|
The week of party conventions defined the central shape of Brazil’s presidential election. Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro, Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos were formally chosen by their parties, consolidating a contest that combines polarization between the government and Bolsonaro’s political camp with candidates seeking to occupy alternative spaces on the right. There are also candidates from smaller parties, particularly on the left, but the main forces in the presidential race are now positioned. Each convention sought to present its own political narrative. The Liberal Party’s convention confirmed Flávio Bolsonaro as his father’s political heir, but it also exposed the limits of that succession. No other party formally joined his coalition; the candidate still needs to consolidate his ticket; and the main center-right parties preferred to preserve their autonomy. The presence and prominence of Argentine President Javier Milei reinforced the far right’s international connections, but also generated diplomatic tensions and, to some extent, overshadowed the candidate himself. The convention showed that Flávio inherited Bolsonaro’s electorate and political symbolism, but not necessarily his capacity to build broader party alliances. His main challenge will be to move beyond his father’s most loyal voters. His weakness is his political isolation, aggravated by the fallout from the Banco Master case and by the possibility that new corruption-related revelations or investigations may once again alter the dynamics of the campaign. This is not to anticipate facts that are still unknown, but to recognize that Flávio’s exposure to investigations and controversies makes his candidacy particularly vulnerable to unforeseen developments. The Workers’ Party convention, in turn, was marked by the unity of the progressive camp around Lula’s candidacy and by the decision to retain Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate. In his seventh presidential campaign, Lula framed the election as a defense of national sovereignty, democratic institutions, and his administration’s social policies. The strength of this unity, however, contrasts with an unanswered question: whether the left is capable of building a political succession beyond Lula’s personal leadership. His main challenge will be to translate the government’s economic and social results into a tangible improvement in voters’ daily lives. His weaknesses include accumulated rejection, the difficulty of renewing the progressive camp, and the potential electoral impact of investigations involving his son, Fábio Luís Lula da Silva, known as Lulinha. The investigation examines allegations of influence peddling and corruption that have not been proven. His defense disputes the accusations, and Lula has said that his son should answer to the investigation without receiving privileged treatment. Ronaldo Caiado was confirmed by the Social Democratic Party (PSD) alongside Gilberto Kassab, forming a ticket that seeks to combine executive experience, party organization, and a conservative identity not subordinated to Bolsonaro’s political movement. The central theme of his launch was the attempt to break the polarization between Lula and the Bolsonaro family by presenting himself as a right-wing alternative with greater institutional experience and political negotiating capacity. His challenge will be to convert the PSD’s nationwide presence into effective political and electoral support. His weakness is his limited national visibility compared with opponents who enjoy greater name recognition and more consolidated political identities. The New Party convention confirmed Romeu Zema and sought to associate his candidacy with fiscal responsibility, economic liberalism, and his administrative experience in Minas Gerais. Zema is competing with Flávio Bolsonaro and Caiado for conservative voters and must demonstrate that he can transform his regional and party-based identity into a nationally competitive presidential alternative. His main challenge will be to nationalize a political trajectory strongly identified with Minas Gerais. His weakness is his limited capacity to build political and social alliances beyond the liberal and conservative electorate already close to the New Party. Renan Santos and the Mission Party opened the convention period with a candidacy that seeks to represent a non-Bolsonaro right, built on the experience of the Free Brazil Movement. His convention was marked by concerns about public security and threats the candidate says he received from criminal organizations. The campaign seeks to combine the fight against organized crime, criticism of traditional politics, and a message of generational renewal. His challenge will be to turn digital visibility and ideological activism into votes in a nationwide election. His weaknesses are his limited party structure, limited television time, and difficulty reaching voters beyond highly politicized circles. In an election still dominated by male candidacies, the female vote will be decisive. Women constitute the majority of Brazil’s electorate, yet they remain underrepresented in positions of power and are absent from the main presidential candidacies. This makes it even more important to observe how each campaign responds to issues such as income, caregiving, health, public safety, violence against women, reproductive rights, and equal opportunity. For all candidates, the challenge will be to move beyond generic messages and demonstrate a genuine capacity to engage with the social, regional, and generational diversity of Brazilian women. Some issues remain unresolved. Smaller parties may still conclude their conventions by August 5, confirm additional candidates, form alliances, or withdraw candidacies announced during the pre-campaign period. Some running-mate selections and coalition arrangements also remain pending. Parties and coalitions must submit their registration requests to the Electoral Court by August 15. Electoral campaigning will be authorized beginning on August 16. The first round will take place on October 4 and, if necessary, the runoff on October 25. There is also uncertainty affecting all candidacies: the extent of international actors' involvement in the campaign. Expectations of political, communications, and digital support for Flávio Bolsonaro from the Donald Trump administration and leaders of the global far right have fueled concerns about attempts to influence Brazilian public opinion, delegitimize electoral institutions, or prepare arguments to contest the result in the event of defeat. International support for a candidate does not constitute unlawful interference; the line is crossed when foreign governments or networks seek to pressure institutions, manipulate public debate, or predetermine recognition of the popular will. Recent tensions with the United States and Javier Milei’s active participation in the Liberal Party convention show that the international dimension will not be peripheral in this election. The political result of the conventions is therefore an election with two dominant poles, but not one limited to them. Lula begins with a broad and unified coalition, although he remains exposed to the government’s political wear and to investigations affecting his family circle. Flávio Bolsonaro has a significant social base and relevant international support but enters the campaign politically isolated and vulnerable to new controversies. Caiado, Zema, and Renan are seeking to demonstrate that there is room for a third alternative. With the internal selection process now largely complete, the contest is no longer about who will be a candidate, but about which candidacies can complete their tickets, survive crises, win the female vote, respond to unexpected developments, and preserve the legitimacy of the electoral process in the face of domestic and international pressures.
|
