What is the Legal Status of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil?
By David Tangerino*
Former President Jair Bolsonaro was indicted on February 18, 2025 by the Office of the Attorney General (PGR) for committing several crimes, including an attempted coup d'état, abolition of the democratic rule of law, and criminal organization, along with 33 other people. The Brazilian Supreme Court (STF) unanimously accepted the indictment on March 26, 2025, thus making him a defendant.
In summary, the accusation includes acts between July 29, 2021 and January 8, 2023. The initial milestone is a live broadcast by Bolsonaro, in which he attacks the electronic voting system without evidence in addition to claiming interference by Ministers of the STF and the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) in the elections. The basic text of the live broadcast is attributed to the then director of the Brazilian Intelligence Agency (ABIN), Alexandre Ramagem.
Linked to the speech, there was both a scheme to spread disinformation and to design administrative acts – the Attorney General's Office (AGU) would promote opinions that would protect civil servants, including those of the Federal Police, who refused to comply with “manifestly illegal” orders from the judiciary. Similar statements were made on August 3 and 4 of the same year and in the following years.
On September 7, 2021, the date of Brazil's Independence Day celebrations, Bolsonaro warned the then President of the STF, Luiz Fux, that “either the head of this power disciplines his own, or this power may suffer what we do not want”.
In 2022, a recording of a ministerial meeting on July 5 deserves to be highlighted. In addition to ordering all those present to publicly attack the electoral system, he announced that he would call a meeting with foreign ambassadors in Brazil to denounce the never-proven fraud in the elections, which took place on July 18, 2022). General Augusto Heleno stated that he had spoken with a Director of ABIN to infiltrate agents in the electoral campaigns. In this meeting, he stated that “if we have to turn the tables, it will be before the elections. (…) We will have to act. Act against certain institutions and against certain people.”
On October 30, 2022, the day of the second round of the general elections, the Federal Highway Police (PRF) implemented blitzes under the pretext of investigating allegations of vote buying that were carried out disproportionately throughout the country, massively favoring locations where Lula had received the most votes in the first round, according to previous mapping. The blockades were only lifted when the then-President of the TSE, Alexandre de Moraes, threatened to arrest Silvinei Vasques the head of the Federal Highway Police.
After Lula won the election, Argentine Fernando Cerimedo went live a few days later, on November 4, giving voice to a dossier prepared with false information, reiterating the rhetoric of fraud. The content was widely disseminated by members of the alleged criminal organization, despite the fact that – as pointed out in a message presented by collaborator Mauro Cid – they knew that no evidence had been found.
In November 2022, the “Green and Yellow Dagger” plan was drawn up, which foresaw the murder of Lula, his vice president, Geraldo Alckmin, and Alexandre de Moraes, whose death was said to be imminent). Operation Luneta was also discovered, strongly articulated around a document formally disguised as a State of Defense, but which imposed an illegal intervention in the TSE with the removal of justices. Said draft was allegedly presented to the commanders of the armed forces on 12/6/2022, with rejection by the army and prompt support by the navy.
At the same time, Bolsonaro's Liberal Party filed a lawsuit with the TSE to annul electronic voting machines manufactured before 2020, claiming that Lula would have gained an advantage over his opponent. Curiously, the annulment would only apply in the second round.
Finally, on January 8, 2023, people, who were mostly already camped in front of military buildings in Brasília, marched to Praça dos Três Poderes (Plaza of the Three Powers), were not stopped by the police forces, and vandalized the headquarters. The accusatory hypothesis is that the crowd would create a chaotic situation of chaos, triggering the imposition of the Law and Order Guarantee Operation (GLO), under the responsibility of the armed forces.
Following the criminal procedural rules, upon receipt of the complaint, the oral evidence production phase begins, first with prosecution witnesses, then defense witnesses, the interrogation of the collaborator (Mauro Cid, Bolsonaro's former aide-de-camp) and the other defendants. Except for the need to produce evidence about circumstances or facts that became known during the oral evidence phase, a period is opened for the PGR to present its arguments, and then for the defenses to state its case. The trial is public. Since a panel of the Supreme Court will hear the case, there is little possibility of appeals. Infringement appeals – to be judged by all the justices – would depend on two acquittal votes, out of the five on the panel. They would not be admissible if the divergence is about preliminary matters or penalties.
If convicted, Bolsonaro's sentence could range from 12 years and 8 months to 36 years and 8 months. In any case, the initial sentence would mean imprisonment. The trial is expected to take place in 2025.
*David Tangerino is a lawyer and professor at State University of Rio de Janeiro.
This article was written for issue 164 of the WBO newsletter, dated April 28, 2025. To subscribe and receive free weekly news and analysis like this, simply enter your email in the field provided.
