Oct 3 2025| Nº. 176

Editorial

On Wednesday, October 1, Brazil’s Chamber of Deputies unanimously approved a flagship bill raising the income tax exemption threshold to R$5,000, fulfilling a central campaign promise by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Drafted by former speaker Arthur Lira, the measure also extends partial relief up to R$7,350 while increasing taxation on annual incomes above R$600,000, a formula expected to exempt roughly 16 million taxpayers beginning in 2026. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad has framed the proposal, now headed to the Senate, as a cornerstone of Lula’s social agenda, one designed to mitigate the country’s enduring inequalities.

The vote comes amid shifting public opinion. A PoderData survey released Wednesday shows Lula’s government with 51% disapproval and 44% approval—a modest improvement compared to July, when disapproval reached 53%. The poll underscored the weight of recent shocks in shaping perceptions: Donald Trump’s July announcement of steep tariffs on Brazilian goods and Jair Bolsonaro’s September conviction for attempting a coup. While Lula’s disapproval remains higher than his approval, the figures mark his lowest negative rating since January and suggest limited but meaningful breathing room as his administration moves to consolidate its policy agenda ahead of 2026. Indeed, while the right-wing camp remains riven by internal disagreements and struggles to settle on a candidate for next year, Lula has already consolidated support on his side, allowing him to begin negotiating the alliances likely to prove critical in a close reelection race.

Internationally, Haddad confirmed this week that he will travel to Washington from October 13–17 to attend IMF and G20 meetings, where he is expected to meet with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to address ongoing tariff disputes. The trip could also serve as the backdrop for a long-anticipated meeting between Lula and Trump, with Haddad noting that both teams are already in discussions though no date has been confirmed. The potential meeting underscores the administration’s delicate balancing act: delivering on social and fiscal promises at home while managing fraught economic and diplomatic ties with Washington. Together, the tax reform’s legislative progress, improved poll numbers, and the high-stakes U.S. visit highlight Lula’s effort to project stability and competence in the face of domestic and international challenges. The tax exemption was a major win for Lula’s larger policy agenda. A breakthrough with Trump would represent another significant achievement that could well push the polls further in Lula’s favor.

Highlights

• Methanol in Beverages. Brazil has recorded several cases of methanol poisoning in recent days. The substance was found in adulturated alcoholic beverages served to customers in several states. At least 43 people were hospitalized, and seven deaths associated with the case are still under investigation. The Ministry of Health issued an alert, and the Ministry of Justice announced that the Federal Police have opened an investigation into the incident. The case coincides with the recent discovery that the PCC, São Paulo's main criminal faction, now controls several sectors of the formal economy, from bakeries to gas stations, motels, and financial institutions. As a result, rumors have surfaced that the faction could be involved. São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas was quick to dismiss this hypothesis, while others still consider it a possibility.

• Bang-bang Bonus. The Rio de Janeiro Legislative Assembly approved a bill granting cash rewards to police officers who kill criminal suspects. The state governor, Cláudio Castro, is now facing pressure from sectors of organized civil society, such as the NGO Human Rights Watch, to veto the project entirely. In 2024, Rio police killed 703 people, an average of almost two people per day. From January to August of this year, 470 people have already been killed. Black people, who make up 58% of the Brazilian population, are 86% of the victims of these lethal actions.

• Flotilla and agreement. Brazil criticized Israel's treatment of the flotilla that sought to deliver humanitarian aid to Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. In a statement, the Foreign Ministry mentioned the use of hunger as a weapon of war, defended the right to free passage of vessels in international waters, and reiterated the crime of genocide. Furthermore, it mentioned that several Brazilians were aboard the intercepted boats, emphasizing that everyone's safety is now Israel's responsibility. That same week, Brazilian Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira testified before the Brazilian Congress that the country supports Donald Trump's peace plan for the Gaza Strip. He also said that Lula could speak with the American president at any time and in any format. The dialogue between the two was raised by Trump in a speech at the UN General Assembly in New York a week ago.

• Congressional vacancies. The Supreme Federal Court prohibited an increase in the number of federal congressional representatives in Brazil for the 2026 elections. The decision contradicts a proposal made by the National Congress itself, which intended to increase the number of members – from the current 513 to 531 – starting with the next election. The case began in 2023, when the state of Pará demanded an increase in the number of deputies to comply with a constitutional provision that calls for the proportional distribution of seats based on the population of each state. Instead of redistributing the existing seats, maintaining the total number of 513, Congress decided to increase the number of seats. The Supreme Court overturned the measure based on the argument that changes to electoral rules cannot be made within less than 12 months of the election.

News from ABO and social organizations and movements:

Delegation to the US. The delegation of 19 Brazilian civil society organizations, organized by the WBO, concluded this Wednesday a long mission that included meetings in New York and Washington. The group brought the debate on democracy, human rights, the environment, indigenous peoples, and local communities to the United States through high-level meetings with representatives of the U.S. Congress, academics, activists, trade unionists, and diplomats. This was the first Brazilian delegation made up of members of civil society to visit the United States since Donald Trump announced hostile measures against the Brazilian judiciary. Previously, only a delegation of businesspeople and another, of government officials, had been received.

Special Envoys of COP30. One of the delegation's highlights was the meeting in New York with the COP30 Special Envoys: Denise Dora (Human Rights and Just Transition), Janja Lula da Silva (Women), Jurema Werneck (Racial Equality and Peripheries), and Joaquim Belo. At the meeting, the organizations highlighted the importance of protecting the Cerrado (savannah), a biome fundamental to biodiversity, water security, and climate balance, and the need to internationalize its defense, emphasizing that guaranteeing the rights of Indigenous peoples, true guardians of forests and biomes, is inseparable from the climate fight.

Indigenous Truth Commission. Another point raised was the importance of creating an Indigenous Truth Commission to investigate the crimes committed by the 1964-1985 dictatorship against Indigenous peoples. The initiative will be launched nationally on October 21st through a campaign led by the Articulation of Indigenous Peoples of Brazil (Apib).

Public conferences. One of the highlights of the delegation's agenda in New York was the public conference "Brazil: Democracy and the Challenges Faced by the Environmental, Indigenous, Local Community, and LGBTQIA+ Movements," held at the People's Forum, with representatives from all the organizations and movements that are part of the group. In Washington, a similar event was held at Georgetown University, with nearly 50 people in attendance.

A packed agenda. The delegation also met with Congressman Jim McGovern, one of the authors of the Magnitsky Act. The Democrat criticized the far-right's misuse of this instrument to shield former President Jair Bolsonaro and others involved in the failed coup attempt in Brazil. At the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the group discussed relevant aspects of the Bank's engagement strategy with civil society organizations. The agenda also included visits to the Atlantic Council, the Brazil Foundation, the Office of the Special Rapporteur on Freedom of Expression of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, and the Brazilian Mission to the Organization of American States (OAS). The Brazil Office Instagram profile provides a complete record, in text, photos, and videos, of the delegation's work in the US.

Those affected by dams. From November 6th to 12th, Belém will host the 4th International Meeting of People Affected by Dams and the Climate Crisis, with the participation of 350 delegates from 62 countries. The meeting, taking place just days before the start of COP30, will discuss and coordinate the internationalization of the struggle of those affected by dams, popular energy sovereignty, and the construction of an alternative project to the capitalist system. Read more at the link.

Contamination of the Tapajós River. The Health and Joy project participated this Wednesday, September 30 in the public hearing that discussed legal avenues for protecting the Tapajós Basin, held at the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies' Environment and Sustainable Development Committee. In his speech, Caetano Sacanavino highlighted the mercury exposure of the Munduruku people, where 6 in 10 indigenous people have levels above the tolerable level, with pregnant women having levels five times higher than the average, and newborns up to three times higher. Watch the hearing via the link.

Feature Article

How US Threats to Venezuela Would Affect Brazilian Leadership in South America

By Carolina Silva Pedroso*

If there was any doubt about the hostility of Donald Trump's policy toward Latin America, his speech at the UN General Assembly on September 23 was illuminating. After discussing the alleged threats posed by Latin American immigrants, the US president targeted his attacks on Venezuela. He claimed that the attacks on Venezuelan vessels had blocked the entry of drugs into his country and, consequently, prevented the deaths of thousands of its citizens. In the same vein, he categorically stated that "terrorist" drug trafficking organizations were the “worst gangs in the world.” The message was brief but direct: the escalation of tensions in the Caribbean will continue.

For Brazil, there are at least two major reasons for concern regarding its exercise of regional leadership. The first concerns the fundamental principles of its international presence, such as the peaceful resolution of disputes and the consolidation of a zone of peace within its geographic boundaries. For decades, Brazilian foreign policy has conceived of a natural vocation to lead, if not Latin America as a whole, then South America. Beyond its continental dimensions and economic weight, Brazil shares borders with virtually every country on the subcontinent and has incorporated a conciliatory role into its diplomatic practice to avoid conflicts between its neighbors.

This notion is reflected in the South Atlantic Zone of Peace and Cooperation (ZOPACAS), an initiative to maintain peace in the southern Atlantic Ocean, fostering shared governance to prevent external interference. Although the Caribbean—a region that has been battered by US military equipment—is not strictly speaking part of the South Atlantic, it is geographically very close to this area of ​​peaceful expansion led by Brazil.

Furthermore, this represents a break with the agreement reached at Tlatelolco in 1967, in the aftermath of the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, when the Cold War nearly led the world to a nuclear catastrophe. Driven by the activism of the Mexican Foreign Ministry, but also by strong advocacy from Brazil, the treaty prohibited the development of nuclear technology for military purposes in the region. Since then, Latin America and the Caribbean have become a denuclearized zone.

In an additional protocol, it was established that extraregional powers would submit to these terms, which implied that they should not use nuclear weapons against signatory countries. Therefore, the presence of US nuclear submarines, supposedly to combat Venezuelan drug trafficking, is a breach of commitment and jeopardizes the integrity of Latin America as a space free of weapons of mass destruction.

Caracas' immediate response was to activate its defense system, closing airspace, and enlisting civilians to join militias and military training. The asymmetry of forces may, on the one hand, give the impression of a US advantage in the event of a confrontation with Venezuela. On the other hand, history shows that military power is not always decisive for a successful incursion. Maduro seems to know this and is willing to arm military and civilian personnel side by side to defend the country's sovereignty. Once again, historical examples demonstrate that the humanitarian prospects of this type of confrontation are bleak.

Although unlikely, the outbreak of a direct conflict raises the second cause for concern for Brazil. From a practical standpoint, there would be direct effects on the national territory, especially in the northern portion. It is not in the country’s interest to have a possible war so close to a border already crisscrossed by various issues, which would generate greater instability and increased migratory and humanitarian pressure.

Beyond the direct consequences, Brazilian diplomacy would strive for peaceful solutions, both due to its own institutional tradition and the willingness of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's government to seek conciliation in various forums, despite Brasília's strained relations with the two main actors in the dispute. If the outcome were positive, the country would be catapulted to an even more prestigious position as a relevant global player.

However, the worst-case scenario must be considered: an overflow of the conflict beyond the Venezuelan Caribbean, the involvement (direct or indirect) of extra-regional powers such as Russia and China, and, finally, the possibility of violent internal power struggles in Caracas. In this case, Brazil's ability to forge feasible agreements in the face of so many areas would be severely tested, with risks of profound damage to its mediating role at the regional and global levels.

As with any hypothetical exercise, the prospects tend to seem exaggerated. However, in a turbulent world, it is legitimate to question Brazil's ability to exercise peaceful regional leadership. The presence of nuclear weapons in the Caribbean is like a spark in a flammable area, but whose combustion potential could be neutralized by the Fire Department. It remains to be seen whether Brazil would have all the necessary skills and resources to perform this noble role in such a challenging context.

*Carolina Silva Pedroso is a professor in the Department of International Relations at the Paulista School of Politics, Economics, and Business at the Federal University of São Paulo (EPPEN-UNIFESP) and a researcher at the National Institute of Science and Technology for Studies on the United States (INCT-INEU).

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.