The Challenge of Global Technological Infrastructure in the Brazilian Electoral Context
By Cynthia Picolo* and André Lucas Fernandes**
Who will control the artificial intelligence infrastructure built upon Brazil’s water, energy, minerals, and territories? The answer should not depend on Washington’s strategies or those of technology companies, but rather on the conditions Brazil sets for hosting them. The country possesses key attributes for this expansion, such as a predominantly renewable energy matrix and abundant natural resources, including critical minerals used in technology supply chains. However, this availability exists alongside ecological limits, inequalities in access, and competing needs.
Against this backdrop, Congress approved Bill 278/2026, establishing the Special Taxation Regime for Data Center Services (REDATA), and Bill 2.780/2024, creating the National Policy on Critical and Strategic Minerals. The Senate approved both bills on September 1 and 2, 2026, respectively, and sent them to President Lula to sign them into law. Although they have distinct scopes, the bills are linked by the theme of digital infrastructure, since critical minerals are essential to the data center sector. Both proposals aim to attract investment to expand Brazil’s participation in these technology supply chains.
A central issue lies in the terms of this integration. Framed by narratives of sovereignty and innovation, both bills advanced through opaque negotiations without incorporating substantive changes to strengthen safeguards, such as requirements for prior environmental assessment, cumulative impact analysis, transparency regarding water and energy consumption, and free, prior, and informed consultation that respects local territorial realities.
The rush to facilitate investment reveals a political choice to approve incentives before defining how this expansion should unfold, what limits it must respect, and who will be held accountable for its impacts. In the case of REDATA, this choice entails foregoing over R$ 7 billion in public revenue between 2026 and 2028, without territorial planning to understand how—or even if—the resulting wealth will be distributed. Civil society research and analysis indicate that these risks are already manifesting geographically.
Data center projects are being announced in areas that could impact Indigenous peoples, such as the Anacé in Caucaia (Ceará), the Mbyá-Guarani in Eldorado do Sul (Rio Grande do Sul), and riverine and fishing communities in Belém (Pará). This expansion extends into territories already strained by water scarcity, flooding, and other climate-change effects.
These local conditions and Brazil’s competitive advantages are part of an international contest, evident in statements by the U.S. President and the aggressive expansion strategies of major U.S. technology companies. The United States seeks to diversify its mineral supply and reduce dependence on China, while its companies look for regulatory conditions favorable to expanding computing infrastructure. Commercial pressures, diplomatic negotiations, and dialogue with Brazilian leaders link these interests to the electoral race.
In Brazil’s 2026 presidential race, the use of natural resources and the country’s role in global AI supply chains are gaining prominence in candidates' proposals and their discussions with the U.S. government. In May, Lula discussed rare-earth investments with Trump, advocating for diversified partnerships and value-added production within Brazil. That same month, Flávio Bolsonaro stated he had proposed a strategic partnership on critical minerals to the U.S. President, positioning the country as an alternative to China.
In the domestic debate, Flávio links cheap energy, mineral utilization, and data center attraction, promising to add value to national production. Lula emphasizes developing Brazilian AI and cloud companies, local content, domestic computing capacity, and mandatory socio-environmental safeguards.
Although both advocate for cooperation, their stated conditions and objectives differ. The electoral debate must clarify how these proposals will translate into concrete, verifiable commitments regarding technological development, public benefits, and the effective protection of territories.
The risk is that, under the promise of technological leadership, the country might finance a new form of digital colonization, committing its resources to an infrastructure over which it will have little influence. Avoiding this path requires making choices now, before incentives harden into dependencies that are difficult to reverse. As a nation that champions environmental causes in forums like COP, Brazil plays a pivotal role in steering clear of "all-or-nothing" traps and offering the planet new, integrative processes.
*Cynthia Picolo is the Executive Director of the Public Policy and Internet Laboratory (LAPIN) and a member of UNESCO’s AI Ethics Experts Without Borders. She is a lawyer holding a master’s degree in public international law from Leiden University (Netherlands) and is a specialist in Data Protection, Governance, and Artificial Intelligence (Academy of European Law; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam; CGI.br; Center for AI and Digital Policy). She is a member of various groups, such as the Rights on the Net Coalition (CDR), the Federal Government’s Central Data Governance Committee (CCGD), CGI.br’s Chamber on Emerging Technologies, Sovereignty, and Innovation, IEEE Working Group 7007.1, and the Federal Public Defender’s Office Research Group on Ethics, Human Rights, and AI. She has experience in multilateral forums such as the G20, BRICS, the OAS, and the UN (including the UNFCCC/COP). She also served as a consultant for UNESCO on implementing the Readiness Assessment Methodology (RAM) for AI ethics in Brazil.
**André Lucas Fernandes is a lawyer and a university professor in Law and Technology graduate programs at UFPE, UPE, and CESAR School. He holds a Doctorate in Law, focusing on Artificial Intelligence, the history of legal concepts, and innovation, with a thesis addressing the issue of AI legal personality. He founded the Recife Institute for Law and Technology Research (IP.rec).
