Oil at the Mouth of the Amazon: Present-Day Emergencies, Sovereignty, and Social Justice
By Mahatma Ramos dos Santos* and Ticiana de Oliveira Alvares**
Petrobras's announcement of hydrocarbon discoveries in the Mouth of the Amazon (Foz do Amazonas Basin, FZA) sedimentary basin has brought the oil and gas (O&G) sector's role in national development back to the center of the debate. Amidst a landscape of multiple crises and disputes centered on energy issues, this discovery takes on strategic importance for national sovereignty and security.
The overlap of two geopolitical spheres—fossil fuels and strategic inputs for the low-carbon economy—intensifies arms, technological, industrial, and commercial races, increasing uncertainty about the speed of the global energy transition. This scenario reinforces the perception that fossil fuels will remain strategic inputs for the global energy supply in the coming decades.
Brazil possesses significant advantages for positioning itself within the emerging energy and industrial landscape. It is self-sufficient in oil, has a highly renewable energy matrix, and possesses a greenhouse gas emissions profile largely linked to land-use changes and illegal deforestation. Furthermore, its territory holds strategic inputs that can drive a new low-carbon industry. This presents us with the challenge of positioning the country—sovereignly and competitively—in the construction of a new domestic and international energy paradigm, in which oil and its production chain serve as vehicles for a just, sovereign, and popular energy transition.
Oil and natural gas account for approximately 44% of the country's domestic energy supply. Despite recent production records, national O&G output is projected to decline over the next decade. This challenges us to plan, regulate, and expand exploration activities today to replenish reserves for the future. To enable exploration and production in the Mouth of the Amazon, we must acknowledge its unique socio-environmental characteristics and meet licensing requirements for sedimentary basin assessment and risk-mitigation plans. This process must ensure IBAMA's (the Brazilian environmental agency) autonomy, as well as social participation and consultation, in accordance with ILO Convention No. 169.
If the size of the reserves and the commercial viability of exploration and production are confirmed, a new debate will arise regarding the destination and appropriation of this wealth, as well as its role in national development and for future generations. With this in mind, Ineep and FUP presented the "2027-2031 Oil and Gas Sector Public Policy Platform: Energy Sovereignty and Just Transition in Brazil" to society. In this platform, we highlight the need for long-term energy planning characterized by greater social participation and state coordination regarding the pace of oil exploration and production and the allocation of oil revenues. Consequently, this discovery should be viewed as an opportunity to enhance national energy security and counter the trend of denationalizing the country's reserves.
Furthermore, it should drive regional and sustainable development—particularly in the North and Northeast regions—address energy poverty, and promote projects focused on decarbonization, adaptation, and new low-carbon technological pathways.
Regarding the Equatorial Margin basins, including the Foz do Amazonas, if high exploratory potential is confirmed, the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE) must designate the area as "strategic." This would allow for exploration under the Production Sharing regime, thereby ensuring greater state coordination and enabling Brazilian society to capture the resulting oil revenues. Another important measure is restoring the original institutional design of the production-sharing model, as stipulated in Law No. 12.351/2010. We also propose ending the ANP’s "Permanent Offer" model for exploration blocks to plan the pace of activities in line with the national interest, curb the commodification of Brazil's exploration potential, and reverse the process of denationalizing national reserves.
To ensure a better distribution of the wealth generated, we suggest establishing a Strategic Management Committee for Oil Revenues to enhance the transparency and efficiency of the current fund system; redirecting unallocated revenues from the Pre-Salt Social Fund toward just transition goals; and creating a Just Energy Transition Sovereign Wealth Fund, financed by windfall profits from E&P companies operating in Brazil. The challenge, therefore, is to link the wealth of the oil and gas sector to public instruments that promote national sovereignty, energy security, research and innovation, environmental preservation, social justice, a just transition, and control over the Brazilian Amazon.
*Technical Director of Ineep and member of the CDESS. He holds a PhD and a Master’s degree in Sociology from UFRJ.
**Technical Director of Ineep; she holds a PhD and a Master’s degree in International Political Economy from UFRJ.
