Apr 4th 2025| Nº. 160

Editorial

On April 2, President Donald Trump introduced a sweeping set of new, supposedly reciprocal tariffs on goods from all over the world. The impact of these policies on Brazil will be considerable although likely not as damaging as it could have been. Initially, Brazil was a major target in Trump's trade war. But Brazilian diplomats have reportedly worked assiduously behind the scenes to point out that the United States actually enjoys a trade surplus with Latin America’s largest nation and that increased tariffs would be bad for both sides. As journalist Miriam Leitão reported on Thursday, April 3, Brazil presented itself to U.S. officials as one of three “clean countries”—along with the UK and Australia—with whom the United States has a trade surplus worth billions of dollars. This argument appears to have succeeded, with Brazil facing a relatively modest tariff of only 10%, compared to higher rates of 24%-46% imposed on Southeast Asian countries. While Brazil’s trade with the U.S. now represents only 12% of its total international exchanges, it remains crucial due to high-value exports like aircraft and machinery. Brazil's negotiators have managed to minimize the damage, even finding opportunities in sectors like footwear, where tariffs on competitors might allow Brazilian products to regain market share. However, the broader global impact of Trump's tariffs has raised concerns about stagflation, a combination of rising inflation and slow economic growth, which is expected to hit economies worldwide.

The economic stakes of Trump’s policies are extremely high for the administration of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with polls this week indicating a further deterioration of his political standing.  A new survey from Quaest shows that both Lula and his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro face high rates of rejection, each with 55%. Only 41% of voters would support Lula for the 2026 presidential election, down from 47% in January. The poll also shows that a majority, 62%, believe Lula should not run for re-election, while 35% support his candidacy. The upcoming election scenarios are highly competitive, with Lula remaining closely matched against several potential opponents, including São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and former First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro. To regain momentum, the government is focusing on strategic communication efforts, aiming to demonstrate improvements in living standards of most Brazilians.

Lula has also been active on the world stage. On a state visit to Japan, he took concrete steps toward opening the Japanese market to Brazilian beef and sought to press negotiations for a trade agreement between Japan and MERCOSUL. Next, he traveled to Vietnam, the fifth-largest consumer of Brazilian agricultural products, aiming to strengthen the commercial and diplomatic partnership between the two nations. Lula is hoping that his efforts to boost Brazilian trade abroad will lead to increased business opportunities—not to mention political benefits—at home.

Highlights

• Information leak. This week, the Federal Police indicted Eduardo Tagliaferro, a public servant accused of leaking confidential information from Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. According to investigators, it was Tagliaferro who handed over to the press in August 2024 messages in which Moraes informally asked his assistants to produce reports in the Electoral Court to support the decisions he had been making against Bolsonaro supporters in the Supreme Court. At the time, the case had a major impact and was treated by the far right as proof that Moraes was acting outside the law to persecute them.

• Coup plotters. This week, Alexandre de Moraes made two high-profile decisions regarding those involved in the attempted coup d'état on January 8, 2023. In one of them, he released 12 defendants from prison, replacing their prison sentences with alternatives such as house arrest, the use of ankle bracelets, and community service. In another decision, Moraes ordered the arrest of Léo Índio, Jair Bolsonaro's nephew, who had fled to Argentina when his passport had already been revoked by a court decision due to his participation in the January 8th coup.

• Memory. The Brazilian Army complied with a court order and removed from its 4th Light Infantry Brigade in Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, a plaque alluding to the 1964 coup d'état. The name “March 31st”, the date of the coup, was given to a military brigade stationed at the barracks, because it was from this city that troops involved in the deposition of then-president João Goulart departed. Prosecutors who filed the lawsuit also wanted the brigade's military personnel to take courses on human rights and democracy, but the Attorney General's Office did not agree with the request.

• Resistance. On the anniversary of the 1964 coup, President Lula published a message in which he said that March 31 is “a day to remember the importance of democracy, human rights and the sovereignty of the people to choose their leaders at the ballot box and chart their future. And to remain strong and united in their defense against the authoritarian threats that, unfortunately, still insist on surviving.” The speech contains an encrypted message to former President Jair Bolsonaro and his supporters who are defendants in a trial for attempted coup d'état in 2023.

News from ABO and social organizations and movements:

United Nations. The 58th session of the UN Human Rights Council concluded this week in Geneva. The Brazil Office was actively involved, working to support the participation of several partner organizations, many of whom made oral presentations in the Council plenary session. In its advocacy, the Brazil Office sought to emphasize the harmful effects of the actions of the extreme right on human rights, especially for the most vulnerable communities. In addition, the organization also participated in a side event that discussed the forecasts for COP30, which will take place in November in Belém do Pará.

Inter-American System. The course promoted by the WBO and the Behner Stiefel Center for Brazilian Studies at San Diego State University on the functioning of the Inter-American Human Rights System begins this Friday. The inaugural lecture will be given by the president of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights, José Luis Caballero Ochoa, on “The Origins of the Inter-American Human Rights System.” The course is given virtually and free of charge once a week, over eight sessions, always on Fridays, except on holidays. Learn more at the link.

Policy Paper. The WBO published its Policy Paper 2025 on Monday, March 31. Each year this document provides an x-ray of Brazil's situation in the areas of democracy, sustainable development, immigration, Brazil-US economic relations and global governance. The paper offers a series of analyses on the relationship between Brazil and the United States in a context of accelerated change in global governance structures and international alliances. The WBO Policy Paper also provides recommendations to strengthen diplomatic and strategic engagement between the two nations. Read more at the link.

Guides for democracy. The Pact for Democracy announced this week the launching of the second volume of the Guides for Democracy series, which shares lessons learned, challenges and strategies in defending the Democratic Rule of Law in Brazil. “The series seeks to systematize and share our work, so that it can serve as a reference for those who, in any corner of the planet, also fight for freer, fairer and more democratic societies,” said the Pact’s board of directors in a statement. To read the Guide, click on the link.

Fellows’ news. President Lula decided to nominate Professor Fábio de Sá e Silva to be a member of the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) of the Organization of American States (OAS). The body is responsible for monitoring and reporting human rights violations in the Americas. Sá e Silva is an assistant professor of International Studies and Wick Cary Professor of Brazilian Studies at the University of Oklahoma, as well as a research fellow at the Brazil Office.

Feature Article

Holding up the Sky or Walking Towards the Precipice

By Lucas Cravo*

Attacking the territorial rights of indigenous peoples is taking a step closer to the end of the world. It seems alarming at first glance, but it is a catastrophic scenario that is approaching, according to reports from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Indigenous lands, which are the largest areas of climate security in Brazil, face a legal theory known as the “temporal framework,” which holds that Indigenous peoples only have the right to constitutionally guaranteed territories if they had settled there on the date of the promulgation of the Federal Constitution of 1988. This thesis is trying to be incorporated into the Brazilian legal system by the three branches of government.

In the executive branch, Opinion 001/2017, made the application of “framework” mandatory throughout the federal public administration. In the legislative branch, Law 14.701/23 is trying to enshrine the “temporal framework” in established law. In the judiciary, through the judgment of the case of Extraordinary Appeal 1,017,365, which had its effect extended to all similar cases through the recognition of its general repercussion, and which refuted the thesis of the temporal framework, in favor of Indigenous territorial rights; and more recently through the reopened discussion in the joint judgment of Direct Action of Unconstitutionality (ADI) 7582, 7583, 7586, Declaratory Action of Constitutionality (ADC) 87, and Direct Action of Unconstitutionality by Omission (ADO) 86.

Opinion 001/2017 has not yet been revoked and remains in force. Law 14,701/23 was created by Bill 2,903/23, approved in September 2023 by the National Congress. The judgment on general repercussions in the Brazilian Supreme Court, which was also issued in September, made the thesis of the temporal framework unconstitutional, and therefore incompatible with the Brazilian legal system. In October, President Lula vetoed the thesis of the Temporal Framework in Bill 2.903/23, regarding the Federal Constitution of 1988 and its interpretation by the Supreme Court. In December 2023, the National Congress overturned the presidential veto, insisting on making legal what had already been declared unconstitutional.

The temporal framework thesis is an aberration that has very little legal basis. Carolina Santana demonstrates in her doctoral research how the temporal framework is yet another link in a chain of arguments designed to diminish indigenous rights. Its objective is to establish an arbitrary timeframe in which an Indigenous people should be on their lands to be entitled to them, establishing the date of October 5, 1988, the same date as the promulgation of the current Brazilian Federal Constitution. In her dissertation, Santana analyzed the proceedings of the National Constituent Assembly of 1987-88, interviewed Supreme Court justices and delegated, and reviewed judicial cases involving the annulment of land demarcations. When cross-referencing the data, it becomes clear that the thesis of the temporal framework did not reflect the will of the Constituent Assembly members.

As Indigenous peoples are guardians of the forests and, therefore, of the climate, this means legal uncertainty that will end a constitutionally guaranteed right for hundreds of Indigenous lands that will have direct effects on the climate crisis. Although the temporal framework thesis is unconstitutional in its proposal, since Art. 231 of the Federal Constitution determines that indigenous territorial rights are original and therefore existed even before the formation of the Brazilian State, it has been used in many judicial cases to request and explains the annulment of court cases about the demarcation of Indigenous lands.

Because this thesis puts the human rights of Indigenous peoples and property rights in dispute — whether legally acquired or defrauded through land grabbing — there have been court decisions that have support it and others that have refuted it. For this reason, the Brazilian Supreme Court took up a specific case, whose ruling  was extended to all similar cases. This is Extraordinary Appeal 1,017,365/SC, in which there is a conflict between the Xokleng Indigenous people of the Ibirama-Laklãnõ Indigenous Land and a public foundation in the state of Santa Catarina. In September 2023, this judgment was concluded refuting the temporal framework thesis and affirming the constitutional rights of Indigenous peoples. The debate was reopened, when it should not have been, due to the joint judgment of ADIs 7582, 7583, 7586, ADC 87 and ADO 86.

Indigenous lands and Conservation Units are the main pockets of climate security that we have in the world. Defining the unconstitutionality of the temporal framework is necessary not only out of respect for Brazilian constitutionalism and the constituent will of the National Constituent Assembly of 1987-88, but also for humanitarian reasons. In ruling on RE 1.017.365, the Brazilian Supreme Court has ruled on the largest climate dispute on the planet, considering the impact it will have on the demarcation of Indigenous lands. The Brazilian Constitutional Court had in its hands the case that will define not only respect for the fundamental rights of Indigenous peoples protected by the constituent will, but also whether we are one step away from holding up the sky a little longer, as Davi Yanomami says, or approaching the end of the world as we know it. Our generation is witnessing the effects of the climate crisis, as we see year after year in the forest fires in California, the heat waves in Europe, or the drought of the Amazon rivers. It is now once again up to the Brazilian Supreme Court to assert its constitutional authority and decide whether we are closer to climate collapse or whether Brazil will continue to play its global leadership role in socio-environmental protection.

*Lucas Cravo holds a PhD in Law from the University of Brasília. He is currently a visiting scholar at New York University, as a fellow of the Fulbright Commission Brazil Doctoral Dissertation Research Award program. He holds a master’s degree in law from the University of Brasília with a period of technical visit at Flinders University, as a fellow of the CAPES Academic Excellence Program. He holds a degree in Law from the Fluminense Federal University, with a period of academic mobility at the University of Coimbra. He is a partner at Cravo & Santana - Advocacia, a public interest law firm that works in defense of socio-environmental rights.

Feature articles express the opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the editors or WBO.