the transition period begins, the elected government will need to prioritize its communication agenda. The media will be entirely focused on the new proposals, directions, and vision of the future. The team responsible for communication needs to be proactive, calibrating positive announcements and indications for ministries with popular appeal and with the mishaps and errors that are inevitable. It is necessary to establish a clear distinction between the present and what will be the future. A united message is essential. Dissenting speeches, can corrode the image of the elected president’s administration and with it that of their future government. Acts and images that demonstrate national truces and commitments are strategic.

All this effort is a necessary preparation for the beginning of the government. The first hundred days are crucial. It is in this period that the government says what it intends to do. A successful transition, even with mishaps due to lack of information and boycotts of all kinds, will be fundamental for this purpose. This is not the time to rest or take a vacation. We have a new elected government in Brazil. Democracy won!

Luna Bouzada Flores Viana is a specialist in public policies and government management and is a doctoral candidate in administration.

Frederico de Morais Andrade Coutinho is a specialist in public policies and government management, with a Master’s degree in administration. He is also the vice-president of the National Association of Specialists in Public Policy and Governance (ANESP).

This article is also available in Portuguese; it was published in Coluna Diálogos Públicos.

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.