Editorial

The Emerging Scenario for the Runoff

Brazilians will return to the polls on October 30, this time to decide between just two candidates, Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. There were plausible indications that the race might end last Sunday with the first round of voting. The polls that closed out the campaign showed Lula with somewhere around fifty percent of valid votes. Meeting that mark would have made him the outright winner, obviating the need for a run-off between the top two finishers. Ending instead with about forty-eight percent of the vote, the former president finished more or less in line with the polls. What the polls did not and could not have captured was the apparent swing at the last minute to the incumbent Bolsonaro from other candidacies that had failed to take off. Bolsonaro outperformed expectations as a result, doing better than polls indicated he would even as he ultimately finished second. No sitting president had ever lost in the first round of voting. 

Despite being initially startled by the show of force from Bolsonaro’s far-right movement, progressive forces united around Lula and his Workers’ Party readily came back together and sketched out their strategy for the next four weeks. An important plan to ensure Bolsonaro’s defeat is to double down on areas of strongest support for Lula. The Northeast in particular rejected the current president, giving Lula almost 22 million votes compared to 8.8 million for the incumbent. About 1.5 million voters in that region either annulled their vote or cast blank ballots. Lula has signaled his intent to travel more and hold more rallies. He has urged his supporters to talk to their friends, neighbors, relatives, and co-workers. The idea is that there are still more votes to be had where he is already strong.

The more populous Southeast region is more competitive, having gone for Bolsonaro by about 2 million votes. In São Paulo, Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party made it to the run-off against Bolsonaro’s former infrastructure minister Tarcísio Gomes de Freitas. This makes the race for São Paulo, Brazil’s most populous and wealthiest state, all the more important during the run-off. In Rio de Janeiro state, Lula managed to secure the support of influential figures like Eduardo Paes, mayor of Rio de Janeiro, whose centrist Social Democratic Party decided to allow its members to support either Bolsonaro or Lula. The path to victory is clearer for Lula but it does not mean Bolsonaro cannot still win.

Bolsonaro’s strategy relies on reanimating many of the same tropes that helped him get elected four years ago. In particular, he has sought to drive a wedge between Lula and evangelical voters, who went overwhelmingly for Bolsonaro in 2018. This explains Lula’s early moves in the run-off to appear alongside religious figures and portray Bolsonaro as an opportunist exploiting the religious faith of his followers for political gain. With familiar battlelines drawn, this run-off will be a test of mobilization and the ability of both candidates to break through their respective bubbles of support. Both must expand the electorate that brought them to the second round without alienating the base of support that made them so competitive in the first round. The support Lula has already received from former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Senator Simone Tebet, who finished third in the presidential race, is likely to help Lula among women and moderate conservatives in the South and Southeast. Lula’s campaign has already signaled that Tebet in particular will figure prominently in the campaign against Bolsonaro. Her politics are not necessarily in line with the average Workers’ Party voter, but during the campaign she displayed a visceral disgust of Bolsonaro that could help convince voters skeptical of Lula to nevertheless embrace his candidacy. 

The televised debates—the candidates have agreed to two—will likely play an outsized role in shaping the narrative of these final weeks. Bolsonaro attacked Lula aggressively in the last debate before voting began, a strategy that riles up his base but risks backfiring. Lula has been effective at debates in the past using humor and indignant outrage in equal measure. Seeing these two figures of such divergent backgrounds and persuasions go head-to-head will be intensely dramatic. Needless to say, the stakes could not be higher.

Highlights

• RUNOFF ELECTION. Right-wing Bolsonaro and former President Lula emerged from the first-round field of 11 candidates to face off in a second and final round on October 30. Bolsonaro outperformed the polls on Sunday, October 2, capturing 51,072,345 votes or 43.2 percent, while the former union leader fell short, getting 57,259,504 votes or 48.4 percent.

• ELECTORAL POLLS UNDER SCRUTINY. Brazilian pollsters have been targeted after the results of the first round of elections in Brazil. For weeks, many of Brazil’s major polling companies showed Bolsonaro trailing far behind his left-wing challenger, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro campaign is particularly aggressive in questioning the accuracy of polling companies, arguing that he, in some polls, was predicted to win a dismal 34 percent of the vote, and ended up with 43.2 percent, while some scenarios gave Lula a 14-point lead and even suggested he could win in the first round of voting.

• TEBET, CIRO AND FHC WITH LULA. Workers’ Party candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has added more support to his candidacy in the run-off election. Simone Tebet announced her support for Lula, saying, "I recognize his commitment to democracy and the Constitution, which I cannot say about the current president (Jair Bolsonaro). My support will not be simply joining up. My support is for a Brazil that I dream will belong to everyone." In the first round on October 2, the center-right senator of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) obtained 4.9 million votes (4.16 percent). The center-left Ciro Gomes of the Democratic Labor Party (PDT) has also expressed his support for Lula. Gomes came in fourth place after Tebet with 3.5 million votes (3 percent). Former president Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2002), a founding member of the Party of Brazilian Social Democracy (PSDB) also announced that he would support the former president. "In this second round, I vote for a history of struggle for democracy and social inclusion. I vote for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva."

• NEW PARLIAMENT. Last weekend's elections also defined the Brazilian legislature beginning in 2023. President Jair Bolsonaro's Liberal Party (PL) will have the most seats in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate: Of the 513 seats in Congress, the Liberal Party elected 99 federal deputies — 23 more than it has today. The Brasil da Esperança Federation (FE Brasil), which includes the Workers’ Party (PT), the Green Party (PV) and Communist Party of Brazil (PcdoB), and which will act in the Chamber as a single coalition, elected 80 deputies (12 more than the 68 that the parties currently have together) — and will have the second largest bench in the House. The following parties appear in order of bench size: União Brasil (58), Progressives (47), Brazilian Democratic Movement/MDB (42), Social Democratic Party/PSD (42), Republicans (41), Brazilian Social Democracy Party/Citizenship Federation (18) and Democratic Labor Party/PDT (17).

• DIVERSITY IN CONGRESS, Two trans women were elected as congresspersons: Erika Hilton, from São Paulo's Socialism and Liberty Party/PSOL, and Duda Salabert, from Minas Gerais' Democratic Labor Party. Also, five indigenous were elected: Célia Xakriabá (Socialism and Liberty Party/PSOL of Minas Gerais), Juliana Cardoso (Worker's Party of São Paulo), Paulo Guedes (Workers’ Party of Minas Gerais), Silvia Waiãpi (Liberal Party of Alagoas) and Sonia Guajajara (Socialism and Liberty Party/PSOL of São Paulo).

• ABORTION AND FREEMASONRY. Once deemed an opportunity to deepen the political conversation in the country, the runoff election is so far defined by conservative religious cosmovisions and prejudices. A Google Trends report shows the top search terms between October 5 and 6 about candidates Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro. The trending topics in social networks this week as reflected in Google searches show that voters want to uncover news about Bolsonaro’s involvement with Freemasonry. Key words more often searched in connection with ex-president Lula and his party are abortion, churches and bathrooms — fake news circulates that the Workers’ Party would create unisex bathrooms for children in schools. 

• HIGHER EDUCATION UNDER ATTACK. For years, universities have permanently been targeted by Bolsonaro's government. On the second day of the second round of the elections, Jair Bolsonaro's government blocked R$ 2.4 billion in funds from the Ministry of Education higher education budget. The impacts fall on the activities of the federal public universities and federal institutes of education, which have already suffered downsizing in previous fiscal years. Following harsh protests in universities and other social sectors, minister said today funds will be released

• BRAZILIAN VOTE ABROAD. Voting in the Brazilian elections took place in 70 countries, out of a total of 181 electoral zones outside of Brazil. According to the election results posted on social media on election night, Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) won in 29 countries, while Jair Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party won in six countries. The Brazilian former president was victorious in China, Australia, New Zealand, Poland, Palestine, and Hungary, despite Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s declaration of support for Bolsonaro, among other nations. The incumbent president up for re-election won more votes in Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Japan, East Timor, Mozambique, and Greece. Japan is the third largest overseas electorate, with 76,570 registered Brazilian voters.

• BRAZILIAN VOTES IN THE US. In 2022, there was a dramatic increase in people voting for the Brazilian left in the United States as compared to the 2018 election. This can be explained in part by a reaction to four years of Bolsonaro’s government, the popularity of Lula, and the efforts by Lula’s supporters to mobilize people to make sure that their papers were in order to vote in the United States. There also was a significant get-out-the-vote campaign. Although it is estimated that there are more than a million Brazilians living in the United States, turnout for those eligible to vote is relatively low.  Brazilians can vote in 10 polling stations, located at the consulates distributed throughout the country, but this means that many have to travel hundreds of miles in order to vote. It is notable that the total number of voters for Bolsonaro in 2022 actually decreased 556 votes from the first round in 2018 (from 38,404 to 37,848), whereas the increase in votes cast for Lula in comparison to the vote count for Workers’ Party presidential candidate Fernando Haddad in 2018 was 17,524 (from 3,017 for Haddad in 2018 to 20,541 for Lula in 2022). Lula won in Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Washington, D.C., and came short by 372 of winning in New York. 

• GENIAL/QUAEST POLL. The most recent poll of Genial/Quaest reveals that Lula has 54 percent of valid votes in the 2nd round, while Bolsonaro has 46 percent of the valid votes. A survey of 2,000 people took place between October 3rd and 5th; the margin of error is 2 percentage points.

• DATAFOLHA POLL. In the first DataFolha poll for the second round, held this week, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Worker's Party) scored 49% of the voting intention, and Jair Bolsonaro (Liberal Party) 44%. In addition, 2% of respondents declared to be undecided. Considering only valid votes, Lula reaches 53% and Bolsonaro 47% in the second round.

Feature Article

Bolsonaro Is One Step Closer to a Power Grab

By Andre Pagliarini

The stark rebuke to the reactionary government of Jair Bolsonaro, predicted by the polls and desired by millions, didn’t come to pass. Brazil is on edge.

It wasn’t all bad. In Sunday’s presidential election, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the center-left former union leader who governed Brazil ably from 2003 to 2011, took roughly 48 percent of the vote, a healthy performance within the final polls’ margin of error. But Mr. Bolsonaro exceeded his presumed ceiling, taking 43 percent — far above previous predictions — and setting up what will most likely be a closer than expected runoff on Oct. 30. What’s more, several of Mr. Bolsonaro’s former cabinet ministers and allies across the country rode his coattails to success in local elections.

The results showed beyond any doubt that Mr. Bolsonaro is no accident of history. It might have been possible to dismiss his surprising election four years ago, when he rose to power on a wave of widespread anti-left sentiment, as a fluke. No longer. Underlying his vague appeals to “God, fatherland and family” is a bedrock of support, spread across the country and encompassing a wide cross-section of society. Irrespective of the result at the end of the month, the spirits Mr. Bolsonaro animated and the politics he cultivated are here to stay.

Mr. Bolsonaro’s beginnings in Brazilian politics were ignominious. An army captain, he first came to national attention in the mid- 1980s as the armed forces were beginning a tactical retreat from political life after two decades of military rule. A leading newsmagazine revealed that Mr. Bolsonaro, resentful about poor remuneration, was planning to bomb a barracks in Rio de Janeiro. The goal, he told the reporter with remarkable directness, was to embarrass the unpopular army minister.

After a flurry of publicity and an internal investigation in which Mr. Bolsonaro appeared to threaten the journalist for testifying against him, the incident was largely forgotten. But the macho bluster was typical of Mr. Bolsonaro, a lackluster soldier whose outsize political ambitions often rubbed senior military figures the wrong way. Even so, his military background proved electorally useful. In 1988, after the restoration of Brazilian democracy, he began a political career as a representative of the interests and perspectives of the military Everyman.

Over time, his appeals assumed a more general right-wing tenor, embracing the conservative thrust if not the theology of evangelical Christianity. Mr. Bolsonaro’s politics — a medley of bigotry, authoritarianism, religious moralism, neoliberalism and freewheeling conspiracy theorization — were largely sidelined in the wake of military rule. But 13 years of progressive Workers’ Party governments gave rise to discontent on the right. To figures there, the left’s repeated electoral victories smacked of foul play and discredited the very notion of democracy itself. At the head of this charge, possessed of inimitable ideological bombast, was Mr. Bolsonaro. In Latin America’s biggest democracy, he now speaks for tens of millions.

Sunday underscored this sorry state of affairs. Mr. Bolsonaro’s endorsed candidates overperformed everywhere, claiming major victories against candidates backed by Mr. da Silva in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Indeed, the first round of voting suggests not only that the political project that prevailed in 2018 — in a word, “Bolsonarismo” — is alive and well but also that it has room to grow. Considering Mr. Bolsonaro’s disastrous handling of Covid-19, his consistent threats to Brazilian democracy and the rash of corruption scandals surrounding him and his family, this is a grim prospect.

Yet not an inexplicable one. Though there’s a lot we don’t know — the census, delayed by the pandemic and institutional sabotage, is over a decade old — some things are clear. While Mr. Bolsonaro retained his overwhelming advantage in the western and northwestern parts of the country, the most striking aspect of the election was how cleanly it fell along established lines of regional support. In the southeast, a traditional bastion of conservative politics, Mr. Bolsonaro prospered. In the northeast, a redoubt for the Workers’ Party, Mr. da Silva excelled. Mr. Bolsonaro’s success has been to retain and extend the traditional conservative base of support, enthusing it with his bitter denunciations of progressives, the justice system, journalists and international institutions.

Yet for all of Mr. Bolsonaro’s show of strength, the most likely outcome remains a victory for Mr. da Silva. After all, no runner-up in the first round of voting has ever won the second. The candidates who finished third and fourth — the center-right Simone Tebet and the center-left Ciro Gomes — will probably support Mr. da Silva, too. The former president’s relish for campaigning, evident in an upbeat message he wrote on Twitter once the results were clear, is another advantage. Four weeks in campaign mode should suit him well.

But extending the campaign is a dangerous proposition. Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters have already engaged in numerous acts of violence against Mr. da Silva’s supporters. It would not be surprising if “Bolsonarismo,” a movement rooted in violent rhetoric, claims more lives before Oct. 30. Meanwhile, President Bolsonaro, gifted time and greater credibility by his surprising success, can continue plotting against Brazilian democracy. Several hurdles remain in the way of a power grab by Mr. Bolsonaro. But he has just cleared a major one.

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Andre Pagliarini (@apagliar) is an assistant professor of history at Hampden-Sydney College, a fellow  at the Washington Brazil Office and a columnist at The Brazilian Report.

This article was also published at the New York Times on October 5.

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.